Recorded on: Feb 26, 2026
Description
As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we’ve simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power?
In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world.
What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)
About Craig Tindale
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.
He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.
About Michael Every
Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis.
Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
The TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.
00:00 –
- Michael Every: Reality Roundtable 16, Reality Roundtable 12, TGS Ep 118, LinkedIn, X
- Craig Tindale: TGS Ep 207, Substack, LinkedIn
03:30 – ***The war in Iran has started as of Saturday, February 28th, 2026
04:00 – Various headlines: Talks of agreement with Iran vs Concerns about market disruption
04:45 – Critical materials/minerals and rare earth metals’ importance to the global economy
04:50 – Price of silver since December 10th, 2025 (date of Craig’s previous TGS recording)
05:15 – Analysis of raw materials vs. capacity to refine them
05:50 – Unrestricted Warfare by Wang Xiangsui and Qiao Liang
06:10 – Allies, World War I, World War II
06:30 – Percentage of critical materials produced in China, Percentage refined in China
06:40 – Chinese-financed mines outside of China
07:00 – Glencore canceled Canadian copper refinery project due to ESG cost, Recent project cancellation in Australia
08:10 – Craig’s “golden screw” Substack
08:30 – Tellurium, Gallium, Scandium
08:50 – DOE $355 million towards recovery of minerals from coal waste
09:00 – Mine tailings contain recoverable minerals
09:15 – Gallium is strategically important for defense systems
09:30 – Metabolism in industrial systems, Human built material outweighs all natural material, “The cloud” is physical
09:50 – Supply chains for grid components are critical for electrification and data centers
10:35 – Statecraft
11:30 – What GDP measures
11:40 – Rise of neoliberal globalization in Western economies since the 1980s (prioritizing market liberalization, globalization, and deregulation)
11:50 – How China uses state-led industrial policy rather than purely free-market approaches
12:00 – Control over key supply chain “choke points” provides strategic economic and geopolitical leverage
12:50 – Coordinated reform is hard due to “sacred cows” and compartmentized institutions
13:40 – Recent U.S. legislation (eg. CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act) marks a shift toward more active industrial policy
14:10 – Technology/money alone cannot overcome material and energy constraints
14:20 – People may revert to denial when implications threaten identity/interests, Cognitive dissonance
14:45 – ESG, ESG and permitting constrains Western industry
15:20 – Central banks focus on single policy rates, Proposals for sector-differentiated credit/targeted rates
15:30 – Credit guidance/directed credit has historical precedent; outcomes mixed
15:45 – Private capital seeks high returns
16:00 – Military success depends on economic mobilization/surge, not only profitability
16:45 – Frankly #127: Wide Boundary News 2/23/26 (3 pricing models)
17:15 – Fuel taxes in Europe, The Economics of Exhaustible Resources by Harold Hotelling
18:00 – Pricing is lagging indicator
18:40 – Hyperfocus on consumption inflation (rather than deindustrialization)
19:00 – Lobbying, How lobbying shapes policy priorities, Registered lobbyists for the Federal Reserve
19:35 – AI privacy concerns
20:45 – Complex societies need horizontal integration (less siloing) to see system-wide tradeoffs
21:30 – Importance of natural systems for economy
24:20 – Upton Sinclair quote (source)
25:10 – Planck’s principle: “Progress in science comes one funeral at a time”
25:40 – Over-specialization within the U.S. educational system
26:20 – Financial claims decoupling from biophysical reality
27:30 – Trump’s focus on reindustrializing
28:30 – Zero-sum game
29:05 – Europe struggles to cohesively across 27 countries with divergent interests
30:05 – Critical rare earths that the U.S. needs for microchips and jet engines are in short supply
31:05 – U.S. is increasing state-ownership of firms in the U.S., Golden shares,Trump’s 2025 “golden share” deal with U.S. Steel, Trump’s 2026 “golden share” agreements with L3Harris Technologies and ATALCO, Price controls, U.S. price controls on critical minerals, Changing U.S. tariffs
31:30 – U.S. is leveraging oil supply routes/chokepoints in Venezuela and Iran, Importance of this oil/route to China’s economy
32:10 – U.S. oil (in)dependence versus China oil (in)dependence
32:30 – Chinese finger traps
33:05 – U.S. involvement in regime change in Vietnam and Iraq (History of the DBACHILLES Operation in Iraq, 1996 Iraqi coup attempt, 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq)
34:00 – Ultra-high-purity quartz from Spruce Pine in North Carolina is a critical semiconductor chokepoint
34:25 – Canada’s response to Trump and move towards China deals, Canada’s deal for 49,000* Chinese EVs, Canada gaining market access for $4* billion grain exports to China
36:15 – Russia/Ukraine war, Europe’s involvement, Greenland purchasing talks
37:35 – Mark Carney (Canada PM) speech at Davos, The Power of the Powerless by Václav Havel
38:35 – Realpolitik
40:25 – Raw materials/metals used in creation of defense products
40:48 – India was the top arms importer globally in 2024, India’s domestic defense industry reformations and challenges
45:50 – Porcupine strategy, Taiwan’s porcupine strategy
46:50 – U.S. versus China electrification
47:15 – Reduced sulfur emissions, Multiple planetary boundaries exceeded
48:00 – Five stages of grief
48:15 – Regenerative agriculture
49:00 – James Hansen on inaccuracies of climate models
51:25 – Gestalt
53:15 – Economic shocks sometimes correlate with more extreme policy/voting
53:45 – AI/data centers are major drivers of critical materials demand
54:05 – Secretary Hegseth pressures Anthropic to allow for U.S. military use of Claude
54:20 – U.S. Department of War’s plan to use and invest in AI
57:20 – Projected copper supply will not meet demand required for the “energy transition”
58:50 – Godley and Minsky models are based on Marx (More info)
1:01:40 – Mustafa Suleyman (Microsoft AI chief) “80% of white collar jobs might be gone in the next 18 months
1:02:30 – AI companies are generating little revenue
1:05:00 – Aging populations increase long-term care needs, Elder care worker shortages and high turnover
1:11:20 – Circular economy, Recovery of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Materials from Coal and Coal Byproducts
1:14:10 – Trump lowering gas prices and inflation vs. Bernie Sanders petitioning to not build data centers due to electricity bill prices going up for the everyday citizen
1:14:30 – AI data centers in Sydney will use ~*12% of its electricity and ~*25% of its water by 2035
1:15:30 – New York State Senate Bill: Data center permit moratorium, Overall community backlash in the U.S.
1:18:15 – “Tech bro”
1:18:35 – Dune; The Butlerian Jihad
1:22:10 – AI hallucinations
1:26:00 – Dangers of AI and screens in education
1:27:40 – Zak Stein (TGS #180, TGS #122, Reality Roundtable #20)
1:30:30 – Long ago philosophers who talked of consciousness as vibration and quantum physics
1:32:10 – Lost television show
