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ASPO 5 – The Two Distinct Paradigms within the Peak Oil Movement
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
This was my first ASPO conference, and I had a fantastic time. For those of you who are thinking ‘ASwhat?’, ASPO is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (but not called ASPOG, not so snappy I guess), set up by Colin Campbell to bring together the many brains focusing on oil depletion around the world.
There are now 20 ASPO branches around the world, and each year one of them undertakes to host this conference. Last year it was in Lisbon, next year it will be in Ireland, but this year it was in Pisa, Italy. ASPO Italia were the perfect hosts, and the conference brought together speakers from around the world to explore in detail many diverse aspects of the peak oil challenge.
The talks ranged from the inspirational to the incomprehensible, and from the visionary to the profoundly deluded. ASPO is a broad church, so as well as those modelling the peak there was some strong pro-nuclear speakers, some advocating a return to coal and the exploitation of the tar sands, to those advocating relocalisation (well, that was just me and Richard Heinberg actually) and renewables. I was struck deeply by the two distinct paradigms visible within the attendees, which I have to say, in my naivity, I was rather shocked by.
The first paradigm we might call the ‘Business-as-Usual-at-all-costs’ paradigm. This argues that peak oil is simply a problem of energy supply, and that provided we can resolve that, everything will be fine. The second paradigm we might call the ‘Cultural Evolution’ paradigm’, which argues that we cannot solve the problems peak oil presents with the same thinking that got us into the mess in the first place. I’d say that at ASPO 5, the balance was about 5:1 in favour of the former.
(14 Aug 2006)
Saudi oil production revisited
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
About this time last year, I wrote the following into what is now the Classic section of TOD. Given the nature of the current discussion, I hope you don’t mind my bringing it back forward, since it appears informative to Prof G’s recent question. It relates to current and anticipated production from the oil fields of Saudi Arabia. I have made some slight updates and will put those in parentheses, and marked with UPDATE.
(14 Aug 2006)
Well deserving of it’s classic status in the TOD archives. Worth checking out. -AF
Kuwait’s reserves queried again
AME Info
Kuwait’s parliament has again called for the government to reveal how much oil the country has in its reserves, reported the Kuwait Times. Speculation has continued for months that the country has 48bn barrels of oil in reserve, about half of the official figure of 99bn. Kuwait’s new Energy Minister, Sheikh Ali Al Jarrah Al Sabah, who was appointed in July, has said that he will clarify the situation shortly.
(13 Aug 2006)
Oil price spike to end, you can bet on it
Paul Higgins, The Age
AT RECENT conferences on the future of biofuels, I have offered a $10 bet to anyone in the room that the West Texas intermediate oil price will be less than US$40 a barrel within three years. So far only three people have taken up the bet.
My view that the oil price will fall to this level by 2009 may seem ridiculous given the hysteria in the media on rising oil and petrol prices. Some commentators regard ongoing rises in oil prices as a fait accompli. However, a logical analysis of the forces driving oil prices creates an extremely plausible scenario in which oil prices will fall significantly.
…There is no reason to believe that the oil consumption reduction the world achieved in the late 1970s and early 1980s cannot be repeated. In fact, there is every reason to believe that the reduction in oil consumption can be much better for two reasons. First, we have access to better motor vehicle technologies, such as the Saab BioPower that runs on up to 85 per cent ethanol.
Second, we have significant development of biofuels occurring to replace fossil fuels.
[EB: so far, so good. But look how Higgens concludes his column!]
…The only caveat to my scenario is if we have reached peak oil production — the point where we can no longer increase the amount of oil that is produced annually.
A range of views place peak oil production somewhere between 2005-2036. Once we reach peak oil, then there will be a crunch in oil supply and price that makes current pricing look like a picnic, and my money is already on the table.
Paul Higgins is a futurist with Emergent Futures. He and his partners are writing a book on Australia’s oil future.
(15 Aug 2006)
Pipeline cowboys: rustling for oil
Chris Richards (ed), New Internationalist
The Feral Metallurgist (CS) pointed out a treasure chest of articles in a 2003 issue. All the following articles are online:
Pipelines to power
Oil pipelines are supposed to bring power to the people, but Chris Richards finds conflict and corruption littering their length.
Pipedreams
The facts and fictions behind the PR hype used to build Africa’s Chad-Cameroon pipeline.
Once upon a pipeline…
James Marriott and Greg Muttitt tell tales of how public funds used for private projects will rob the people of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia.
Moths to the flame
In Colombia’s civil war, the Caño Limón-Coveñas pipeline keeps both the Government and guerrillas in arms. Pick the true terrorist with Jason Hagen.
Paying the pipers – THE FACTS
Who’s got oil, who wants it and who profits from it.
The blessed curse
Asia’s richest country is trying to take oil and gas away from Asia’s poorest country. Quinton Temby uncovers some devious diplomacy.
And the oil runneth over
A gallery of spills, explosions and flares from around the world.
Running on empty
Oil’s running out. Adam Porter surveys the consequences.
Kicking the oil-habit
Alternative approaches to oil consumption and transportation.
True gold of our future
Costa Rica has banned oil exploration. Mark Engler and Nadia Martinez find out how.
(Oct 2003)
The New Internationalist seems to have been ahead of its time. Their June 2001 issue was devoted to “The End of Oil.” Multiple articles are online, including one by Jeremy Leggett: A ‘blue skies’ romance (“Jeremy Leggett tells us about his background as a petroleum geologist – and why he decided to bail out.” -BA
