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Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years
Carl Mortished, UK Times
World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell.
The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development.
Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”
The boss of the world’s second-largest oil company forecast that, regardless of government policy initiatives and investment in renewables, the world would need more nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil sands.
“Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue,” he wrote.
Mr van der Veer is expected to discuss Shell’s energy outlook today at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
(25 January 2008)
Interview with van der Veer by New York Times.
Shell deserves credit for wanting to be part of the climate change solution (The Scotsman)
The letter sent to Shell employees (TOD)
Excerpts and comments by Big Gav
Contributor David Strahan comments:
Jeroen van der Veer forecasts peak in 2015, in effect
The Gospel According to Matthew
Mimi Swartz, Texas Monthly
For more than twenty years, an extremely successful Houston investment banker has been trying to convince the world that the end (of oil) is nigh. Now that people are finally starting to listen, is it too late?
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…here is Matthew R. Simmons, the head of one of the largest investment banking firms in the world, stabbing at his salad greens and heatedly discussing the chaos to come when, as he has long predicted, global oil production peaks and for the rest of our time on earth we struggle and suffer and barely endure under a diminishing supply of fuel until it disappears entirely. This idea is known as “peak oil,” and Simmons is its most fervent, and fearsome, apostle. As he puts it, “I don’t see why people are so worried about global warming destroying the planet-peak oil will take care of that.”
Slashing through his entrée, barely stopping for breath, he describes a bleak future, in which demand for oil will always surpass supply, the price will continue to rise-“so fast your head will spin”-and all sorts of problems in our carbon-dependent world will ensue. As fuel shortfalls complicate global delivery routes and leave farmers unable to run their tractors, we will face massive food shortages. Products made with petroleum, from asphalt and plastic to fabrics and computer chips, will also become scarcer and scarcer. Standards of living will fall, and people will not be able to pay their debts. Lending will tighten, and eventually there will be major defaults. Growth will cease, and hoarding will set in as oil becomes increasingly rare. Then, according to Simmons, the wars will begin. That is the peak oil scenario.
Simmons is an unlikely Cassandra in this, the energy capital of the world. He is a consummate insider-a friend of Mayor Bill White’s and of innumerable nabobs in the local as well as global energy business, a graduate with distinction from Harvard Business School, a Republican who advised presidential candidate George W. Bush on energy policy, and an extremely wealthy man. In 2006 his investment firm, Simmons and Company International, closed 35 transactions worth $8.7 billion and co-managed 19 offerings worth $6.7 billion. He lives with his wife, Ellen, in one of the city’s most exclusive neighborhoods and also owns a vacation house in Maine.
Yet at 64, Simmons opts to spend his days traveling the globe at his own expense, speaking at universities and business forums and to tiny alumni groups and just about anyone else, trying to convince an uninformed, uninterested populace that the end is very, very near.
(February 2008 issue)
Long article, describing Simmons’ background and the basic ideas of peak oil. -BA
Sneak Peak
Nicholas Jackson, Texas Monthly
Texas Monthly talks with two online energy experts concerning peak oil and the future of energy demand.
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Nate Hagens is an editor of The Oil Drum, an online community that seeks to raise awareness about energy issues. A Ph.D. candidate in Natural Resources at the University of Vermont, Hagens’s particular areas of interest are the principles of net energy and the bio-physiological factors that drive our energy demand.
Matt Savinar is the editor and writer of Life After the Oil Crash, a blog which paints a bleak picture of what life on earth will look like when natural oil supplies run out. Savinar recently received his J.D. from the University of California at Hastings College of the Law, and his work is quoted extensively on the floor of the United States Congress.
(February 2008 issue)
Adjustments will be needed as oil supplies dwindle
Bill Boyne, Post-Bulletin
It’s time to stop talking about the global oil shortage and do something about it.
That was the message of two nationally known oil industry experts who spoke at the Rochester Community and Technical College’s Heintz Center in Rochester last week.
The speakers were John Kaufmann, senior policy analyst for the Oregon Department of Energy, and Daniel Lerch, program manager for the Post Carbon Institute in Portland, Ore.
They hammered on these points:
1. There is no question that the world is running out of oil and that we will all feel the damaging results very shortly. Roughly 90 percent of scientists and oil industry experts support this view.
2. When the Oil Peak passes, there will be no way to find adequate new sources of oil supplies and we will have only one alternative — and that is to reduce consumption.
Kaufmann said that reducing energy consumption will also help to reduce global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from burning fossil fuels. He added that we will lose another major energy source — natural gas — but that is not expected to occur until about 2025.
He said that adapting to the oil shortage will require difficult and painful adjustments for every community. Everything will be affected — transportation, land use, business operations, local governments, food supplies, education, health care and many others.
Walking, biking, public transportation and car pooling will have to be emphasized to reduce automobile use.
Cities will have to favor greater population density to combat urban sprawl and reduce transportation costs. It will be necessary to seek out local food supplies to avoid the energy costs involved in importing food from thousands of miles away.
Factories will face higher costs in importing materials and in transporting products around the country. This will cause serious economic problems both locally and nationally. In short, he said, “There is no silver bullet for dealing with this problem — although there may be a few silver B.B.s”
Lerch said that to deal with the lack of oil, communities must:
1. Make long-term plans for dealing with transportation and land use.
2. Decide on a 100-year time frame for handling regional planning.
3. Address the issue of private energy consumption.
4. Engage the business community.
5. Build a sense of community and community resilience in dealing with these problems.
Kaufmann added that cities will have to address the problem of vulnerable and low-income residents whose interests will be adversely affected by the oil shortage and accompanying changes.
The meeting was conducted by State Rep. Bill Hilty, DFL-Finlayson, chairman of the Minnesota House Energy Policy and Budget Division. Similar presentations were made in St. Paul-Minneapolis and Duluth.
(24 January 2008)
Colorful account of the event appears on Daily Kos, written by Big E:
Peak oil event in Minneapolis. Daniel Lerch of Post Carbon Cities gets a good review and a recommendation to buy his new book. -BA
(18 January 2008)
PO activist in Saturdays’s WSJ
One of our informants writes:
Check out the 1/26 Wall Street Journal for a story about Peak Oil activity in Michigan
Neil King who normally covers International Oil, Energy and OPEC for the Wall Street Journal has a story that will come out in tomorrow’s Saturday edition that profiles a peak oil activist in Michigan who has energized his community.
UPDATE: The online version will have a video interview about peak oil.
UPDATE: Now posted online.
(25 January 2008)
