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World Energy Council predicts oil peak in 10-20 years
David Strahan, Lastoilshock.com
In a sign of just how rapidly peak oil is moving into the mainstream, a report from the World Energy Council has forecast that conventional oil production will peak in the next ten to twenty years. But in an interview with Lastoilshock.com, WEC Secretary General Gerald Doucet insisted that the transition would be “managable” and that total world energy supply would nevertheless double by 2030.
The WEC forecast relies upon an assessment of ‘Estimated Ultimate Recovery’ – the total amount of oil that will ever be produced – from Germany’s Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). This assessment is arguably too generous since the BGR takes OPEC’s highly questionable official reserve numbers at face value. But even on this basis WEC’s 2007 Survey of Energy Resources concludes that “the depletion midpoint – when half the EUR will have been recovered – will be reached within the next 10 to 20 years. Once that point is reached, the decline of conventional oil production is described as inevitable.” The BGR itself forecasts 2017.
Mr Doucet argues that massive efficiency gains, biofuels and coal will allow the world to cope with peak oil, but foresees much greater volatility.
Listen the interview with Gerald Doucet.
(19 September 2007)
Mr. Doucet seemed reluctant to emphasize the peak oil aspect of the report, trying very hard to put an optimistic spin on the energy future.
Transcript of James Schlesinger interview
David Strahan, ControInfo
The article begins with an introduction in French, but then switches to English for the interview that David Strahan conducted (Audio) on Monday Sept 17.
L’ancien ministre de l’énergie des Etats-Unis, le Dr James Schlesinger, affirme aujourd’hui que la bataille intellectuelle autour du « Peak Oil » a été gagnée et que dans les faits, « nous sommes tous des partisans de cette théorie aujourd’hui. »
…David Strahan : Dr Schlesinger, thank you for talking to me. You said today in your speech that conceptually the battle is over, the peakists have won. That’s an astounding bold claim. I was astonished. What do you mean by that ?
James Schlesinger : If you speak to people in the industry, they will conceed that whatever my company may say publicly, we understand that we are facing decline in our own production and worldwide, we are not going to be able to produce more fuel liquids or crude oil in the near future and if you look at pronouncements by governments including the Energy Information Administration in the United States, the National Petroleum Council, what they show is that by the early 2020, we are going to have peaked out in terms of conventional oil production and that is an immense change from what we have seen before in the attitude of the industry. …
(19 September 2007)
The ASPO Conference – Second Morning
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
The morning began with a Keynote address by Lord Oxburgh former non-executive chairman of Shell, who spoke on “Out of Oil, into Hot Water.” He began by noting the economic difficulties that are coming as demand continues to exceed supply. We are not, after all, making oil any more. (Ed comment – well let’s not forget biofuels – and it turned out he did not). Because these problems will arise around the time of peaking they will likely be precursors to it, and these economic consequences will come sooner than expected.
The problems, however, are not that we are running out of oil, rather it is that we are running out of cheap oil. When oil fields are abandoned there may be 60% of the original oil (OOIP) that is left in the rock. At present this is just too expensive to extract, but it leaves us with a problem since most transportation requires a liquid fuel. To work effectively the vehicle must have a small, relatively light engine, together with a storage reservoir full of fuel, that must in turn, be as light, yet energy dense, as possible. The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) has filled that need for the past century or so. The fuels that power it are among the most energy dense of those commonly available. That alone, however, is not the problem.
(19 September 2007)
The ASPO Conference – First Afternoon
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
The afternoon session of the first day of the Conference was chaired by the Economics Editor of RTE, George Lee who pointed out the general public lack of awareness of the current situation. He noted that when he did a program on the subject he was assailed by the Irish media, with negative cartoons, and the clear impression that he was on a subject that the public did not understand, or care to know about.
The first presentation was by Dr Herman Franssen of the IEA, talking about Global Energy Demand trends. Sad to admit, I did not get to hear this so I will pass on to the second paper, which was by Professor Pang the founder of ASPO-China. He noted that China had peaked in oil production in 2005. As production continues it has a ratio of 12:1 between reserves and production of crude, (relative to a figure he quoted of 40:1 for the world ratio); and 42:1 for natural gas (against a world ratio of 60:1). In consequence China spent $63 billion on importing fuel in 2006. In order to meet demand China is sending delegations around the world and now has 65 projects in 25 countries. It has just become a coal-importing country (and in response to a question from Dr. Schlesinger he confirmed that China has cancelled its CTL plans, because of the amount of coal that would be needed for their operation).
China has initiated a program to increase self-produced oil, to reduce oil consumption and to develop renewable alternatives.
The third speaker was Jeff Rubin of CIBC in Canada, who has been following this for some time. He sees a changing set of demand dynamics as the world thirst for oil invalidates some pre-conceptions. For example one might have thought that the increase in price would shackle demand, but it did not.
(18 September 2007)
Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 1: A Flashback
Gail Tverberg, The Oil Drum
This is the first part of a three-part series providing my ideas on the economic impact of peak oil.
What happens when peak oil collides with our economic system? It seems to me that there is a high probability of a major discontinuity of some type. What exactly happens after the discontinuity is likely to vary from country to country. It seems to me that the United States is especially vulnerable to a drastic drop in the amount of oil available for import because of the large amount of oil we import and the relatively small amount of goods we export.
Many people when analyzing the world oil situation focus on the relatively small drop in overall world supply in the first few years. From this, they conclude that peak oil will primarily raise the price of oil and some related goods, but not have a huge effect otherwise. If the decrease in oil products is severe, some rationing may be required. I think this analysis misses the big part of the problem – the impact of peak oil on the overall economic system, particularly in the United States.
The world is very different now than it was before the industrial revolution, which began about 1800 when fossil fuels were first used extensively. It seems to me that there is a significant chance that over the long term there will be just as big a change as we leave the age of fossil fuels. To start the discussion, let’s start with where we are, and then take a look back.
(19 September 2007)
Gail’s “nom de Web” is Gail the Actuary.
New Queensland Sustainability Minister on the future with less oil (Audio)
Andi Hazelwood, Global Public Media
Queensland’s newly appointed Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation talks with GPM’s Andi Hazelwood about his robust new portfolio (with double the previous environmental budget), the impending public release of his government-commissioned report on “Queensland’s Vulnerability to Oil Prices,” and the importance of relocalisation in the face of oil depletion.
“There’s no question whatsoever that community driven local solutions will be essential. That’s where government will certainly have a role to play in assisting and encouraging local networks, who can assist with local supplies of food and fuel and water and jobs and the things we need from shops. It was one of my contentions in the first speech I made on this issue in February of 2005… that we will see a relocalisation of the way in which we live that will remind us of not last century, but the one before that. And that’s not a bad thing. Undoubtedly one of the cheaper responses that will be very effective is promoting local consumption, local production, local distribution. And there are positive spinoffs to that in terms of getting to know our communities better. There are human and community benefits from local networks that I look forward to seeing grow.”
– The Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation
(19 September 2007)
According to Mr. McNamara, the Queensland peak oil report is being prepared for release via the Web, and will appear “very soon.”
