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A tipping point in Saudi Arabia
Dana Moss and Zvika Krieger, Christian Science Monitor
When Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud was crown prince of Saudi Arabia, one of his most infamous decisions was banning the use of camera phones in 2004 – a demand from the country’s Wahhabi clergy who claimed the devices were “spreading obscenity.”
But the decision was quickly reversed when King Abdullah faced pressure from his government ministers and, allegedly, from a cadre of foreign businessmen who threatened to pull their companies from Saudi Arabia. “Abdullah was presented with a choice between the Wahhabis and good business,” says one Riyadh-based businessman. “His decision [for the latter] was clear.”
It is a decision that Abdullah has made time and again over the course of his reign as king, which hit its two-year mark this month. By sidelining the traditional clergy in favor of the merchant classes and more progressive religious voices, Abdullah has been challenging the “great bargain” of the Saudi state – namely the empowerment of the Wahhabi ulema (hard-line Islamic scholars) in exchange for their sanction of the House of Saud.
This unlikely reformer, who has unofficially led the kingdom since King Fahd’s stroke in 1995, has propelled the country through a radical transformation. From accession to the World Trade Organization to the billion-dollar overhaul of the educational system to increased criticism of the religious “police” who enforce a strict interpretation of Islamic sharia law, the closed kingdom is beginning to crack open.
‘The oil boom is over’
These reforms come at a critical time. Saudi Arabia is barreling toward an economic and social crisis if it does not act fast. Almost 75 percent of Saudi citizens are under age 30 and youth unemployment is approaching 30 percent – a potential breeding ground for terrorists and regime dissidents. Current high oil prices are not enough to paper over the economic ravages of the past two decades. “The oil boom is over and will not return,” Abdullah told his subjects. “All of us must get used to a different lifestyle.”
Economic restructuring of the kingdom is no easy task, nor can it be separated from social reform, such as increasing women’s participation in economic life and creating a business environment and laws suitable for foreign companies.
Faced with resistance from the conservative official ulema, Abdullah has adopted a strategy of “circumvention” to coerce these reforms – officially toeing the Wahhabi line, but quietly giving more leeway to the private sector.
(15 August 2007)
In Iran, living in the moment
Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times
…Since June, Iran has rationed gasoline to about 26 gallons a month for most private cars, leaving many families doubtful about their summer vacation plans and raising fears of pandemonium when school resumes in September and burned-through ration allocations run dry.
The rationing program is designed to stem the nation’s crippling reliance on imported gasoline, in a country that has one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The dependence on foreign gasoline, a result of the country’s shortage in refinery capacity, is costing Iran more than $5 billion a year and rendering the nation vulnerable to the possibility of a new round of international sanctions that could cut off the fuel shipments.
The rationing has become the eventual focus of most conversations in Tehran, and the catalyst for a robust black market in fuel as holiday-makers seek ways to get to the shops and the seashores.
Although bookings have been down 25% to 30% here in the popular Caspian beach resorts since the rationing took effect, the crowd for the three-day holiday weekend this month was as big as ever. Hotels were turning away disappointed carloads of beachgoers well into the night. In restaurants offering plates of grilled sturgeon, Caspian trout heaped with coriander and saffron-sprinkled rice, diners were elbow-to-elbow.
Morteza Zarif Ali Hosseini, a printmaker, was camping in a dome tent along the beach with his wife, child and brother’s family (they had crammed into one car for the 3 1/2 -hour journey from Tehran). He said he saved up his gas allocations for the long-planned trip.
“Praise God, once a week we use the car now,” he said.
Iranian officials announced that average gasoline consumption had declined by more than 20% shortly after it began the rationing in late June. The rationing program is an effort to reduce the country’s vulnerability in the event the United Nations elects to target gasoline exports to Iran when it reviews the nation’s nuclear program.
“It’s not just a matter of U.N. sanctions. Just to give you an idea, since 10 years ago, we have tripled the amount of gasoline we import. And if we don’t stop it, we have no idea what this will lead to,” said Mohammed Sadegh Jenan Sefat, an economics writer for the Tehran-based publication Kargozaran, which is allied with the party of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
What has many economists and officials worried, though, is that the “smart cards” issued in June with six months’ worth of gasoline allocations may already be running close to empty for many families.
(23 August 2007)
Why Iraqis oppose U.S.-backed oil law
Workers think foreign firms will take over
David Bacon, San Francisco Chronicle
Under Washington’s guidance, the Iraqi government wrote the oil law in secret deliberations. It needed secrecy to obscure the fact that it gives foreign corporations control over exploration and development in one of the world’s largest oil reserves, through agreements called “production-sharing” contracts.
Such deals are so disadvantageous that they have been rejected by most oil-producing countries, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and otherwise conservative regimes throughout the Middle East.
The leaders of the Iraqi opposition to the oil law are the industry’s workers. In early June, the Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions shut pipelines from the Rumeila fields near Basra, in the south, to Baghdad and the rest of the country. Their main demand was that oil remain in public hands, although they also sought to force the government to improve conditions for workers.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki responded by calling out units of the 10th Division of the Iraqi army and surrounding the strikers at Sheiba, near Basra. U.S. aircraft buzzed the strikers as well, while al-Maliki issued arrest warrants for the union’s leaders. Facing the possibility, however, that the strike would escalate into shutdowns on the rigs themselves, cutting off oil exports, al-Maliki blinked. He agreed to hold off implementation of the oil law until October, giving the union a chance to propose alternatives. ..
(19 Aug 2007)
Iraq oil minister says gunmen kidnap his deputy
Reuters
Iraq’s oil minister said on Thursday that his deputy was kidnapped along with four senior officials in a “sophisticated” operation on Tuesday.
“Two days ago a large armed group with an estimated 100 gunmen … forcibly broke into the oil marketing company and kidnapped deputy minister Abdul Jabbar al-Wagga and four other ministry employees,” Hussain al-Shahristani told reporters. ..
Wagga, a Shi’ite, was snatched with four senior employees when the gunmen, wearing Iraqi security forces uniforms, stormed into the state oil marketing organisation’s building on Tuesday.
Shahristani said the men were carrying “sophisticated” weapons. They drove government vehicles and spoke in English as they convinced guards to let them enter in what he described as a serious breach of security committed by “enemies of Iraq.” ..
(16 Aug 2007)
UAE to cut oil production for rig maintenance
David Bacon, REUTERS via The Peninsula, Qatar
DUBAI • The United Arab Emirates will shut around a quarter of its oil output for two to three weeks of planned maintenance at two of its largest fields from the end of October, a Gulf industry source said yesterday.
The shutdown will cut output from the world’s sixth-largest oil exporter by around 630,000 barrels per day (bpd), he said. Oil traders in Asia said the total output reduction would be as high as 810,000 bpd as a third field would also undergo work.
The Opec member’s output in July was around 2.54 million bpd, according to a survey.
The maintenance will hit production as demand from consumer countries for oil rises ahead of winter. The UAE’s crude is a favoured feedstock for Japanese refiners making heating fuels.
Output from the Upper Zakum field will be reduced to around 180,000 bpd from around 530,000 bpd for about two and half weeks, the source said. ..
(18 Aug 2007)
Cause of maintainence requirement? -LJ
