End of economic growth – Dec 12

December 12, 2011

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The End of Growth in the United States

Gregor Macdonald, Gregor US
With one month to go in the data series, US Total Non-Farm Payrolls have averaged 131.08 million in 2011. The problem is that the US is a Very Large System, and needs growth to support its array of future obligations, primarily Social Security and the debt it incurs to run its military budget, and other entitlements. If you had told someone ten years ago that Total Non-Farm Payrolls would be at similar levels in 2011, that likely would have sounded impossible, or extreme. But the fact is, US Total Non-Farm Payrolls averaged 131.83 million ten years ago, in 2001. The implications for this lack of growth are quite dire. | see: United States Total Non-Farm Payrolls in Millions (seasonally adjusted) 2001-2011.

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With less economic growth, and no growth in global oil production leading to permanently higher oil prices, the United States is trying to operate its Empire at previous levels. Now you know why the country along with the rest of West has gone more deeply into debt…
(4 December 2011)


Do Less with Less, and Love It

Justin Ritchie, TheTyee
Unless you attended a debate, snatched up an inaugural copy of the Vancouver Degrowth newspaper, or caught sight of one the few Degrowth flyers around town, you might have missed Vancouver’s newest political party this past municipal election.

Running under the Degrowth banner, Chris Masson, Ian Gregson and Chris Shaw lost out in an election dominated by Vision Vancouver. With a budget of $1,300 to cover the cost of the newspaper and election registration fees, the three collectively received just over 20,000 votes — less than half of what the candidate with the lowest number of votes elected, Adriane Carr, received.

Yet the party doesn’t see their candidacy as failed. As Degrowth council candidate Chris Shaw puts it, “What we wanted to do was to start a discussion about how reliant our economic system is on economic growth — a reliance that will impact everyone harshly in the near future.”

The newly-minted Degrowth Party is the newest incarnation of the Work Less Party, which received over 12,000 votes in the 2008 municipal election. The party, notorious for its “Work Less Party parties” on Commercial Drive, moved to rebrand late this September.

“‘Work Less’ seemed frivolous to a lot of people, as if all we wanted to do was just bang on the drum all day,” says Degrowth council candidate Shaw. “It didn’t convey the image that we wanted to provide… more quality time for the people you love and freedom to engage in civic activities. The terms ‘Degrowth’ and ‘Work Less’ embrace truly green principles that contrast with what the term ‘green’ has become — empty and meaningless.”

Based on a movement with roots in Europe, the Degrowth Party is taking their message beyond the election with the hopes of debunking Vancouver’s image of being a sustainable, green city. They hope to convince citizens that a new economic vision is possible — however difficult that may be.

“We intended the term Degrowth to be challenging,” says Shaw, “because it gives us an opening that allows a discussion of the limits to growth.”…
(December 2011)


Could Obama Be the First Steady-State President?

Brian Czech, The Daly News
Could President Obama be the one who leads Americans to recognize the ever-growing conflict between GDP and the health of the nation? Could Obama be the first to hearken the steady state economy — stabilized levels of production and consumption — as the sustainable alternative? Could Obama be the “steady-state president” we’ve all (well not all, but many of us) been waiting for?

Alas, probably not. The time is not quite ripe enough. Yet it is not quite out of the question, either. Obama shows clear signs of steady statesmanship, and citizens show signs of needing it.

In “Obama’s New Square Deal,” Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne Jr. described how “President Obama has decided that he is more likely to win if the election is about big things rather than small ones. He hopes to turn the 2012 campaign from a plebiscite about the current state of the economy into a referendum about the broader progressive tradition that made us a middle-class nation. For the second time, he intends to stake his fate on a battle for the future.”

That’s exactly the type of leadership needed to advance the steady state economy as a policy goal with widespread public support. In particular, we need a focus on “big things,” such as the long-run sustainability of the American and global economies. We need a president who will “battle for the future,” not for another percentage point in next year’s GDP growth.

The progressive tradition Dionne sees Obama adhering to is also conducive to the steady state economy, which is roughly indicated by stabilized GDP and a stable standard of living. Dionne rightly points to Theodore Roosevelt and Franklin D. Roosevelt as primary purveyors of the progressive movement, and sees signs that Obama could channel the Roosevelts into a 21st century New Deal for the middle class. TR and FDR were concerned with the middle class, for sure, but they were concerned with much more as well. They were concerned with truly “big things” such as the long-run sustainability of the nation…
(12 December 2011)


Tags: Energy Policy, Fossil Fuels, Oil, Politics