“Oil production is now in decline in eighteen countries around the world”, said Chris Skrebowski, Editor of Petroleum Review, at yesterday’s Energy Institute oil depletion debate.
Joined by Roger Bentley, Senior Research Fellow at University of Reading, Francis Harper, Exploration Consultant at BP, Professor Peter Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies at Erasmus University, Dr Michael Smith, Technical Director at Energyfiles, Dr Robert Arnott, Senior Research Fellow at Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, and Dr Ken Chew, Vice President of IHS Energy, this debate considered whether the subject of oil depletion was no problem, concern or crisis.
Over half of the audience felt that oil depletion was a concern, and a further quarter believed that this issue was a crisis for both the UK and the rest of the world. Only four members of the audience took the view that future supplies were no problem. With oil fuelling 95% of all transport, prices currently at their highest level since 1978 and little spare capacity, prices are likely to remain high until oil demand slows or new supplies come on-stream.
One speaker commented that existing reserves are unlikely to sustain demand for more than about 15 years. While Dr Michael Smith demonstrated that a full analysis of oilfield production data clearly shows that a combination of all global oil supplies would be permanently unable to meet forecast demand after the 2010 to 2015 period. Some of the speakers expected non-conventional oil supplies, tar sands and heavy oils would become increasingly important but there are significant financial and environmental costs to consider. In stark contrast to the general view that future supplies represent a challenge, Professor Odell suggested that oil production will continue to rise until after the mid 21st century with oil’s contribution to the global supply of hydrocarbons then being overtaken by natural gas.
Francis Harper and Ken Chew both provided presentations with a wealth of detail about reserves and future prospects. Both were confident that the industry could deliver further supplies while conceding the challenge of meeting future supplies and the idea that conventional oil supplies would peak. However while the economic development of tar sands and heavy oils looks generally optimistic, there are still some doubts regarding oil shales.
This conference tackled most of the key influences affecting future oil supplies – geological, financial, economic and political. While virtually everyone was prepared to recognize the size of the challenge and the possibility that the era of cheap oil was ending, the idea that physical supply may be restricted within a decade and how this would impact the rest of the world was still being contested.
Following the success of this and a previous conference organised by the Energy Institute, it is clear that future oil supplies and their likely price remains an active and important debate, one which the EI will continue to lead.
ENDS
For further information please contact Katie Crabb at the Energy Institute on +44 (0) 20 7467 7173, email [email protected] or visit www.energyinst.org.uk
For additional comment on the issue of oil depletion, please contact Chris Skrebowski at Petroleum Review on +44 (0) 20 7467 7117 or email [email protected]
Notes to editors:
The Energy Institute has a membership of almost 12,000 individuals and 400 organisations and provides an independent focal point for the energy community, bringing together industry, academia and government. The Energy Institute’s purpose is to promote the safe, environmentally responsible and efficient supply and use of energy in all its forms and applications. In fulfilling its purpose the EI can address a wide range of topics in detail, covering upstream and downstream hydrocarbons and other primary fuels and renewables, through power generation, transmission and distribution to sustainable development, demand side management and energy efficiency. For further information, please visit www.energyinst.org.uk
