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Peak Oil: Net Exports Aren’t Everything
Tom Konrad, Forbes
I think everyone’s wallet should have convinced them by now that the days of cheap oil are over.
Compared to the end of cheap oil, “peak oil,” or the moment when worldwide production hits its peak, is irrelevant, at least from an economic standpoint. What we really care about is how much we’re paying for the oil that keeps our economy running.
As I demonstrated in my most popular article to date on Forbes, The End of Elastic Oil, the global market for oil has had a regime change in the last 10 years.
… In short, the peak oil crowd is right, but, like anyone who gets used to being criticized for accurately stating the facts, they can take the argument too far. The concept of “Net Exports” is a case in point. My friend Jim Hansen explains Net Exports this way:
Net exports are all that matter…!
For oil importing countries like the United States, China, India and all of Europe except for Norway the available supply of importable oil on the global market is all that matters. It doesn’t matter to these countries how much global production has risen if that production does not translate into an increase in the global net export supply. An increase in gross Saudi Arabian production is meaningless if it is destined solely for domestic consumption (see this week’s report for more).
I’m sorry Jim, that really does not follow.
An increase in gross Saudi Arabian production isn’t “destined” for anywhere, and it is meaningful.
(28 April 2012)
Submitted by Jeffrey J. Brown who writes: “An interesting discussion can be found in the comments section.”
Charles Hales’ Bookshelf Gloomier Than He Lets On
Corey Pein, Willamette Week
One thing colleagues of Portland mayoral candidate and former City Commissioner Charlie Hales find noteworthy about him, as WW reported in its recent profile, is that his core political beliefs are hard to pin down.
… perhaps the closest thing to a philosophical touchstone WW could find with Hales is his fondness for a foul-mouthed car-hater who despises both major political parties and believes America is in an irreversible decline.
Hales, it turns out, is a longstanding admirer of the writer James Howard Kunstler, who attacked suburbia in his 1993 book The Geography of Nowhere, and now spins dark doomer prophecies of a post-peak oil world on his blog, Clusterfuck Nation.
The feeling is mutual. “When I met Charlie, I was tremendously impressed that in this whole country full of city officials, he was one of a handful—a number you could count on one hand—who had both good intentions and brains and the will to act on them politically,” Kunstler, pictured right, told WW in an interview last month. “Anybody who gets into politics now is sort of looking for trouble…. But not everybody who steps up to the plate is going to be a scoundrel.”
(3 May 2012)
“Dale” has a comment at the original article which sums up my feelings. -BA
Oooooh…scary stuff indeed!
Up to now, I’ve known very little about Hales, other than that many of the people I respect and are friends with have his campaign sign in their yards. However, this convinces me to vote for him. Kunstler, the “foul-mouthed car-hater”, [have I missed the story that FOX News has taken over WW?] if you’re familiar enough with, is NOT a doomer. He only very colorfully asserts that unless society simply begins to prepare and prioritize its resources for the inevitable scarcity of cheap oil, much the way Portland seems to be doing quite admirably, will be headed for a slow, steady decline.
Illustrating the new book “Peeking at Peak Oil”
Lina Nydahl, Södermanlands Nyheter (Sweden)
Swedish version
English version at Aleklett’s Energy Mix
Blacksta artist Olle Qvennerstedt is noted not only for his art but also as the illustrator of the new book Peeking at Peak Oil – written by his friend of many years and former resident of Trosa, the physics professor Kjell Aleklett.” So begins an article in the newspaper Södermanland News that draws attention to Olle’s work in illustrating the book.
Olle thinks that the book project has been demanding. Partly this is because much of the work required considerable skill. But he also thinks it was a somewhat painful process to take on board the research results that he has illustrated in over 110 drawings. For my part I am only pleased when he says, “I have never once felt reluctance to do the work. In fact, the opposite is true and it became somewhat of a quest. We have always had the clear goal of getting the world’s decision-makers to realize that it is time to reconsider – we cannot continue to use the world’s oil resources as we are doing.”
Olle says, “It feels enormously satisfying to have been able to participate in something that I really believe will cause changes and that hopefully means that the resources we have will be used with more understanding in the future. In any case we have done what we can to really illuminate what is happening”. He adds also that he feels a little empty now that the task is completed. – I must add that I also feel a little empty as we for two years have had more or less daily discussions about different illustrations, what to illustrate and what to leave for the readers just to read.
(2 May 2012)
Kjell Aleklett adds: “The news article notes also that Olle has produced three lithographs based on illustrations from the book and that can now be purchased. The price is SEK 1,000 [~US$150] for a single lithograph or SEK 1,800 [~US$270] for all three.
(Mail to Olle: [email protected])”
Wir müssen weniger konsumieren
Bianka Eichinger, Nachrichten.at
RIEDAU. Niko Paech, Ökonom und Wirtschaftswissenschafter, spricht in Riedau über seinen visionären, gleichzeitig konkreten Gesellschaftsentwurfs der „Postwachstumsökonomie“.
… Volkszeitung: Von Ihnen stammt der Begriff „Postwachstumsökonomie“. Können Sie einem Laien in drei Sätzen verständlich erklären, was dieser bedeutet?
Paech: Eine Postwachstumsökonomie resultiert aus dem Rück- und Umbau der globalisierten Industrie. Die Versorgung stützt sich zum einen darauf, im Rahmen eines 20-Stunden-Jobs weiterhin ein bescheidenes Einkommen zum Konsumieren zu verdienen, zum anderen darauf, durch eigene geldlose Leistungen Produktion zu sparen. Letzteres umfasst unter anderem die eigenständige Pflege, Instandhaltung und Reparatur von Gegenständen, eigene Lebensmittproduktion in Gemeinschaftsgärten und die gemeinschaftliche Nutzung von Gütern.
… Volkszeitung: Sie haben den Begriff „Prosument“ kreiert. Was dürfen wir darunter verstehen?
Paech: Das ist Mensch, der seine ökonomische Souveränität dadurch zurück erlangt hat, dass er selbst produziert, repariert, mit anderen Dinge tauscht oder gemeinsam nutzt, also sich vom Dasein eines Konsumdeppen befreit.
Volkszeitung: Der Titel Ihres Vortrages in Riedau lautet: „Leben ohne Wirtschaftswachstum – Wie geht das?“ Bei den Unternehmern werden Sie sich damit keine Freunde machen, oder?
Paech: Kürzere Distanzen zwischen Verbrauch und Produktion, also eine Rückkehr zu regionaler und weniger kapitalintensiver Fertigung, wäre ein wichtiger Schritt. Andere Nutzungsformen und Produkte, die lange halten und reparabel sind, können auch für Unternehmen interessant sein – natürlich nicht für alle. Unternehmen sind gut beraten, sich auf Peak Oil (Fördermaximum des Rohöls) einzustellen, sonst brechen manche Produktionssysteme wie Kartenhäuser zusammen. Weiters benötigen wir eine Verkürzung und Umverteilung der Arbeitszeit sowie Veränderungen unseres Geldsystems.
… Volkszeitung: Und was machen Sie persönlich, um fit für die Zukunft zu sein?
Paech: Keine Flugreisen, kein Auto, kein Fleisch, kein Handy, kein Fernseher und kein Einfamilienhaus. Dinge lange und intensiv nutzen, sie möglichst selbst reparieren und wo es sich anbietet mit anderen teilen.
(3 May 2012)
