A recently conducted survey of members of the global ‘Peak Oil Community’ has revealed wide-ranging negative expectations for the world in the twenty first century but also optimism on an individual basis. ‘The Global Peak Oil Survey 2009’, carried out by the UK focused peak oil group Powerswitch, consisted of 150 questions on the most controversial areas of discussion around peak oil.
The findings show a view of the world drastically affected by declining global supplies of oil, expected to occur from 2007 to 2013. The effects of peak oil suggested will be wide ranging, with increases in crime, war and nationalism, and decreases in urban working, health and global population levels. A strong concern about climate change exists but the view is that peak oil will have much more of an impact on society over the next twenty five years.
Key statistics from the survey:
• 65% see global peak oil occurring between 2007 and 2013
• 50% are optimistic about their personal future but only 21% are actually optimistic about their country’s future and just 17% are optimistic about the World’s future
• 81% are worried by climate change, but only 31% find climate change more worrying than peak oil
• 95% are not happy with their government’s preparations for a world of declining oil supplies
• 77% think extreme political parties and policies will become more prevalent
• 66% see crime increasing
• 69% see increase in xenophobia and nationalism
• 63% see a large shift of the working population from cities back to the fields
• 54% see nuclear war or war involving weapons of mass destruction as more likely
• 93% agree that resource wars will increase
• 81% expect a significant decrease in human population across the global by the end of the 21st century
• 44% have decided to change their career due to peak oil.
Survey author James Howard found the results interesting. “Despite having a very negative view of how things will turn out for the world as a whole, the peak oil community seem to be more optimistic on an individual basis, and that is due to a feeling of being aware of the problem, and thus able to deal with it. This understanding needs to go beyond this niche community and taken onboard by society, business and government at large. If that were to happen, I imagine the peak oil community would not be so negative about the future.”
As well as providing the initial findings at http://tinyurl.com/gpos2009-results-page, the raw data of the results have also been made available on the PowerSwitch website, www.powerswitch.org.uk. PowerSwitch will be conducting the Global Peak Oil Survey again in 2010. Anyone interested in partnering in the survey should contact [email protected]
