Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
ODAC Newsletter – Feb 15
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
(15 February 2008)
The reborn ODAC newsletter. Very comprehensive. The introductory news summary (at the original) is a nice touch. It helps us to make sense of the firehose of energy-related stories.
The ODAC staff was still putting finishing touches on the newsletter as I posted.
UPDATE (Feb 17) Corrected URL. -BA
CERA: Action needed to avoid oil crisis, Hess chief says
Sam Fletcher, Oil & Gas Journal
Oil companies, oil-producing countries, and consumers need to act now to avoid the oil crisis that is coming within the next 10 years, said John B. Hess, chairman and chief executive of Hess Corp.
“It is not only a matter of demand. It is not only a matter of supply…. We need to take steps on both fronts, and we need to start today,” Hess told an overflow crowd Feb. 12 at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ annual energy conference in Houston.
“Given the long lead times of at least 5-10 years from discovery to production, an oil crisis is coming and sooner than most people think. Unfortunately, we are behaving in ways that suggest we do not know there is a serious problem,” Hess said.
That’s partly because of conflicting viewpoints. “Some say that there is a large endowment of resources and that there is nothing to worry about. Some say that we have already hit peak oil, and there’s little we can do. Others say that the rapid development of renewables will fill the gap between demand and supply and reduce our carbon footprint in the process,” Hess noted. However, he said, “It is imperative that we change our mindset, our sense of urgency, or the consequences will be severe.”
(15 February 2008)
Crunch Time for Mexican Oil
Peter Millard and David Luhnow, Wall Street Journal
MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s oil industry is in decay and production is falling. But it doesn’t appear the country is going to do anything about it anytime soon.
President Felipe Calderón has made energy overhaul his top legislative priority for this year. But the evidence of the past few weeks suggests he faces long odds at a time when high oil prices mask the country’s looming production crunch.
Mexico’s declining production could have a wide impact on oil markets, which are already under pressure from higher demand and price constraints, pushing oil from $30 a barrel to near $100 in …
Mexican oil output has declined steadily from its peak of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2004 and is expected to fall to 2.8 million barrels a day by the end of this year. If that continues, Mexico will likely stop exporting oil within seven years. The country relies on oil exports for about a third of government revenue. And Mexico is the third-largest supplier of oil to the U.S., behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.
(15 February 2008)
Behind a paywall. Contributor Jeffrey J. Brown writes:
Mexico, like the UK and Indonesia, had relatively high consumption as a percentage of production, at recent peak production, in the vicinity of 50%. The UK went to zero net exports in seven years, Indonesia in eight years. I agree with the Wall Street Journal’s estimate that Mexico will be approaching zero net oil exports in the 2015 time frame. Our most recent article on net oil exports
Bartlett attacks U.S. energy research budget as “business as usual”
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, website
Senior Member of the House Committee on Science and Technology Committee Admonishes Administration Official
—
Congressman Roscoe G. Bartlett, a senior member of the House Committee on Science and Technology Committee, criticized the Administration’s Proposed Fiscal Year 2009 Budget request for energy research and development as “business as usual” at a hearing today with Dr. John M. Marburger III, Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy.
“The International Energy Agency (IEA) and our own Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both documented that world oil production has been virtually unchanged at a plateau during the last 30 months while demand has increased. That’s why oil is over $90 a barrel. The federal government has paid for four reports that have been ignored warning that global peak oil is imminent, for all practical purposes, and requires urgent action to prevent unprecedented negative consequences.
“This budget is business as usual in the area of energy research and development. In particular, most of the effort is focused on electricity. I’m pretty sanguine about sources of energy for electricity. But I’m really worried about liquid fuels for transportation. We really need an ARPA-E. The proposed budget doesn’t come close to meeting the seriousness of the situation and the really big threat and real challenge of energy in the world.”
(14 February 2008)
World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE – Update Feb 2008
ace, The Oil Drum
Executive Summary
1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.
3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
(15 February 2008)
