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Are We In The Post-Peak Era?
Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA
Three weeks ago I wrote that I would defend the position that the world will never
produce as much oil as it did in July, 2008—82.946 million barrels per day (crude + condensate + gas liquids, EIA data). If this conjecture is correct, we are in the post-peak era. Today I will examine that proposition
… Are we in the post-peak era? If my reference forecast for non-OPEC oil is close to correct, then it is likely that we are. Any additional biofuels production we might see by 2015 after the recession will not change the situation. (The ethanol industry is in deep trouble right now as you might imagine.) I believe my “done deal” forecast was also correct, but that estimate, which was made when demand was still strong, is now buried under an avalanche of Depression Era economics. I did not foresee the severity of the downturn.
I have overrun my space for a weekly column, and you’ve got enough to chew on anyway. Next week I will finish up this series of articles by relating the supply issues presented here to future demand for oil. Put another way, I will discuss when the world at large might actually notice that the peak of world oil production is visible in the rear view mirror.
(19 February 2009)
BBC Covers Peak Oil: A Farm for the Future
Chris Vernon, The Oil Drum: Europe
Most would agree the subject of peak oil has not received the mainstream media coverage its importance warrants. On Friday the BBC will be broadcasting an excellent peak oil documentary, it focuses on farming. Presenter and co-producer Rebecca Hosking explores the importance of oil in farming and the potential impact of peak oil. The film has a passionate narrative centred on Rebecca’s small family farm in South West England; can she make her farm fit for the future?
A Farm for the Future
Fri 20 Feb 2009, 20:00 on BBC Two, repeated Sun 22 Feb, 17:00 on BBC Two (and also available on iPlayer).
The subject mater is top notch. Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg contribute, permaculutre, forest gardens, gardening vs farming, biofuels, biodiversity, industrial farming and no-till farming are all covered. It seems certain that present methods cannot go on feeding Britain as they are highly dependent on fossil-fuel. The film concentrates on the necessity to find a new way to feed the nation. For those unable to watch the film, Rebecca has provided a feature length article for the UK’s Mail on Sunday newspaper.
(19 February 2009)
Rob Hopkins wrote an enthusiastic post about the film (Link). In the comments section are two suggestions for viewing the film outside the UK. (hat tip to DB).
Crisis slowing investment in renewables: IEA
David Sheppard, Reuters
Economic slowdown and the recent collapse in oil prices is slowing investment in alternative energy, needed to wean the world off dependence on hydrocarbons, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.
IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters in an interview the sharp decline in the oil market, which has seen prices collapse by more than 70 percent from a peak of almost $150 per barrel last year was also slowing the search for new sources of oil as existing fields were depleted.
“Unfortunately we are seeing a deceleration occurring in the switch to renewables — and also nuclear — as both are very capital intensive,” Tanaka said.
“While the economic slowdown itself serves to reduce CO2 emissions, if we don’t invest now we will have serious problems in the future.”
(16 February 2009)
greenz at Treehugger comments:
What’s next for Peak Oil?
For years, we had people blogging about Peak Oil and how we should prepare, while trying to explain why this important source of energy was running out. Oil companies and others spent lots of money explaining why they didn’t agree, or why it was a myth or even a conspiracy, and mainstream media didn’t seem to care either way. Here at Treehugger, of course, you have been getting the story as it unfolded, at least over the past five exciting years.
History of the term “peaknik”
Russell Smith, Globe and Mail
How irony loses its irony
—
A peaknik, according to our inventive media, is a person who believes the “peak oil” theory (that supplies of oil are running out and prices will grow prohibitively high and civilization will change dramatically). The word is an example of how ironic and derogatory terms become so widespread that they lose their ironic connotations.
Peaknik is a play on peacenik, a derogatory term for an anti-war protester in the sixties, which was itself a play on beatnik, which was a play on Sputnik. The -nik ending in Russian corresponds to the -er ending in English, meaning someone who does something (buyer, watcher, traveller). The word beatnik was coined by Herb Caen, a columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle, in 1958, to refer humorously to the pretensions of the bohemians who called themselves “beat,” from beaten down, fatigued or downtrodden. (Contrary to popular belief, “beat” didn’t refer to music.)
Sputnik I, the Soviet satellite, had been launched the year before, and it had caused great agitation in the United States, as it signalled the first Soviet victory in the space race at the height of the Cold War. Sputnik means, literally, co-traveller.
(18 February 2009)
