Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Officials Wake Up to Peak Oil
Chris Nelder, Energy & Capital
Part 1: The End of Peak Oil Denial
When I began writing about peak oil professionally in 2006, it was generally considered a tinfoil hat theory. The notion that oil production might peak around 2012 (plus or minus) was only taken seriously by a few analysts who were considered extremely pessimistic.
Official forecasts had no cognizance of it whatsoever. All were confident that oil supply would continue to grow steadily to 130 million barrels per day (mbpd) and beyond, at prices that would be considered astoundingly cheap by today’s standards. Oil companies rarely mentioned peak oil, and when they did, it was in a casually dismissive way.
But as time marched on, the cornucopian arguments fell one by one. My longtime readers have seen the story unfold, but for the benefit of new readers, here’s a quick summary…
OPEC scaled back some of its development plans as costs soared. Non-OPEC production not only failed to deliver any actual increase, but began to decline. Forecasts were revised lower.
Corn ethanol boomed and busted, as it was revealed to be the net energy non-starter that serious analysts always knew it was. It also was suspected of adding pressure to food prices at a most inopportune time.
Unconventional production from oil shale and tar sands failed to grow as expected, as producers shied away from high-cost, low-production projects.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) finally included the depletion of mature fields in its analysis, and became increasingly shrill in its warnings about future supply.
A few current and former oil industry executives began making public statements about the diminishing prospects for new supply, and a few even acknowledged that it would be hard to increase production much beyond current levels.
Then high oil prices proved intolerable to an economy stretched thin by the bursting of the bubbles in the real estate and financial sectors.
Yet official recognition of the peak oil threat remained muted, couched in warnings about “adequate investment” and blithe assertions that demand would soon peak, averting any supply shortage.
All that seems to have changed in the last month. A sudden deluge of reports and summit meetings suggest that the oil industry and energy officials are now taking peak oil very seriously indeed.
(2 April 2010)
TOD’s Dave Murphy on “This Week in Energy”
Gail Tverberg, The Oil Drum
Last week, Prof. Goose told you about This Week in Energy, a world-reaching, web-based weekly (and archived) energy-focused show, that we are working with.
This week the show featured David Murphy of our staff. Dave has an M.S. in Environmental Science and is currently a Ph.D. candidate in the same field at the State University of New York – College of Environmental Science and Forestry. Current research initiatives include Energy Return on Investment (EROI) analysis, studying the interface of energy and economics, and applying econometric time-series analyses to energy/economic issues.
In this week’s show, Dave talks to hosts Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield and Bob Tregilus about a number of topics including
• The offloading of research to universities, instead of companies having their own R&D departments
• China’s passing the US in wind and solar investment
• Obama’s announcement on offshore drilling
• The decline in popularity of cap and trade
The show is available either as a video or as a podcast. It is Episode 18, if you are downloading the podcast.
(3 April 2010)
What’s driving up oil prices again? Wall Street, of course
Kevin G. Hall, McClatchy Newspapers
Oil consumption has fallen, demand from U.S. motorists for gasoline is flat at best and refiners that turn crude into fuel are operating well below capacity. Yet oil prices keep marching toward $90 a barrel, pushing gasoline toward $3 a gallon in many markets, and prompting American drivers to ask, “What gives?”
Blame it on the same folks who brought you $140 oil and $4 gasoline in 2008: Wall Street speculators.
Experts attribute much of the recent rise in prices to flows of speculative money into oil markets. These bets are fueled by investor expectations that the U.S. and global economies are poised to return to growth and thus spark increased use of oil. Strong growth in China supports the narrative of rising oil consumption and tightening supplies.
(1 April 2010)
Also at Common Dreams.
It seems that in fact speciulation and the market are working correctly in this case. If informed opinion believes has rational reasons to anticipate higher oil prices, it is better for all concerned that oil prices beforehand, to start damping demand and the search for alternatives. -BA
Oil and Gas Ads Target ‘Energy Industry Taxes’
Anne C. Mulkern (Greenwire), New York Times
The oil and gas industry is funding an advertising campaign aimed at stopping new energy taxes, an effort that comes as it faces both a loss of tax benefits and possible new penalties as part of climate legislation.
Industry trade group American Petroleum Institute launched the ads now running in Washington, D.C., and 10 states.
“What would new taxes on oil and gas mean to to you?” one ad asks, followed by a woman who answers: “Well, I’m against it because it would really hurt our economy. It would take money away from businesses and stores. People would just be in more of a bind. I think it’s just, it’s not a good idea.”
Another ad urges: “Tell Washington to say no to energy industry taxes.”
The ads target President Obama’s fiscal 2011 budget proposal to eliminate tax breaks for petroleum companies, API said
(2 April 2010)
