Climate change a bigger security threat than terrorism, says report

The government’s obsession with the “war on terror” is counterproductive and distracting politicians from more fundamental threats to global security, a leading UK thinktank warns today.

The most likely causes of future conflict are climate change, competition for natural resources, social and economic marginalisation and militarisation, it says.

The independent Oxford Research Group says in its report Global Responses to Global Threats that the effects of climate change – displacement of peoples, food shortages, social unrest – have long-term security implications far greater than those of terrorism, and notes that the Pentagon’s office of net assessment takes the same view.

However, it adds that the response to climate change should not involve greater reliance on nuclear power because this would encourage the spread of nuclear weapons and increase the risk of terrorists getting hold of them.

Deepening global socio-economic divisions will be a serious trend, it says: “The marginalised majority is increasingly likely to support political violence against the rich minorities of the world.”

Separately, Hans Blix, the former UN weapons inspector, will today in the Commons present MPs with his new commission’s report on how to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction. Among his recommendations is a commitment by states to remove all their nuclear weapons from foreign soil. The US has more than 100 nuclear weapons at its Lakenheath base in Suffolk, an arms control group says. A Greenpeace poll found 60% of Britons did not know or did not believe it.

EB editor: The website of the Oxford Research Group has more information on the report:

Download full report as a printable pdf, purchase from our online shop, or complete this order form.

This major new report is the result of an 18-month long research project examining the various threats to global security, and sustainable responses to those threats.

Current security policies assume international terrorism to be the greatest threat to global security, and attempt to maintain the status quo and control insecurity through the projection of military force. The authors argue that the failure of this approach has been clearly demonstrated during the last five years of the ‘war on terror’ and it is distracting governments from the real threats that humanity faces.

Unless urgent action is taken within the next five to ten years, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid a highly unstable global system by the middle years of the century.

This report outlines a more sustainable approach.

“Current US and UK foreign policy is totally counterproductive and is encouraging terrorism and proliferation of WMD. This report offers a serious alternative which would make the world safer and British people proud of our role in the world. I hope it is widely read.” Rt. Hon. Clare Short MP, UK Secretary of State for International Development (1997-2003)

Contents:

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction: A Clear and Present Danger?
3. Climate Change
• The Social Impacts of Climate Change
• Nuclear is not the Answer
• Renewable Energy
4. Competition Over Resources
   
   • The Resource Shift
   • Oil and US Security
   • Water Politics
5. Marginalisation of the Majority World
• The Security Implications of HIV/AIDS
• Socio-economic Divisions
• The ‘War on Terror’
6. Global Militarisation
• Forces in Transition
• The 9/11 Attacks and After
• Weapons of Mass Destruction
7. Discussion: The Way Forward
8. Glossary