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To The Last Drop?
Paul Choiniere (Editor), The Day (Connecticut)
State forum offers a chilling look at the world’s finite oil supply
—
On the afternoon of Nov. 1, with global oil prices trading at more than $90 per barrel and threatening to hit $100, state legislators gathered in the Legislative Office Building to hear sobering, even frightening news.
The world’s supply of oil is reaching a production peak, while demand continues to grow rapidly, the panel of experts told the dozen or so lawmakers in attendance. With production unable to meet demand in coming years, oil prices will rise dramatically and gasoline shortages will develop, panelists contended.
The scenario described was one of looming disaster, a calamity that the state of Connecticut and the rest of the United States are ill prepared for. And this is not a catastrophe that will come and go, but persist for years, even decades, as the country goes through the painful process of weaning itself off cheap oil and settling into a lifestyle that recognizes the new reality of oil scarcity.
(9 December 2007)
Victims of record world oil prices?
Joseph Williams, Jamaica Gleaner
…Given the critical role of energy to all aspects of economic life, the effects of high oil prices are being felt by oil-importing nations like Jamaica and most Caribbean countries, as seen in the recent jump in prices of most basic food items. This situation has sent CARICOM leaders scurrying for appropriate responses to alleviate the burden on their citizenry.
Worst is yet to come
There is a clear sense that the worst is yet to come. Customers of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) will soon see the impact of a record Fuel & IPP rate in their electricity bill.
The current energy situation demands nothing less than a revolutionary response similar to the energy revolution which took place in Cuba with the disappearance of support from USSR in early 1990s. Anything less will mean near inevitable disastrous consequences for fragile economies of oil-dependent countries like Jamaica and most other countries of CARICOM, which exhibit a characteristic heavy debt burden, weak balance of payment, and heavy dependence on hard foreign currency.
Revolutionary approach
It could be argued that this revolutionary approach was justified from as earlier as 2002-2003 when world oil price began its steep upward march in the wake of the Iraq crisis, strong demand from Asian countries and the prediction of ‘peak oil’. The extremely ambitious targets for reduced dependence on oil, which were announced by the Prime Minister recently, resonate with the need for radical action.
It is my considered view that the current round of hardships which is being unleashed in the wake of high oil prices could have been significantly mitigated if appropriate and adequate responses were made over the past years by government and individual citizens (including businesses). In a real sense, Jamaican consumers and businesses may be considered to be three-fold victims of the effects of high oil prices because of i) less than aggressive implementation of appropriate government policies; ii) non-implementation of recommended least cost expansion plan (LCEP) for electricity generating capacity; iii) general non-responsiveness of consumers themselves in taking the necessary actions in improving energy efficiency in residences and businesses. I will only briefly discuss each of these below.
Joseph Williams is an energy management consultant
(9 December 2007)
Cheap Oil is So Yesterday. Time to Start Writing Expensive Oil into Our Plans?
Sally Odland, The Day
Who’d have thought we’d already be nostalgic for $80 oil? Only five years ago, a barrel of crude oil was trading comfortably at $25-$30, where it had for 15 years. Today the same barrel fetches $90-something, and it’s anyone’s bet whether oil will break $100 before Christmas. That’s a 300% price increase in five years, 50% in the last year alone. Credible energy analysts predict $200 to $300 oil in the next few years. No wonder the Feds removed energy costs from the core inflation index!
Our fundamental assumptions about the continuing availability of cheap oil to fuel the American lifestyle are being tested. Last year the topic of peak oil – the idea that the world is approaching a maximum limit to oil production – was virtually taboo in polite company and business journals. This November, however, the Wall Street Journal ran a Page One piece: “Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production”. If that’s not the definition of peak oil, I’m not sure what is.
…It will take time, inspiration, ingenuity, investment and hard work to achieve a successful energy transition. Connecticut should be commended for forming the first state-level legislative caucus on peak oil and gas to face its energy challenges. It was indeed heartening to see their November 1 informational forum at the Legislative Office Building in Hartford so well attended.
The impacts of peak oil will be hardest felt at the local and state level. The solution lies in revitalizing local manufacturing, farming and business around the emerging reality of constrained fossil fuel supplies. Peak oil gives us the opportunity to strengthen and rebuild our local economies and to restore forgotten American values of ingenuity, resourcefulness and community.
Sally Odland, a former geologist and project manager, has worked in mineral exploration, oil & gas exploration, environmental remediation, and exhibit design. She currently administers a division of research geophysicists at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. Sally holds advanced degrees in Geology and Business Administration. Her MBA dissertation, “Strategic Choices for Managing the Transition from Peak Oil to a Reduced Petroleum Economy” is posted at www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/. She serves as a volunteer Board Member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA)
(9 December 2007)
ODAC News – Mon 10 Dec
Douglas Low, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
New Peak Oil Report
1/ A Failure of Leadership (ODAC [Global Witness], Fri 07 Dec)
IEA, Oil Demand / Supply
2/ IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply (The Oil Drum: Europe [Rembrandt Koppelaar], Thu 06 Dec)
LNG Supplies – Trinidad and Tobago
3/ Energy company preaches restraint on natural gas projects – Audit puts 12-year life on reserves (Jamaica Gleaner, Fri 07 Dec)
Natural Gas / Electricity Prices – UK
4a/ ‘Ominous warning sign’ as British Gas raises tariffs (The Times, Wed 05 Dec)
4b/ Higher energy prices feared in new year (The Times, Fri 07 Dec)
Economy – UK
5a/ Warning of slump as Bank cuts rates to 5.5pc (The Telegraph, Fri 07 Dec)
5b/ Apocalypse now? (BBC News [Evamonics], Thu 06 Dec)
Economy – Other
6a/ Wall Street’s sub-prime loss could soar as bond insurers face shortfall (The Times, Thu 06 Dec)
6b/ UBS grabs new investors after $10bn credit hit (The Telegraph, Mon 10 Dec)
6c/ Decoupling dies as half the globe hits crunch (The Telegraph, Mon 10 Dec)
6d/ Mortgage Meltdown (Sanders Research Associates Ltd / SF Gate, Mon 10 Dec)
Copper Theft – UK
7/ Rail police: cable crime is biggest threat after terror (The Times, Tue 04 Dec)
Rising Oil Consumption – Oil producing Countries
8/ Oil-rich nations tapping more of their own resources (International Herald Tribune [NY Times], Sun 09 Dec)
Economy – South America and Iran
9/ Seven South American countries forming their own development bank / Iranian currency issues (Le Monde, Mon 10 Dec)
Transport post-Peak Oil
10/ Transport and post-Peak Oil (ODAC, Mon 03 Dec)
(10 December 2007)
