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Is Relocalization Doomed?: A Response to Staniford’s “Fallacy of Reversibility”
Sharon Astyk, The Oil Drum
Stuart Staniford’s latest opus has taken a shot across the bow at those who advocate Relocalization and the de-industrialization. Embedded in his argument is a compelling critique of the prospects of certain parts of the Relocalization analysis. Staniford shows his customary brilliance in analyzing the ways that the biofuels movement is likely to overcome impetus towards Relocalization.
But that profound analysis is embedded in a paper that contains me serious errors of reasoning and misrepresentations of the Relocalization movement that I think deserve critique. And his final conclusion, that this should put an end to all hopes of Relocalization deserves some further consideration.
Is it true that peak oil as Staniford put in another post “puts paid” to the notion of Relocalization and local agriculture? Regardless of the answer, I think most of us should be grateful to Staniford for raising an important central issue – the way the biofuels response to peak oil raises agricultural prices and its effect on land prices. But let’s ask some questions about some of the other content Staniford ties his argument to.
Guest post by Sharon Astyk, a very small farmer whom the biofuels companies have yet to offer to buy out, and a writer with two forthcoming books about peak oil and climate change, one (Depletion and Abundance, Fall ’08, New Society Publishers) about appropriate responses for families, and the other (A Nation of Farmers, Spring ’09, same publisher) about food and agriculture. Her writings can be found at casaubonsbook.blogspot.com .
(23 January 2008)
Mexico’s crude oil production fell 5.3 percent in 2007, year-end figures show
AP
Mexico’s crude oil production fell by 5.3 percent in 2007 as compared to the previous year. . .
. . . Though export volumes declined, total export revenues grew by 9.3 percent to around US$38 billion in 2007–the highest level in Mexico’s history–largely because of a rise in prices. The average price for the market-basket of Mexican crude rose by US$8.62 to US$61.66 in 2007.
Crude export volume ran at about 1.69 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2000. December exports slipped to 1.5 million barrels a day, down from 1.9 million barrels daily in November.
Domestic gasoline sales rose by 5.9 percent, the company said, and natural gas production reached 6.058 billion cubic feet per day.
(21 January 2008)
Jeffrey Brown (westexas) writes:
IMO, the ongoing decline in net oil exports is vastly more important than the ongoing financial turmoil.
Consider the captioned article about Mexico, which has been previously reported, but look at what is happening to production, exports, cash flow from export sales and consumption (note that the AP article is talking about gross, not net exports):
Production: Down
Exports: Down
Cash Flow From Export Sales: Up
Domestic Consumption: Up
I estimate that total liquids net exports fell at about -15%/year. Mexico is in the “red zone,” with consumption close to 50% of production at peak production–the same range of consumption that caused UK and Indonesian net oil exports to crash to zero in seven and eight years respectively. I expect Mexican net exports to approach zero by 2014.
For more information on our net oil export work, see A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters at EB.
$100 A Barrel Oil – My Predictions Revisited
David Houle, Scientific Blogging
The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3. During the days since I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year
… As a futurist, it is my job to look into the future and try to discern what might happen in the months, years and decades ahead. I look at patterns and large dynamics that translate into macro trends that then translate into specific developments.
It is an odd sensation, but whenever any of what I have predicted becomes reality, it feels as though I have already experienced it. When oil crossed the $100 price barrier these past few days, it was as though I had already experienced that. My reaction? Of course it went over $100 a barrel, what’s the big deal?
The long term trend in oil and gas prices is ever upward. I do think that the trading range for oil for the next year at least will be $80-120. There are few if any situations I can see where the price could fall below $80. However there are some situations that could take the price up over $120.
…As I will discuss in my annual predictions next week, 2008 will be the year when the concept of peak oil will move into the larger awareness of the public. A great number of scientists and energy experts believe, as do I, that the world is now passing through peak oil. When the understanding of this probability sinks in it will trigger some oil producing companies to start to manage sales for the long term. This could well drive up the price as production will be limited as these countries look for long term revenues.
Of course the great news in the rise in the price of oil is that incredible amounts of investment capital are now flowing into the alternative, renewable energy field.
David Houle is a future thinker, speaker and strategist
(22 January 2008)
Is peak oil good news or bad for hydro and seismic operators?
Dave Strahan, Engineer Live!
…But if all that [about peak oil] sounds unremittingly bleak, ironically depletion could be good for hydrographic and seismic business. Oil companies may soon start to abandon exploration altogether, but as the supply situation worsens, there will be an even greater emphasis on reserves growth. Squeezing the maximum from known reservoirs will require all the industry’s technical nous, including more use of sophisticated techniques such as 4D seismic. And as the industry is forced to exploit ever smaller – though more numerous – fields, it may mean more hydrographic and seismic work not less.
Another apparent threat to the oil industry could prove even better news for the sector: climate change. According to a recent paper by climate scientist Jim Hansen of NASA, to have any chance of keeping atmospheric carbon dioxide below 450ppm – the assumed threshold for ‘dangerous’ global warming – all coal fired power stations will soon have to be fitted with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). If this happens, the natural place to store the CO2 is depleted oil and gas fields, but since we cannot be certain it will stay down there, long term monitoring will be essential. Again, more business for companies that provide reservoir measurement and modeling services.
But if the world keeps burning coal, and if CCS is to play a significant part in fighting climate change, the world’s depleted oil and gas reservoirs just aren’t big enough to house all the emissions. Finding extra capacity would mean exploring the world’s saline aquifers, providing yet another massive opportunity for hydrographic and seismic operators. So it looks as if this magazine does have a future after all.
David Strahan is the author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man, (John Murray, 2007)
(22 January 2008)
The end of cheap oil: Are you ready?
Charles L. Taylor, Supply Chain Quarterly via DC Velocity
Supply chain managers must take action today to prepare for the end of the Oil Age tomorrow
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The recent run-up in oil prices has put logistics and supply chain managers on notice that they can no longer depend on abundant supplies of cheap fossil fuels. In this article, which first appeared in the Quarter 2/2007 edition of CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, author Chuck Taylor argues that world oil production will soon peak, and that supply chain managers must take action today to prepare for the end of the era of cheap oil. Since the story was first published (June 2007), oil prices have shot up from $75 per barrel to nearly $100 at press time.
[Fairly comprehensive description of peak oil.]
…Although it may take a crisis to prompt the government to action, supply chain managers should be proactive and start preparing for the end of cheap oil right now. Yes, there are many examples of smart companies that already are working to reduce energy and transportation costs. That is just good business. However, companies will have radical adjustments to make when they come to the realization that cheap oil is gone forever, that substitutions may take years to implement, and that shortages and economic pain lie immediately ahead. It’s best to be prepared. What will happen to your company if oil goes to $100 a barrel? Or $200? Or if you can’t get a supply of petroleum at any price?
Take a fresh look at everything and apply fact-based analysis and smart software tools to develop “what if” scenarios. Ask yourself what will be the impact on the supply chain when sales and pricing policies, service levels, order quantities, packaging, the number of stock-keeping units (SKUs), and inventory strategies all have to change in a world without cheap oil? What about networks, modal selection, plant and distribution center (DC) operations, and sourcing strategies?
In a high-cost energy environment, the keys to success will be to rethink, reduce, recycle, reuse, and reward innovation. Conservation and eliminating waste in the system offer our best chance to minimize the early impacts of the next oil crisis. Fortunately, there is a proven system for doing just that.
At the end of World War II, Japan was devastated. It was a time of shortage and necessity. In 1950, Toyota managers visited Ford’s River Rouge plant and took to heart what Henry Ford said: “If it doesn’t add value, it is waste.”
… Lean principles are based on common sense: Reduce and eliminate waste through continuous process improvement while always considering human and social relationships.
(22 January 2008)
