Peak oil – Feb 5

Click on the headline (link) for the full text.

Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage

The great fuel folly
Jeremy Leggett, The Guardian
Oil firms’ output is down, yet profits skyrocket. It all points to the crisis predicted by the peakists
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Records tumble as the oil majors release their annual results. The most profit made by a European company: Shell’s $27bn. The most profit made by any company ever: ExxonMobil’s $40bn. Amid the noise about capital allocation and windfall taxes, there is a danger of missing the most important results of all. The oil and gas production of Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron is going down, not up. When BP announces its results today, industry insiders expect them to be down too.

This is not what is supposed to be happening. Our oil-addicted economies are supposed to be growing. The international oil giants are supposed to be expanding their production, not shrinking it. They are not supposed to be leaving the technically less well-equipped national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco and Pemex to carry the burden of expanding production to match global demand.

For people like me who worry about peak oil, the writing on the wall is ever clearer. We live in a world geared to the assumption that demand for oil can be met by supply. But it can’t for much longer. The fallout will dominate our lives within a few years.

Economists tend not to see the problem. As the oil price goes up, they assume more cash will be available for exploration, the oil majors will duly explore, and they will find more oil. But if so, why have the big five oil companies cut exploration spending in real terms?
(5 February 2008)

‘Dean of Oil Analysts’ Maxwell (Part 1 of 4):
Oil Shortages Start in 2010; Peak Oil Hits 2012-2015
Energy Tech Stocks
Nearly 40 years on Wall Street, plus 12 years before that working for a major oil company, equals a lifetime of experience for Charles T. Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co., known as the “dean of energy analysts.” Now, in an interview that sounded like a preliminary draft of a valedictory address, Princeton and Oxford-educated Maxwell has laid out in stark, uncomplicated terms what might be called the “Nightmare on Main Street” that he sees barreling toward America and the world.

Every investor needs to pay attention to Maxwell’s nightmare scenario, because if the dean’s forecast is correct, it’s going to influence every investment decision made for at least the next 10 to 20 years. As we’ll see in this four-part series, although Maxwell sees much pain being inflicted on consumers and investors, he also sees opportunities to make a lot of money.

It all boils down to this, Maxwell told EnergyTechStocks.com: We live in a world where there is only about 1.2% more oil available each year, not enough to keep up with 1.5% annual demand growth. Between now and 2010, this supply shortfall will be made up through a drawdown in inventories, helped out by a slowdown in demand in 2008 and 2009 due to a recession or near-recession in the U.S.

But in 2010, Maxwell said, the shortfall will become greater than can be made up by what’s still in inventory, and thus will begin a long period of global oil scarcity that will get worse starting in 2012 or 2013, which is when Maxwell foresees a “peak” in conventional oil production. It gets even worse in 2015, which is when he expects a peak in the production of all liquids, a category that includes condensates, tar sands oil and biodiesel.

Maxwell described the period 2010 through 2015 as the “letting down” of production.
(4 February 2008)
Part 2 of the article is now online. -BA

Huntington Beach mayor to run for Congress
Cindy Carcamo, Orange County Register
Debbie Cook, an energy conservation advocate, said she will pull papers to run for the 46th Congressional seat held by Republican Dana Rohrabacher.
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HUNTINGTON BEACH – Mayor Debbie Cook said she knows she faces an “uphill battle” to win the 46th Congressional seat held by long-time Republican Dana Rohrabacher.

But the environmental attorney, who is a Democrat, said that won’t stop her from taking out papers today to run for the heavily Republican district, stretching along the coast from Costa Mesa to the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

“I am so passionate about the issues and challenges we have — like energy — that I just feel like I’m compelled to at least try,” Cook, 53, said. “I’m not going to die thinking that I left one stone unturned.”

Cook, a two-term councilwoman who has spoken internationally about oil scarcity and energy conservation, announced her intention to run Saturday at the Democratic Mayor’s breakfast in Anaheim. She will be termed out of the council after this year.

… Cook is a member of the board of directors of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas and serves as Chair of the Energy and Environment Committee for the Southern California Association of Governments.
(3 February 2008)
Related story from the Daily Pilot: H.B. mayor touts energy saving in run against rep..

Corporations Uber Alles on Peak Oil (Video)
John, How to Boil a Frog
“John” an ersatz corporate speaker gives a background talk on peak oil for executives: “Should we tell the public about peak oil?” (Satire). To access, click on the first icon in the path, labeled “What is Peak Oil?”.
(February 2008)

Peak oil: Will we see it coming?
Edward Duggan and Steven Rothman, Eugene Register-Guard (Oregon)
…Businesses also have a strong incentive to maintain the illusion of unlimited oil. Oil is many companies’ primary source of revenue, either directly or indirectly. Automobile manufacturers, for example, rely on cheap oil to sell their expensive cars. They have an incentive to promote the idea that oil is not running out in order to maintain a customer base that does not consider the potential costs in the future.

Oil companies as well have huge capital investments in oil that are not easily transferred to other forms of fuel. The investment required to move from oil and gas production to ethanol or other energy is large and may be accomplished only through government assistance.

The few groups that have incentives to look at the potential for peak oil, such as environmentalists or companies involved in alternative energy, do not have the power or resources to demand attention.

One day, oil-producing countries will declare that they have run out of oil, and we will know then that oil had peaked long before. Should we wait until that day before we believe that production of oil will peak?

Maybe oil production already has peaked. The world economy rests on the honesty of the House of Saud and other oil producing states – unless we have more transparency or reduce our dependence on oil.

Edward Duggan and Steven Rothman are doctoral candidates in the Department of Political Science at the University of Oregon.
(3 February 2008)

Getting ready for the end of oil
Nancy Crawley, The Grand Rapids Press
Where will you be when all the oil is gone?

How will you get your food, heat your home and get to work?

We may not be around when the last drop burns away, but a 37-year-old Wayland Middle School teacher has taken on the task of convincing us to prepare for that day.

The answer for Aaron Wissner lies in rethinking our society so people and communities become more self-sufficient.

His efforts drew the attention of The Wall Street Journal. Last weekend, the paper published a front-page story in which Wissner was the lead example of what it said is a growing movement among Americans who believe in the “peak oil” theory.
(3 February 2008)
Also posted at Aaron’s website, with some corrections. More information on Aaron Wissner and his group:
localfuture.org
valuesystem.livejournal.com
peakenergy.blogspot.com
Wall Street Journal story on Wissner
online.wsj.com/article/SB120128939885117541.html

Reporter Nancy Crawley focuses on short term preparations and the possibility of general collapse despite my assertion that it is only a 1 in 6 chance (I recall she noted that the only time she heard chances like that was in reference to rolling a die). Still, the story serves to point out a few things that local individuals and communities can do, as well as getting out the word on the next event, and the conference. All in all, being the subject of newspaper stories can be a mixed bag, but as “Oily Cassandra” points out, “education by any means necessary”, and indeed if it takes dodging a few slings and arrows to reach the interested, then the effort is worthwhile.

Kunstler Lecture (audio)
James Howard Kunstler, Echoshock Radio
END OF THE AGE OF OIL
James Howard Kunstler new lecture
From Peak Oil to the “Long Emergency”. Lecture as 1st visiting scholar to SFU Urban Studies. Part 1 of 2. 080201 show 1 hr 56 MB
(February 2008)

PEAK OIL Is It Real? When Might It Occur?
Matthew Simmons, Simmons & Company
Slideshow posted last week.
(27 January 2008)