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ASPO Newsletter – Jan 08 (PDF)
Colin J. Campbell, ASPO-Ireland
897. In Memory of Ali Samsam Bakhtiari
898. ASPO AUSTRIA
899. Major Oil Companies pass peak
990. Living through the Energy Crisis
991. Marketing Peak Denial
992. Comments on an article in the Sunday Times of December 16th 2007
993. Reporting More
994. Brasil Analysis Updated
995. Zero-Sum Future
996. New US policy to cut oil consumption
997. Financial Times comments on the US Situation
998. The Pope addresses the Energy Issue
999. Data for 2007
(2 January 2008)
2007 – The Year in Review
Luís de Sousa, The Oil Drum: Europe
This is a collection of posts that reflects the most important events of 2007, from an energy perspective, or that otherwise were relevant on Theoildrum.com.
The year started with low oil prices easing somewhat the fears of an energy crisis. With the dollar rallying, WTI would eventually sink below $50 per barrel. But world oil production wasn’t growing and the performance of some producing regions were showing concerning signs. Mexico was clearly suffering from Cantarell’s decline, the Caucasus kept raising question marks (a situation later updated here) and there was also Saudi Arabia.
… 2008 is presenting itself as a very uncertain year. Both energy scarcity and the credit crunch are menacing to spread to other sectors of the Economy, affecting it in opposite ways. Will 2008 be the year that Oil crossed sustainably above 100 $/barrel? Or the year oil prices dived due to a worldwide recession? That’s the question to answer. Factoring in the dollar’s secular downward trend, forecasting oil prices or price ranges seems more difficult than ever (as I write this lines, both Tapis and Lousiana Sweet have been intermitently crossing 100 $/barrel amidst another dollar dive) Besides all this, Natural Gas could have some bad surprises reserved for 2008.
TOD’s audience grew visibly in 2007. The year started off with 230 K visits in January, but topped 400 K already in March in consequence of the Saudi roll. It took some time to repeat that number but monthly visits kept above 350 K from then on. Thanks to high oil prices and a steady stream of top quality articles and news reporting, TOD topped 500 K visits both in October and November. The satellite sites grew even faster during this period, also reflecting a growing and enhancing community.
(31 December 2007)
My Top 10 Energy Stories of 2007
Robert Rapier, The Oil Drum
… 1. Oil price soars as media becomes Peak Oil aware
… 2. Criticism of biofuels mounts
… 3. The Chevy Volt is announced
… 4. Nanosolar begins to deliver
… 5. LS9 starts up
… 6. Range Fuels breaks ground
… 7. First application for US nuclear plant in 30 years
… 8. Carbon capture & sequestration moves forward
… 9. Progress on next generation biofuels
… 10. US Navy funds Bussard Fusion
(28 December 2007)
Draft of “Net Oil Export” paper – comments?
Jeffrey Brown (westexas), The Oil Drum
I’ve had the written portion of our Net Oil Export paper about 90% done for weeks. I’m trying to get it finished today. Following is the draft of the summary, including my favorite Peak Oil Tranquilizer, Alan Drake (Alan, which link do you want to use for your article?). Alan may be wrong, but at least he gives us something to hope for.
Any comments?
Summary
Our simple mathematical model and recent case histories have shown that once oil production in an oil exporting country starts declining, the resulting decline in net oil exports can be quite rapid, tending to show an accelerating net export decline rate.
We have used some additional mathematical models to forecast future production and consumption for key oil exporting countries.
Our middle case forecast is that the top five net oil exporting countries, accounting for about half of current world net oil exports, will approach zero net oil exports around 2031-going from peak net exports to zero in about 26 years, versus seven years and eight years respectively for the UK and Indonesia. In our opinion, the only real difference between the top five and the UK and Indonesia is that the top five net exporters in 2005 had a lower rate of consumption relative to production.
Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average net export decline of about one mbpd in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame.
Smaller oil exporters like Angola can and will increase their net exports, but smaller exporters, just like smaller oil fields, tend to have sharper production peaks and more rapid net export declines than do the larger net exporters. And offsetting many of the gains by smaller exporters will be sharp declines in net exports from countries like Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports not too long after 2010.
In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy-net oil export capacity-is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the Unite States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program, electric light rail and streetcars, combined with a crash windpower program.
As consulting engineer Alan Drake has documented (insert link), the US electrified local transportation around the turn of the 19th to 20th Centuries. Following is a postcard, circa 2008, of an electric streetcar in a small West Central Texas town, San Angelo, Texas.
If we did it in 1908, why can’t we do it in 2008?
(1 January 2008)
A work in progress from the indefatigable Jeffrey Brown. You can leave comments at The Oil Drum. -BA
