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Aleklett in Australia
Big Gav, The Oil Drum: Australia
ASPO International president, Professor Kjell Aleklett of the Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has been in Australia over the past week, presenting lectures in Adelaide and Sydney on peak oil.
ASPO Australia has copies of 2 presentations done in Adelaide – “Energy: The Challenge To Sustainability” (ppt) and “Peak oil, peak gas and peak coal: Setting the scene for future supply problems” (ppt).
The Sydney Morning Herald has a report on the visit – Highly vulnerable to oil shortages.
(11 June 2009)
Unconventional sources promise rich natural gas harvest
Sheila McNulty, Financial Times
Global natural gas resources could be more than quadrupled, helping tackle climate change, if the world adopted US technology and expertise to tap unconventional sources, according to a report by PFC Energy, a consultancy.
For Europe, which geological surveys show has vast unconventional shale gas, coal bed methane and hard to access gas, this could ultimately lead to reduced dependence on Russia.
Globally, it could ease the transition from high carbon coal to cleaner burning natural gas in electricity production. “This is a game changer,” said Robin West, PFC chairman.
(10 June 2009)
Is It Time to Buy Oil?
Anand Chokkavelu, The Motley Fool via MSNBC
Or is it still too early?
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… Those bullish on oil point to the inevitability of “peak oil,” arguing that the time will come when we hit the peak of global oil production. From that point on, we’ll be able to pump less and less oil out of the ground. In economic terms, we’ll face decreasing supply.
Meanwhile, bulls argue that demand will increase greatly, as China and other emerging markets fuel their economic growth with oil. On average, each person in the U.S. consumes about 25 barrels of oil a year; each person in China consumes just more than two. That’s a lot of possible future demand.
And all of us amateur economists know what happens when you restrict supply while simultaneously increasing demand: Prices rise.
But then again …
Um, weren’t these the same arguments made when oil was at $147 a barrel? Yup. At that price, all of these favorable supply-and-demand assumptions were baked in, and then some. The subsequent price fall highlights that we’ll only make great returns if we buy at low prices.
With oil prices at less than half of their summer highs, oil plays are certainly tempting now. Getting in at steep discounts to the prices Buffett paid is a wonderful thing. However, when we look back in time, we see that current oil prices are about seven times the lows of the late 1990s.
In other words, looking at price movements by themselves just isn’t that helpful. We need to estimate oil’s intrinsic value.
(12 June 2009)
There’s been an uptick in media articles that mention “peak oil.” -BA
Rally in oil prices may be running on empty, but oh, what a ride!
Gary Lamphier, Edmonton Journal
From $33 to $73 a barrel: That’s darned good mileage
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Is the big rebound in oil prices nearly over?
That’s what some analysts are saying, after watching crude prices more than double since mid-February.
“No, we are not going wildly bearish on crude oil prices,” insists Martin King, FirstEnergy Capital’s commodity expert.
“At the moment, however, we see oil prices as having being stretched too much,” he says, based on current market fundamentals.
“A move back to the low$60s to upper $50s would constitute a healthy correction for this market.”
If King’s analysis is right, watch for gasoline prices to moderate, and the recent oil-stoked rally on the Toronto Stock Exchange to fizzle out.
After hitting an eight-month high of $73.23 US a barrel Thursday, oil prices slipped Friday, closing at $72.04 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Still, that’s up nearly $40 or 120 per cent from the February lows of about $33.
(13 June 2009)
