Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Peak oil production predicted for 2014
Jeremy Hsu, MSNBC
Kuwati scientists update Hubbert model; findings debatable
—
Predicting the end of oil has proven tricky and often controversial, but Kuwaiti scientists now say that global oil production will peak in 2014.
Their work represents an updated version of the famous Hubbert model, which correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. Many researchers have since tried using the model to predict when worldwide oil production might peak.
Some have said production already peaked. One earlier model by Swedish researchers suggested that oil would peak sometime between 2008 and 2018. And other researchers have argued there are decades to go before oil production goes into irreversible decline. The only thing they all agree on: Oil is a finite and very valuable resource.
(12 March 2010)
Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model
Ibrahim Sami Nashawi, Adel Malallah and Mohammed Al-Bisharah; Energy & Fules (American Chemical Society)
Abstract
The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically plunged to less than $50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning.
Even though forecasting should be handled with extreme caution, it is always desirable to look ahead as far as possible to make an intellectual judgment on the future supplies of crude oil. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model to predict world crude oil supply with better accuracy than the existing models. Even though our approach originates from Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. As opposed to Hubbert single-cycle model, our model has more than one cycle depending on the historical oil production trend and known oil reserves. The presented method is a viable tool to predict the peak oil production rate and time. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data are available. The analysis of 47 major oil producing countries estimates the world’s ultimate crude oil reserve by 2140 BSTB and the remaining recoverable oil by 1161 BSTB. The world production is estimated to peak in 2014 at a rate of 79 MMSTB/D. OPEC has remaining reserve of 909 BSTB, which is about 78% of the world reserves. OPEC production is expected to peak in 2026 at a rate of 53 MMSTB/D. On the basis of 2005 world crude oil production and current recovery techniques, the world oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%.
(4 Feb 2010)
The entire paper is online. At Gas 2.0, Nick Chambers writes about the report thusly:
Kuwaiti Scientists Say Peak Oil Will Arrive in 2014
New research out of Kuwait, using a new method of calculating the crude oil production potential of 47 of the world’s largest oil producing countries, has found that peak oil — the period in time when oil production reaches a maximum and then begins to decline — will come much sooner than expected… 2014 to be exact.
-BA
Study sees efficiency as key to meeting energy needs
Tom Fowler and Brett Clanton, Houston Chronicle
The big buzz at the CERAWeek conference may be natural gas, but a new study says it’s time to light a fire under energy efficiency to meet future energy demands.
The study, unveiled Thursday at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ annual meeting in Houston, says that of all the options available, efficiency is the best way to improve the supply-demand balance quickly while keeping costs low and greenhouse gas emissions in check.
“It’s the one thing that’s really embraced across the spectrum,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS CERA. Enthusiasm for efficiency is high “around the world, at the top of the energy agenda, whether you’re talking about China, Europe or the United States.”
That enthusiasm will be needed because doubts remain about the other paths to a cleaner energy future.
The “Shale Gale,” as CERA has dubbed the surge in natural gas production, can’t do the job alone, a number of panelists said Thursday on the fourth day of the five-day conference.
(11 March 2010)
Traders bet on higher gasoline prices
Emma Farge, Reuters via The Globe and Mail
Some of the boldest speculative oil traders at banks and hedge funds are betting on a return of gasoline’s strength ahead of peak summer demand, bringing an early shift to summer from winter to the oil market.
Many traders use a popular spread play between gasoline and heating oil to try to make money from seasonal shifts in demand in the Northern Hemisphere.
But the spread is one of the most volatile and unpredictable in the oil market and is often called “the widowmaker” after the plight of those who have made the wrong bet.
Unusually cold winter weather and a belief in resurgent gasoline demand this summer has lured traders back onto the seasonal play after 2009’s relatively flat demand picture, analysts and traders said.
…Traders said historically low refinery utilization rates of around 80 per cent in the United States and Europe triggered by a sharp drop in industry demand for middle distillates, such as diesel, should constrain gasoline supply in the world’s top oil consumer.
“The hot money is on gasoline this season and a lot of hedge funds have bet on it,” said an oil products trader at a bank and a regular widowmaker trader.
(9 March 2010)
