Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Peak Oil: What are some of the Implications and Energy Options for California to Consider? (Video)
Matt Simmons, University of California TV (UCTV)
Peak oil theory states that oil will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output. It is estimated that approximately half of all oil that will be recovered, has been recovered, and oil production may reach a peak in the near future, or perhaps already has. Then what?
(12 March 2007)
Requires RealPlayer.
Roger Bezdek on peak oil, global warming and Australia (Audio)
Global Public Media
Dr. Roger Bezdek, president of Management Information Systems Inc. and co-author of the Hirsch report and its follow up, talks with GPM’s Australian correspondent Andi Hazelwood about the Hirsch report 2 and a half years on, peak oil, global warming and his upcoming Australian speaking tour.
For more on Dr. Bezdek’s June 2007 Australian speaking engagements, visit ASPO-Australia.
(8 June 2007)
Another Near Miss?
Julian Darley, Post Carbon Institute
A huge forest fire looks as if it will now miss the tar sands central city of Fort McMurray. [Forest fire edges toward Fort McMurray (CBC News)] A few days ago, Cyclone Gonu narrowly avoided causing petroleum havoc in the Persian Gulf. Either of these events could trigger severe spikes in the price of petroleum. In either case the damage could have been long lived if petroleum processing installations had been hit. Neither of these events was in most analysts’ top ten list of trigger events.
For now these events may soon be forgotten, though not by those who have lost family and friends as in Oman. It is often suggested that if an event does prove the trigger for some kind of serious oil supply disruption (including a huge price run-up) then it will be caused by some completely unforeseen events. This is hardly very reassuring for those charged with keeping public services running and keeping the supply chains filled. It is however yet more reason to begin planning for an orderly transition away from oil dependence.
(8 June 2007)
Author Julian Darley, author of “High Noon for Natural Gas”, has been busy as head of Post Carbon Institute. He says that this post on his blog is the first of more to come. -BA
Russian Car Sales & Net Oil Exports
Jeffrey J. Brown (westexas), The Oil Drum
The following story about booming Russian car sales is a perfect example of the “Export Land” Model, where rising domestic consumption in exporting countries can overwhelm increases in oil production, resulting in lower net oil exports.
As I warned in January, 2006 (see my article, “Net Oil Exports Revisited”), net oil exports by all of the top three net oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway) fell from 2005 to 2006 (EIA data). Based on the following article, since 2002, foreign car sales in Russia have been increasing at the rate of about 50% per year (doubling about every 1.4 years). I wonder what effect this is having on gasoline consumption in Russia? …
Russian car boom catches eye of Japan, Germany
by Jochen Legewie (The Japan Times)… Russia is experiencing a good old-fashioned oil boom. Its deepening ties with European energy suppliers, along with rising prices of crude oil and other resources, has created a steady stream of revenue. Having gone through a major economic crisis as recently as 1998, the country has made a complete about face and is now prudently stockpiling funds for future rainy days.
…In 2002, only 112,000 foreign cars were sold in Russia. This year, the VDA is forecasting that 1,350,000 foreign vehicles will be sold – a 12-fold increase. Conversely, sales of Russian-produced cars have been on a steady decline, from 857,000 in 2002 to a forecast of 750,000 in 2007.
In my opinion, because of the Export Land Model, the ongoing decline in world crude oil production, relative to May, 2005, will look more like a crash from the point of view of importing countries.
Based on our mathematical models (Hubbert Linearization), Russia, at least their mature basins, is at about the same stage of depletion as the United States, in the vicinity of 85% depleted. This suggests that when Russian oil production turns down again (no later than next year, in my opinion), it will be a very sharp decline, resulting in a probably catastrophic decline in Russian oil exports.
(9 June 2007)
TOD Canada News Round-Up
Stoneleigh, The Oil Drum: Canada
Energy-related news headlines from Canada.
(8 June 2007)
Review: A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash
Pete Vonder Haar, Film Threat
Remember that scene in “Serenity” when Mal asks Wash to clarify how their ship’s landing might get “interesting” and Wash replied, “Oh god, oh god, we’re all gonna die?” That’s kind of the feeling one gets after watching “A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash,” Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack’s documentary on our dependence on oil and the possible ramifications for when the we enter the post-“peak oil” period, which may be right around the corner.
…For examples, we’re offered the cities of Baku, Azerbaijan, Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, and McCamey, Texas. All three, at one time, were huge centers of oil production (Venezuela was at one time the largest exporter of oil in the world), with hundreds of wells and prosperour communities. Now, after the wells dried up, all that’s left are ghost towns with silently rusting skeletons of oil derricks dotting the landscape. The filmmakers use these case histories to illustrate a larger point; that fewer and fewer new basins are being found, and those we have discovered are smaller in size and more difficult to reach.
…Gelpke and McCormack have assembled a distinguished group of phycisists, geologists, policy analysts, and industry professionals to make the case, and they do a damn fine job of it. With the exception of a few hyperbolic soundbites at the outset (if I hear oil referred to as “blood of the earth” one more time I was going to have to look for Egg Shen in the final credits), the doc is quite sober and rhetoric-free. Maybe when executives from Shell and Anadarko and former Bush Administration officials are telling you things are bad, you might want to believe them.
(8 June 2007)
