Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Current global challenges and alternative energy futures for South Africa
Hendler, Holliday, Ratcliffe and Wakeford; ASPO-South Africa
ASPO South Africa has prepared an extensive document covering the impact of Peak Oil and other factors on the future development of South Africa. Two scenarios are proposed to investigate potential impacts responses.
(3 August 2007)
The full 83-page report and an executive summary are both available in PDF.
Contributor Simon Ratcliffe writes:
A report which explores the implications of peak oil for South Africa in an integrated way. It therefore looks at the interrelationships between oil depletion, imbalances inthe global financial system and climate change.
Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth
Douglas Reynolds, The Oil Drum
…we believe another ingredient, equally as important as technology, is the grade or inherent value of energy resource inputs available to an economy. This has to do with productivity. Each type of energy resource has an inherent physical potential for being more or less productive and that potential is the energy grade. Higher grade energy resources have more potential for being productive than lower grade energy resources.
Energy is the driving force behind industrial production and is indeed the driving force behind any economic activity. However, if an economy’s available energy resources have low grades, i.e. low potential productivity, then new technology will not be able to stimulate economic growth as much. On the other hand, high grade energy resources could magnify the effect of technology and create tremendous economic growth. High grade resources can act as magnifiers of technology, but low grade resources can dampen the forcefulness of new technology. This leads to the conclusion that it is important to emphasize the role of the inherent nature of resources in economic growth more fully.
To see better how this very subtle idea is a not so subtle cause of the industrial revolution, and possibly other economic epochs, we must look at some simple physics of energy resource characteristics. We believe that the most important resources for economic achievements are energy resources, therefore, we look at ways to compare energy resources.
…This comparison gives us a new way to analyze economic history. Many of the greatest economic epochs in history seem to occur at the point in time when the economy starts to use a high grade energy resource. Examples are ancient man’s switch from hunting to farming, which created the great ancient civilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia; England’s switch from wood to coal in the 18th century, which helped to create the industrial revolution; and the U.S.’s switch from coal to oil in the 20th century, which created the modern mobility revolution, also identified by some historians as the second industrial revolution (4). All of these were changes to higher grade resources.
From these grades, we can infer that as humans have advanced over time, they have used higher grade energy resources. We believe that one of the causes of human economic development is the fact that humans used higher grade energy resources which created lower costs for production. Furthermore, we believe that much of economic growth is not due to better technology alone, but rather due to a combination of technology and higher grade resources.
…humans have made several energy transitions before in history and enjoyed growing economies during or after these transitions, but … most of the more successful energy transitions in history were transitions to higher grade energy resources not to lower ones. Therefore, we are concerned with how successful the next energy transition will be. We propose three alternative scenarios for the future transition from oil to oil alternatives.
1. The economy goes to a higher grade resource, creating a successful energy transition.
2. The economy goes to a lower grade energy resource with better technology, creating a less successful but palatable energy transition.
3. The economy goes to lower grade energy resources with virtually unchanged technology, creating an unsuccessful energy transition.
…guest post by oil and energy economist Douglas Reynolds. Dr. Reynolds is Graduate Director of Economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and author of “Scarcity and Growth Considering Oil and Energy”, and “Alaska and North Slope Natural Gas”.
(24 August 2007)
Another good piece of energy education from The Oil Drum.
From the sociological and historical perspective, it should be pointed out that transitions to higher grades of energy are not beneficial to everyone. Northern Europe’s transition to coal power was a tragedy to other parts of the globe who were conquered and colonized. Nor was this transition beneficial to indigenous populations and ecosystems. -BA
Energy Round-Up from Canada: August 24th 2007
Stoneleigh, The Oil Drum: Canada
With arctic sovereignty increasingly in dispute due to potential oil and gas discoveries in a warmer world, the various interested parties seem almost desperate to stake their claim (and some are apparently more desperate than others). Meanwhile sovereignty debates continue further south at the Montebello SPP summit.
Danny Williams (one scary poker player), finally suceeds in securing a deal on the Hebron field after calling the oil companies’ bluff. They said they had plenty of other opportunities if Newfoundland wouldn’t play ball, but in a peak oil world Williams said they’d come back to the table, and they did.
As for the developing credit crunch, risk appears less and less contained over time, as international concern grows over the highy-rated ‘assets’ derived from the American mortgage market. Even money market funds are beginning to experience a flight to quality.
(24 August 2007)
The original has headlines and article excerpts from a Canadian peak oil perspective.
