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Global oil output ‘will start to decline by 2015’
Trade Arabia
Global oil liquids output will hit a plateau in the next five to 10 years and then permanently decline, whilst global gas production will keep on rising through to 2020 and beyond, an international oil expert says.
Even with high oil prices, offshore exploratory drilling in South East Asia, where the majority of exploration expenditure is directed, is not increasing substantially, according Michael R Smith, head of the global oil and gas forecasting company Energyfiles.
Deep water oil drilling is only growing modestly compared to several other parts of the world and shallow water oil drilling is projected to begin to decline as good prospects are exhausted.
(30 Oct 2006)
An April 2006 presentation by Michael Smith to Modeling the Oil Transition: A DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental is available: Resource Depletion: Modeling and Forecasting Oil Production (PowerPoint, 883 KB) Implications of Global Energy Transitions. The same conference included peak oil related presentations from Robert Hirsch and Roger Bentley.
TOD: Peak Oil Aware NY Governor?
peakguy, The Oil Drum: NYC
Eliott Spitzer’s campaign is now pretty much running victory laps around the state with polls showing he will be sweeping into New York’s powerful governor’s chair with a huge mandate for change. I’ve written before about Spitzer’s views on energy, transportation and the environment as well as his favoring closure of the Indian Point Nuclear plant. What hasn’t been talked about in the press much is that Spitzer’s running mate, David Patterson has talked openly about peak oil in a speech delivered in May that mentions a certain Shell geologist…
…That is some of the most knowledgeable talk about oil production (including talking about our own peak production in the US) and EROEI of oil extraction that I have heard from any politician. So Patterson and therefore Spitzer know that there will be a peak to oil production eventually. It’s not a matter of it, but when…
… So what’s their plan once they take office?
The Spitzer administration’s policy on energy can be summed up in four words: conserve today, renew tomorrow.
We have got to stop throwing good energy after bad. We will use conservation for immediate results, and we’ll hope that we can find alternative sources of energy for long-term and future positive results. These are not new ideas. They’re not dramatic. They don’t even cost that much, but they are effective.
And the most effective and immediate way to establish some kind of impact on our environment is through conservation. Conservation doesn’t mean privatization. It doesn’t mean austerity. It just means doing more with less, not just doing with less.
(1 Nov 2006)
The energy speech to which peakguy refers is online: David A. Paterson on May 30, 2006.
ASPO-USA: support for Global Energy Flow modelling and a Net Energy database
Euan Mearns (aka Cry Wolf), The Oil Drum: UK
One of the breakout session working groups at the ASPO-USA conference focused on the need to have greater understanding of all Energy Flows within and between countries on a Global scale and to have greater understanding of Net Energy within all energy production systems.
…To quote Professor Cleveland “The economic, environmental, social and geopolitical significance of the concepts and implications of Net Energy have never been greater. Yet there is great confusion about every aspect of the concept, and more bad “information” than good. As a result, the impact of Net Energy issues on personal decisions and policy making is nil.”
Reliable understanding of Net Energy is in my opinion, fundamentally important to the future prosperity of the Global economy as we become increasingly dependent upon non-fossil fuel energy sources. Consider this, if an energy delivery system has an ERoEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) close to 1, then our economy will spend all its energy on energy production – not leaving any surplus energy for food production, manufacturing, construction, transportation etc. If the ERoEI is close to 2, then energy delivery systems will spend 50% of their working lives repaying the energy used in their construction and so on.
TOD contributor Nate Hagens has outlined these principles in relation to a theoretical community. Maximising ERoEI within our energy production systems will maximise the Net Energy available for society to consume. Our future prosperity, therefore, is inextricably linked to investing in the most energy efficient energy production systems – and this can only happen if the ERoEI of different energy production systems is understood for a range of operating conditions.
(1 Nov 2006)
The Oil Crisis Started 30 Years Ago
Peter Goodchild, Counter Currents
It is customary to look for the critical year of oil production in absolute terms, but in the year 1970 or thereabouts there was another important “conjunction,” to use an astrological metaphor. Global production will peak at some point in the early 21st century; it may have already done so, although the mendacious accounts of remaining reserves make exact dates impossible to determine precisely. Nevertheless, in many senses it is not 2005 or 2010 that is the critical date, but rather the early 1970s.
…Hubbert could see that the peak of American oil production would be about 1970; after that, there would be a permanent decline. When he announced this, most people laughed at him. But he was right: after 1970, U.S. oil never recovered.
For thirty years, therefore, the U.S. trade deficit has been heavily effected by dependence on foreign oil. Thomas D. Kraemer, in his report for the U.S. Army, states that “fully one-quarter of the U.S. trade deficit is associated with oil imports.”
(30 Oct 2006)
Good article in which Peter looks at the 1970s as the begining of increasing income disparity, globalization and wage arbitrage, and international currency speculation. -AF
Whatever happened to Peak Oil?
David Ingham, Oil & Gas Journal via ITP Business
Just one year ago, we were all beginning to think that the end of oil was fast approaching. According to a growing chorus of industry watchers, we either had or were about to reach something called ‘Peak Oil’, the point at which the amount of oil left in the ground is less than the amount that humankind has already extracted.
In other words, over half the oil that history left in the ground for us has been, or was about to be, consumed. Renewable energy was the phrase of the day and even the big oil majors were talking about a future after oil.
(1 Nov 2006)
Has peak oil really dropped off the agenda that much? From my perspective it doesn’t seem so. In the meantime conventional or regular oil looks increasingly likely to have already peaked in December 2005. Matthew Simmons suggests that we’ll know with more certainty if we “have another six to ten months of that decline lasting”. Ingham talks about Saudi and Kuwaiti promises to increase oil production to argue that peak oil will be delayed (both promises are of course questionable), and mentions increasing investments in natural gas and tar sands.
-AF
