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Katrina and the Coming World Oil Crunch
Michael T. Klare, The Nation (US)
More than any other domestic disaster, Hurricane Katrina has significant implications for America’s foreign and military policies. …
But far more important than any of these is the impact of Katrina on the global oil supply and the resulting increase in US dependence on foreign petroleum. To appreciate the significance of all this, it is first necessary to conduct a quick review of the pre- and post-Katrina oil situation, both in this country and abroad. …
And then came Katrina. In the course of a few hours, the United States lost one-fifth of its domestic petroleum output. Some of this is expected to come back on stream in the weeks ahead, but it is doubtful that all of the offshore rigs in the Gulf itself will ever be operational again. On top of this, most of the refineries in the Gulf Coast area are shut down, and imports of oil have been hampered by the damage to oil ports and unloading facilities.
How quickly all of these installations can be repaired is not currently known. With no idle facilities elsewhere in the nation to replace lost Gulf capacity, supplies are likely to remain sparse (and prices high) for months to come.
But it is not the short-term picture that we should worry about the most; it is the long-term situation. This is so because the Gulf was the only area of the United States that showed any promise of compensating for the decline of older onshore fields and thus of dampening, to some degree, the nation’s thirst for imported oil.
There has been much discussion about the potential for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska, but energy professionals scoff at the prospects of obtaining significant amounts of crude there; instead, all of their attention has been on the deep waters of the Gulf.
Spurred by the Bush Administration’s energy plan, which calls for massive investment in deep-water fields, the big oil firms have poured billions of dollars into new offshore drilling facilities in the Gulf. Before Katrina, these facilities were expected to supply more than 12 percent of America’s Lower 48 petroleum output by the end of 2005, and a much larger share in the years thereafter. …
(6 September 2005)
Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 (1-MB PDF)
Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar , Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands
Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands have made an analysis based on new oil projects, declining oil production, future discoveries, possible increases from the existing decling base and technological increases. Their conclusion is that oil production will peak between 2010 and 2015.
(6 September 2005)
Announced at peakoil.com.
School Daze
On why we shouldn’t waste energy
Umbra Fisk, Grist
Dear Umbra,
I am doing a big geography project at school on saving energy and recycling. My part is to comment on what will happen if we keep wasting energy. I know the basic information, but I am not sure what to write, as it is to be given out to adults (and I’m only 12!). Please send me some useful information because I am really stuck!
Laura / Heartfordshire, U.K.
Dearest Laura,
There are a few things that happen as we keep wasting energy. One, we will run out. Two, energy makes a mess, so the more we use the messier the world gets. And three, we just plain waste a useful resource…
(7 September 2005)
A Peek Beyond the Peak: Heinberg in Venice [Calif.]
Margaret Morris, Hopedance
On July 16, the United Methodist Church of Venice hosted a gathering under the sponsorship of the Post Carbon Institute dealing literally with the end of civilization as we know it. Richard Heinberg, one of the world’s most respected experts on peak oil, spoke to a group of 50 to 60 people about the impending depletion of the world’s petroleum reserves and how best to meet the challenges this presents. …
Professor Heinberg rapidly outlined the problem, with which most of HopeDance’s readers are all too familiar: the demand for petroleum, indeed modern society’s overwhelming dependence on this substance, is about to meet an ever-increasing reduction in supply, as producers dip into the less-desirable second half of the planet’s resources.
At times, the issue of denial captured the group’s attention: how to present the magnitude of the problem and the severity of the consequences in a way that people currently unaffected could absorb it. Heinberg admitted that when he took time from his work to go outside and do ordinary household tasks, he himself fell into the illusion of normality and some of his sense of urgency dissipated
(September/October 2005 issue)
Peak Oil: The High Water Mark of the Culture of Consumption
David Chege and Linus Bell
Humanity is on a collision course with the resource limitations of the planet we live on. Where we are headed and why is the most necessary truth to be told.
The global oil market is making headlines with an increasing frequency these days, as rising gas costs dig into people’s pockets and the price of a barrel of oil continues its upward trajectory. While the administration talks of decreased reliance on foreign oil, the reality is that America has not been energy independent since the 70s oil crisis when it’s domestic oil industry hit a maximum level of production.
When Saudi Arabia announces that its supergiant Ghawar oil field is declining in output every year [1], it is stating that it is beginning to undergo the same crisis of production that shocked the US economy three decades ago. Saudi oil is the keystone of world production, and Ghawar supplies nearly half of Saudi output. Everyone knows that the Middle East has lots of oil, but if we can’t pump it out of the ground as fast as we use it, we are in for a tumultuous decade.
(12 August 2005)
Freak oil theory
Peter Foster, National Post via Canada.com
Yesterday I pulled into a service station and bought $20 worth of gasoline. Since I’m keen to avoid my first $100 fill-up, and since I expect prices to come down (not least as a reflection of my own actions), I bought just enough to get me around for a couple of days. And I’m not planning any frivolous road trips in the near future.
The collective result of such actions is to reduce demand, boost inventories and put downward pressure on prices until post-Katrina Gulf Coast refining facilities can be brought back onstream and gasoline can be shipped into North America from offshore. That’s how markets work.
In the wake of Katrina, however, the deranged chorus that suggests markets don’t work, and that we may be on the brink of a new energy Dark Age, is being given way too respectful a hearing. …
(7 September 2005)
Standard rhetorical misrepresentation of the depletionist case by a mainstream opinionist.
Interesting that Sprott AM come in for a serve, as they’re fairly recent public advocates of oil depletion concerns – maybe something to do with the release yesterday of their report on Government Intervention in the Stock Market? -LJ
