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The future of hydrocarbons: Hubbert’s peak or a plateau?
Eric S. Cheney, Marianne W. Hawkes, GSA Today (Geological Society of America)
Due to economics, science, technology, and the increased manufacturing of hydrocarbons from sources other than oil, the world’s production of oil and gas in the twenty-first century will not peak sharply but will plateau or gradually decline. The scenario presented here places us among the optimists.
Data used in this paper come mostly from the Web sites of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the National Energy Board of Canada and from pre-1977 publications of the former U.S. Bureau of Mines. …
History
The concept that resources are essentially finite may have originated with Thomas Malthus. He concluded in 1798 that the exponential growth of Earth’s human population was unsustainable because agricultural production could only increase arithmetically. Since then, mechanized farming, irrigation, refrigeration, chemical fertilizers (from petroleum and other mineral deposits), hybrid grains, genetic modification, and improved transportation systems have blossomed. Now, famine is only caused by political events and by the inability to deliver emergency supplies following natural disasters.
The concept of the inelasticity of oil resources stems from Hubbert’s (1956) prediction, based on declining rates of discovery, that the annual production of oil in the 48 contiguous United States would crest in 1970, which it did, at 3.5 Gb. Hubbert’s analysis excluded Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, where oil was discovered in the 1960s and later. Because the contiguous United States is the most explored area in the world and because the worldwide rate of discovery has declined in the past decade, “Hubbert’s Peak” is a common model for the world’s future production (Deffeyes, 2001). “Peak oil” posits that production will fall as sharply in the twenty-first century as it rose in the twentieth. If so, the economic and political consequences are potentially dire (Urstadt, 2006).
World oil and gas currently have annual production growth rates of 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively. Predicting exhaustion is not as simple as dividing present reserves by projected production. Estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and gas are qualitative; uncertainties include future prices, geologic models for undiscovered deposits, and future technology. Production is also driven by demand, but significantly higher prices might decrease demand and, hence, affect production.
…Conclusions
Table 1 and Deffeyes (2001, p. 3) show that U.S. oil production in 2004 was about twice what Hubbert projected (mostly because of production in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico). Van der Veen (2006) noted that by 2004 cumulative U.S. oil production (exclusive of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico) totaled 161 Gb and that Hubbert had predicted the ultimately recoverable amount would be 170 Gb. 2004 reserves, exclusive of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, were ~13 Gb.
Economics, conservation, substitution, future advances in geoscience and technology, and concerns about global warming imply that the world’s combined production of conventional and nonconventional oil and gas will not peak sharply but will plateau or decline gradually in the twenty-first century. The world’s per capita production of conventional oil and gas will, of course, decline more steeply.
As for gasoline, it will not run out soon, but it will become progressively more expensive. Presumably, some will always be available at US$20 to US$100 (in 2006 dollars) per 3.8 liters, even if it comes from tar sands, cellulose, coal, or oil shale.
Static or gradually declining production would be fairly easy to manage if oil and politics did not mix. Crises will recur due to aggressive or unstable exporting nations and to counterproductive legislation and foreign policies of some of the major consuming nations.
(June 2007)
A PDF version is online.
Oil dependence spells economic disaster for Ireland, Lee warns
Emma Kennedy, The Post (Ireland)
Ireland is on course for an economic recession in the coming years if we do not reduce our dependence on oil, according to warnings from a new RTE television programme.
The programme, Future Shock: End Of The Oil Age, explores the challenges that Ireland faces when global oil reserves have been depleted. The central message of the programme, which is presented by RTE’s chief economics correspondent George Lee, is that it is only a matter of when, not if, oil reserves run out.
Ireland uses over 200,000 barrels of oil a day. This represents enough to fill Liberty Hall in Dublin over 800 times during the course of a year, according to Lee.
(17 June 2007)
Energy Security in Nova Scotia (PDF)
Dr. Larry Hughes, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
This report examines energy security in Nova Scotia: the province’s vulnerability and how this vulnerability can be overcome. World energy prices are rising because of increasing demand and tighter supply. As a result, energy security – the availability of a regular supply of energy at an affordable price – is becoming an issue in many jurisdictions.
This report reviews Nova Scotia’s
- existing sources, suppliers and supplies of energy;
- existing energy services; and
- potential indigenous energy supplies.
The report examines energy demand reduction strategies, specifically energy conservation and energy efficiency, and it examines strategies to replace imported energy with provincial supplies.
Ultimately, the success or failure of an energy security policy depends upon energy supply and the associated energy infrastructure. Although the need for energy security in Canada is downplayed due to the country’s immense energy wealth, the fact that this wealth is unevenly distributed means that some regions are more vulnerable than others to the impact of rising energy costs and supply shortfalls.
Nova Scotia is particularly energy insecure. Ninety percent of the energy consumed in Nova Scotia is obtained from sources outside the province, with most originating outside of Canada. Sixty-three percent of the province’s energy supply is derived from petroleum products, 25 percent from imported coal, with less than 2 percent from provincial offshore natural gas and less than 6 percent is obtained from renewables.
Dr. Larry Hughes is a Professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. He leads the Department’s Energy Research Group, which examines energy and environmental concerns relating to energy security and climate change.
(June 2007)
A comprehensive 74-page document, well written and attractively laid out. Perhaps a model for other efforts? -BA
In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method
Jeffrey J. Brown, GraphOilogy
The Hubbert Lineariztion (HL) method (the Hubbert Linearization term was coined by Stuart Staniford, with The Oil Drum) is essentially based on the mathematical observation that a parabolic (bell shaped) curve can be plotted as a line, when we plot P/Q versus Q, where P = annual production and Q = cumulative production to date. The parabolic curve assumption is based on the premise that we tend to find the big fields first. In essence, “Peak Oil” is the story of the rise and fall of the big fields. The parabolic HL model suggests that the world and Saudi Arabia are both probably now in terminal decline. While the overall world decline may be quite gradual, the impact on world oil exports will probably be very severe. See the following article for more information on the HL method: www.energybulletin.net/16459.html
Note that if the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia is in long term decline, which I believe that it is, it is my understanding that every single field that has ever produced one million barrels per day (mbpd) or more of crude oil (crude + condensate) is now in decline. Saudi Arabia has one field coming on line that might make one mbpd, although a lot of people have their doubts. The only real confirmed one mbpd and larger field on the horizon is Kashagan, which probably won’t break the one mbpd mark until 2020 at the earliest.
As many people know, Kenneth Deffeyes predicted, using the HL method, a world crude oil peak between 2004 and 2008, most likely in 2005. (He observed that world production apparently peaked in 2000, but he never backed away from his mathematical model that the probable peak was between 2004 and 2008.)
In any case, in the above referenced Texas/Lower 48 article, we supported Deffeyes’ work, and we added the Texas model.
(18 June 2007)
