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Skrewbowski interview: 1200 days to peak oil (Podcast)
David Strahan, The Last Oil Shock
There are only 1200 days to go until global oil production reaches its all-time peak, according to the editor of the Petroleum Review. Worse, says Chris Skrebowski, the chances are the crisis will break even sooner.
Skrebowski made the claim at the ASPO conference in Houston last week on the basis of the latest results from his Megaprojects model, which he explains in an interview with Lastoilshock.com. Unlike other peak oil forecasters Skrebowski does not extrapolate future production from estimated reserves or resources, but balances the additional supplies expected from fields that are currently being developed against the decline in existing production capacity, which the International Energy Agency estimates at about 4% per year. By this measure, peak output will arrive in 2011, and from then on supply will fall increasingly short of predicted demand.
This approach is possible because on average it takes the oil industry over 6 years to turn a newly-discovered field into one that actually produces oil, so the maximum additional oil production capacity that is likely to come on stream is fairly well known for about 6 years in advance. However, in an industry plagued by shortages of skilled staff and rampant cost inflation, projects are often delayed, and fields sometimes produce less than expected.
Skrebowski’s forecast chimes with the IEA’s Medium Term Oil Market Report issued in July, but their conclusions are very different. The IEA describes its predicted shortfall in 2012 as a “supply crunch”, while Skrebowski talks of a “historical discontinuity”, or peak oil.
Listen to the interview with Chris Skrebowski.
(24 October 2007)
Global Public Media also did an interview with Mr. Skrebowski several days ago, in which he discussed the new Energe Watch Group report on peak oil. -BA
Case Western study: oil experts agree on 2010 peak oil
School of Engineering at Case Western Reserve University
Case Western Reserve University has just published its May-Aug survey results, that attracted over 300 oil experts from around the world. Its conclusion: global agreement on peak oil occurring by 2010.
The full report, available on the survey site (www.PeakOilwhen.org), shows an alarming change from the 2005 survey. While geologists in both surveys warned about an imminent Peak Oil, in the older survey, economists and politicians disagreed. In the recent report the agreement on the results is across the board.
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The Case Western Peak Oil Initiative (www.PeakOilWhen.org) has concluded its May-Aug 2007 survey, and is hereby reporting the results. The Internet posted survey attracted some 300 respondents that answered the survey questions. After weeding obviously non-serious cases, or cases where the respondent could not be positively identified by name and contact information, the operation was reduced to 155 individuals with proclaimed credentials relevant to the question in point. The responses were integrated using the BiPSA methodology. The integrated opinion of the community of responsive oil experts with respect to the statement:
“World-Wide Oil Production Will Peak by 2010 or earlier”
is that its veracity is: Highly Likely
This was also the uniform result from all sub-integrations. The raw opinions are summarized below. Percentage figures reflect proportion of respondents so voting.
(October 2007)
Chevron CTO Says Peak Oil Won’t Be a Disaster
Jennifer Kho, Greentech Media
At a Dow Jones conference in Redwood City, Calif., Don Paul discussed whether alternatives such as biofuels can fill in the gap as oil demand grows but production stalls.
So-called “peak oil” is coming, but it doesn’t have to be a disaster, Chevron Chief Technology Officer Don Paul said Wednesday.
The concept of peak oil is that the oil industry is reaching its maximum production level while the demand for oil keeps growing.
At the Dow Jones VentureWire Alternative Energy Innovations conference in Redwood City, Calif., Paul said many people think the industry will hit this maximum level by 2020.
“The question is will there be peak oil? Yes,” said Paul, who also is a Chevron vice president. “But will it be the disaster [some people] expect? I don’t think it has to be. We have other ways of making fuel.”
The remaining fuel could come from biofuels, oil from tar sands and coal, he said, adding that each of these potential sources has its challenges.
(24 October 2007)
Related: Peak oil projections from Chevron’s CTO (CNET)
Posters of peak oil future now online from Dynamic Cities
Bryn Davidson, Dynamic Cities Project:
Bryn Davidson writes:
I just got back from the Houston ASPO conference, and have gotten a handful of requests for copies of the posters that were part of the Dynamic Cities Project exhibition table.
To follow up, I’ve posted PDFs of the 2 posters (24″x36″, hi-res) on the DCP website. I’ve also posted a handout-size version of the ‘Our Future(s) Scenarios’. (files are ~1.5mb)
(24 October 2007)
Report: ‘World at peak oil output’
CNN
The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 — a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.
The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world’s oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year. It says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.
“It’s a very serious result,” said Hans-Josef Fell, a German lawmaker from the environmentalist Green Party who commissioned the report. “I fear the world will come into a big economic crisis in the coming years.”
The report warns that coal, uranium, and other key fossil fuels are also in declining supply. It predicts the fall in fossil fuel production will bring with it the threat of war, humanitarian disaster, and general social unrest.
But Leo Drollas, who leads oil and gas market analysis and forecasting at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said there are plenty of supplies and no looming crisis. He said the report sounds like “scaremongering.”
Drollas says production could still slow one day, but only because new reserves will be considered too difficult or expensive to extract.
“Oil could be left in the ground and we could move on to another fuel in the future, not because we’re running out of oil but because, economically speaking, it is not worth extracting the oil,” Drollas said.
(24 October 2007)
Peak oil or peak emissions?
Jerald L. Schnoor (editor), Environmental Science & Technology (American Chemical Society)
Lowering demand for oil will prolong the supply and cut greenhouse gases at the same time.
Are we running out of oil? Not any day soon, but a big controversy exists about the manner in which supplies will tighten and prices will rise in the future. Certainly, we are running out of cheap oil and a place to store the emissions from its profligate use.
“Peak oil” is the notion that world oil production will soon reach a pinnacle and will begin to decline within the next decade or so, inflicting serious damage to our global economy, possibly creating a depression and undermining geopolitical stability. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil hosted the 2007 Houston World Oil Conference on October 17-20 to discuss the timing of various peak-oil scenarios, the expected dramatic rise in oil and gas prices, and where smart money should be invested to mitigate the effects of (and to profit from) the peak-oil phenomenon.
…Peak oil is inevitable-production at the world’s largest oil fields is declining at ~4% per year. But if we concentrate our efforts on lowering demand for oil, we will prolong the supply and cut greenhouse gases at the same time. Robert Solow, Nobel Prize-winning resource economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, once said that virtually every economic good is substitutable, except for natural treasures like Yellowstone Park. Oil is also a resource treasure, but it is certainly substitutable. If we can find clean alternatives to oil, prices will stabilize, and the economy could come to a soft landing. High oil prices will aid in the development of substitution technologies. Of course, the number one strategy should be conservation and energy efficiency, which could easily halve oil consumption in the U.S.
Weaning ourselves from fossil fuels is the greatest challenge of the 21st century. But in this case, less really is more. Walking, biking, and public transit can not only conserve oil but also reinvigorate Americans who have become obese and diabetic.
Low-hanging fruit exists because of past inaction.
(24 October 2007)
This Week in Petroleum 10-24-07
Robert Rapier, The Oil Drum
Whoa! The analysts missed this one by a mile. Here were the predictions, prior to the release of the report:
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average predict crude inventories rose 300,000 barrels during the week ended Oct. 19, and Vienna’s PVM Oil Associates also noted that “expectations for this week’s U.S. oil inventory data are for a rise in crude oil stocks.”
However, some analysts predict a decrease of up to 2 million barrels. Analysts also predict the EIA report will show refinery utilization rose 0.3 percentage point; gasoline supplies, still near record lows, rose 1.1 million barrels; and distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel, rose 200,000 barrels.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 316.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week, and are at the lower end of the average range.
(24 October 2007)
