Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
The Specter of Recession
Dave Cohen, The Oil Drum
Recession fears are being reported as affecting the oil markets. .. Before recently, all the fears were geopolitical in nature. Easing of those concerns—for no good reason at all—has been replaced by the specter of an American recession. Let’s examine that possibility. As it turns out, the view here is that a recession—perhaps a severe one—may be more likely than not.
I shall argue from three separate lines of evidence indicating the possibility of a recession. Any one of them, by itself, might not be considered by some as sufficient reason for alarm. However, all three factors are strong signals and, taken together, paint a worrisome picture. Here they are.
* The Negative Yield Curve
* The Housing Bubble
* The Oil Price Shocks Model
Each is discussed in order below. In the final section, I shall indicate why those of us concerned about Peak Oil should care.
(4 Oct 2006)
Oil Analysts Raise 2007 Forecasts as Demand May Outpace Supply
Mark Shenk, Bloomberg
Oil analysts are raising their price estimates for next year in anticipation of increased demand that may outpace the development of new deposits.
Crude oil will average $64 a barrel in New York in 2007, according to the median forecast of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last week. That’s $2 higher than predicted at the end of the second quarter. Analysts failed to predict the rise in oil throughout a five-year rally during which prices tripled.
“We see a very tight market continuing into next year,” said Kevin Norrish, a director of commodities research for Barclays Capital in London. Barclays expects oil next year to average $76.70 a barrel, the highest forecast in the survey.
(3 Oct 2006)
That Falling Feeling
Leonardo Maugeri, Newsweek
As the myth of endless Chinese demand is exposed and heavy investment boosts supply, prices at the pump could plummet further.
—
Understanding the oil market is difficult. Making reasonable forecasts is almost impossible. That’s why most analysts were surprised by the dip in prices from the Aug. 8 historic high of $79 per barrel to below $60 in recent days.
Suddenly the alarmists who foresaw an imminent era of oil scarcity are silent, OPEC is again discussing supply cuts, oil share prices are down. And new conspiracy theories are flowing, like the one about the Republicans’ pushing down gas prices before the U.S. midterm elections.
(9 Oct 2006 edition)
Maugeri is senior vice president of strategies and development at Eni SpA and author of the book “The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World’s Most Controversial Resource.” Maugeri asserts oil price rises have been purely speculatively driven, and ignores the depletion argument altogether, except to dismiss it in one line. -AF
