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FSN: Richard Heinberg Interview
Jim Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour
Richard Heinberg is one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil (oil depletion) educators and is a Research Fellow of Post Carbon Institute. He is the award-winning author of seven books including Powerdown, The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World; and The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse.
Mr. Heinberg is a journalist, educator, lecturer, and a Core Faculty member of New College of California, where he teaches a program on “Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community.” His monthly MuseLetter has been published since 1992 and his essays and articles have appeared widely and in many languages. He was featured prominently in the documentary film The End of Suburbia, he has been quoted in Time magazine, and his work has been discussed in articles syndicated by Reuters and the Associated Press. Since 2002, he has given over two hundred lectures on oil depletion to a wide variety of audiences – from insurance executives to peace activists, from local and national elected officials to Jesuit volunteers. He and his wife Janet Barocco live in Santa Rosa, California, in an energy-efficient home. He is also an avid amateur violinist.
(22 September 2007)
Matt Simons: Meeting the Challenge #5
Fix Energy Infrastructure before the ‘Bridge Collapses’
Staff, Energy Tech Stocks
Much as the world was riveted by the recent collapse of a highway bridge in the U.S. state of Minnesota, Matthew Simmons fears it may soon be riveted by an energy pipeline or refinery disaster.
Simmons, one of the critical thinkers whose innovative ideas form the basis of EnergyTechStocks.com‘s new series on how to meet the challenge of rising global energy demand, said the United States needs to wake up – and fast – to the fact that much of its energy infrastructure is in as bad shape as many of its bridges.
The Houston investment banker said he believes that 85% to 90% of the U.S.’s energy infrastructure is as bad off as the nation’s bridges, a much smaller percentage of which is deemed by officials to be structurally deficient. “We have to act now, before we have the equivalent of a catastrophic bridge collapse,” he said.
(17 September 2007)
Other articles in the “Meeting the Challenge” series from Simmons and other energy experts can be accessed from the Energy Tech Stocks homepage.
In Praise of ASPO 6
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
… ASPO 6 was a great improvement on ASPO5, a much higher standard of presentations, more debate and discussion, a broader range of subjects and (thankfully) less interminable presentations on peak oil models.
Although I took reams of what now, in the cold light of day, appear to be pretty much illegible notes, I am not going to write exhaustive accounts of all the talks. That is already being ably done over at the ever-wonderful Oil Drum (Day 1 here and here, Day 2 here and here). The conference began by being told by James Schlesinger that “we are all peakists now” (more on that tomorrow), and concluded with Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s energy minister, using the word “powerdown”. In between there were a diversity of presentations, mostly insightful but occasionally frustrating.
…most of the talks were of a very high quality, even the very difficult to follow Professor Xiongqi Pang from the China Petroleum University (yes, such a thing does exist), whose Powerpoint set out the very real challenges that peak oil present to China. It is clear that awareness on the peak oil issue within China is growing rapidly.
Many of the other talks I will discuss in more detail in subsequent “ASPO 6. In Praise of…” posts (there will be 7 in total). In conclusion, it is clear that the peak oil debate is moving forwards very fast. In #2 I will talk about the presentation Ray Leonard gave, which was, for me, probably the most insightful talk of the conference, offering an insight into the panic and chickens-coming-home-to-roost that is happening within the oil industry.
It is also praiseworthy that this conference focused more on solutions, and allowed space for speakers whose insights are beyond the usual ASPO comfort zone. These included Nate Hagens’ excellent presentation on evolution and psychology as they relate to consumption and our relationship with oil, Debbie Cook’s presentation on municipal scale responses to peak oil, and my being able to speak about Transition Initiatives and the concept of resilience.
This was the ASPO conference where peak oil, as Schlesinger said, became mainstream, thanks in no small part to the indefatigable chairman, Dr. Colin Campbell. That in itself, and the fact that during the conference oil broke through its price record and hit $82 a barrel, gave it a feeling of something historic.
(21 September 2007)
The ASPO Conference – Final Afternoon
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
The overlying theme of this year’s conference was Time to React? The final session was set-up to respond to that question, or perhaps it would be more cautious to say to explore it.
The session was guided by Eddie Hobbs of RTE , and began with Debbie Cook , a former Mayor of Huntington Beach, CA. She talked about how some the issues should be addressed in local government. She felt that the challenge that we face is more of an adaptive one than that of technology.
…She was followed by Rob Hopkins of Transition Towns , which has been developed in Totnes. They even have their own currency, to encourage local shopping. They had looked at future energy scenarios , much influenced by four books, of which Powerdown seemed to fit their perception better than others.
…The third speaker was Eddie O’Connor who spoke as an Irishman at the end of a very long supply line for fuel, and who was becoming concerned about long-term viability. He listed the major Chinese purchases of oil and gas and the growing energy density of their culture. With no Energy Treaty in Europe they do not have the clout to compete, and thus must look for an alternate reliable source. This they believe they have found in wind, and by bringing these together in a grid that covers the country they hope to show that collectively the farms can produce at 35% because of the areas around the country that they lie in.
(22 September 2007)
Two barrels of oil are used for each one found. $100 oil anyone?
Eric Reguly, Globe & Mail
ROME — For the peak-oil crowd, that merry band of doomsters who believe global oil production is about to go into irreversible decline and plunge us into a new Stone Age, the timing couldn’t have been better. As the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas was holding its conference in Cork, Ireland, earlier this week, oil prices conveniently set record prices. By midweek, they had gone as high as $82 (U.S.) a barrel.
The conference speakers were no doubt thrilled. If oil prices had been falling, their message would have been laughed out of court. As it were, Ronald Oxburgh, the British lord and geologist who is the former head of Shell U.K., one of the world’s biggest oil companies, looked like something of a prophet. He said oil prices could hit $150 as supplies fail to keep pace with soaring demand. Another speaker, CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin, predicted prices of “around $100 a barrel by the end of next year.” Talisman Energy chief executive officer Jim Buckee talked about rapidly declining production from once-prolific and seemingly stalwart oil fields.
For years, decades even, the peakists have been considered the lunatic fringe by the mainstream oil and gas industry, with its visions of endless gushers. The industry had a simple but compelling argument: If you don’t believe us, listen to the economists.
The economists said – and still say – there is no shortage of oil; there is just a shortage of oil at low prices. …They were right. But maybe the time has come to stop putting so much faith in the economists.
…In one sense, the peak oil argument isn’t even worth arguing about. Of course oil production will – eventually – decline, plummet perhaps, for the simple reason the planet has run short of the rotting dinosaur carcasses needed to make oil. The better argument is that it scarcely matters whether oil production peaks this year or next if a huge gap develops between demand (rising alarmingly) and production (barely rising or rising not at all). In either case, the price goes up, as it has been, leading to potential economic upheaval or worse.
(21 September 2007)
The button to hit is ‘Start,’ not ‘Panic’
Jack Z. Smith, Star-Telegram
…Don’t count me among the “peak oil” theorists who believe that world oil production will reach its ultimate zenith any day now. My guess is that is more likely to happen 25 or more years from now. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be wasting the precious black gold, especially because higher consumption increases air pollution and, most climate scientists believe, contributes to global warming.
So what should we do to diversify our energy supplies, pollute less, reduce our reliance on foreign oil and buy more time before “peak oil” becomes reality?
Emphasize energy conservation. Raise vehicle fuel economy standards by five to 10 miles per gallon over 10 years. Provide much stronger financial incentives for electric and gas utilities to help their customers curb consumption by doing everything from buying more energy-efficient heating and cooling systems to using compact fluorescent bulbs.
(21 September 2007)
