(Conversation recorded on May 5th, 2024)
Show Summary
In this episode, Nate welcomes back Daniel Schmachtenberger to unpack a new paper, which he co-authored, entitled Development in Progress, an analysis on the history of progress and the consequences of ‘advancement’.
Current mainstream narratives sell the story that progress is synonymous with betterment, and that the world becomes better for everyone as GDP and economies continue to grow. Yet, this is an incomplete portrayal that leaves out the dark sides of advancement. What are the implications when only the victors of history write the narratives of progress and define societal values? What are the value systems embedded in our institutions and policies, and how do they reinforce the need for ongoing growth at the expense of the natural world and human well-being? Finally, how do we change these dynamics to form a new, holistic definition of progress that accounts for the connectedness of our planet to the health of our minds, bodies, and communities?
The full paper discussed in this episode will be available on The Consilience Project website in the near future.
About Daniel Schmachtenberger
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.
The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.
Towards these ends, he’s had a particular interest in catastrophic and existential risk, with focuses on civilization collapse and institutional decay. His work also includes an analysis of progress narratives, collective action problems, and social organization theories. These themes are all connected through close study of the relevant domains in philosophy and science.
Watch on YouTube
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
00:00 – Daniel Schmachtenberger info + Bend Not Break series + Episode on Artificial Intelligence
08:08 – Screen time associated with depression in teens
09:02 – Supply chain of an iPhone
09:15 – Silent Spring, Rachel Carson
09:15 – Leaded gasoline, DDT
10:12 – War, disease, and addiction are good for GDP
12:28 – Hobbes State of Nature
14:25 – Carbon pulse
16:10 – Ghengis Khan killed *40 million people – 11% of the global population at the time, and 10% of the old Mongol territory estimated to be his descendents
16:52 – Attila the Hun, Alexander the Great, Ivan the Terrible, Julius Caesar
17:23 – Beginning of civilization
18:01 – High infant mortality, but actual average age in ancient history
18:22 – Dunbar numbers
21:13 – Iroquois confederacy, designs of constraints
21:38 – Pacific NW tribes embedded rules of constraint (fishing)
21:40 – Jevons Paradox
22:16 – Sabbath
22:59 – Potlatch
24:01 – Maximum Power Principle
27:56 – Fast food and convenience food are highly addicting with way less micronutrients
28:28 – First climate change paper written in 1938, UNEP
28:54 – There is a trillion U.S. dollars of climate finance per year
30:20 – Adding non-carbon energy sources are not reducing fossil energy use
32:01 – Manifest Destiny
34:50 – Multipolar trap
41:10 – Humans and neanderthals
43:55 – Co-evolution, predator and prey
45:52 – Symmetry of power in competition
49:06 – Decline of oxygen in the atmosphere and the oceans
53:01 – 3M PFAS remediation settlement of 10.3 billion dollars
53:17 – PFAS is everywhere and affecting the health of everything, and doesn’t breakdown
53:51 – One state budget for PFAS remediation was estimated to cost 50 million dollars
54:09 – *17 trillion US dollars per year is estimated to complete global PFAS remediation
54:45 – Companies knew PFAS were toxic, as well as leaded gasoline
58:28 – Dark Triad
59:24 – Narcissism, Sociopathy, Machiavelliansim
1:00:27 – 14th amendment, loophole to give personhood rights to corporations,
1:03:05 – Shareholder value
1:05:24 – Jaron Lanier
1:07:28 – Red Teaming
1:11:04 – Jeremy Grantham, TGS Episode
1:13:25 – Increase in rates of cancer, mapped over rates of carcinogenic chemicals in the atmosphere
1:14:43 – Haber Bosch
1:15:13 – Carcinogens in breast milk
1:22:35 – Kissinger and Buffet
1:23:54 – Gaussian Distribution
1:25:22 – Top 8 wealthiest people have as much money as bottom 4 billion
1:28:50 – Shareholder value and the supreme court
1:30:02 – Nate’s Frankly on Dark Triad
1:31:22 – Jainism
1:35:42 – Nuremberg Trials, how many Nazis believed what they were doing was good
1:37:14 – Asch conformity studies, Milgram Studies, smoke door study
1:50:46 – 50 million people enslaved
1:44:54 – Creative Destruction
1:44:56 – The Art of Maintenance
1:47:41 – ACEs
1:47:58 – Response to trauma is very variable
1:58:23 – Descartes
2:01:40 – Many cultures didn’t divide the objective and the subjective
2:02:28 – Von Neumann on Game Theory
2:04:56 – Iain Mcghilchrist, TGS Episode, Master and his Emissary
2:06:33 – Clockwork Orange
2:07:30 – War is a Racket
2:15:15 – Animal plows and incompatibility with animism
2:22:10 – How to mislead with facts
2:23:35 – Population growth, energy per capita growth
2:25:44 – Human population/species extinctions, Ocean dead zones, micronutrient deficiency
2:27:32 – Most plagues are zoonotic
2:28:35 – Weston A. Price, grains and cavities
2:32:40 – Food and Drug industries
2:35:15 – Permaculture approach to agriculture
2;45:23 – Vanessa Andreotti + TGS
2:46:25 – Bohm, Einstein, Krishnamurti
2:48:21 – English is 70% nouns
2:57:36 – Erich Fromm
3:01:59 – Moore’s Law, AI
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This is over three hours long. Schmachtenberger always has a lot to say; I've watched other interviews and they're always very long. I've only watched the first two hours of this one. But I'm moved to comment before this slips "under the fold"; despite the length, Schmachtenberger is always worth listening to. I think he must be one of the smartest people in the world. But then–in this interview he says the things I've been wanting to say to Nate Hagens. Do take the time, there's new stuff here. As well as thoughtfulness, integrity, honesty, and heart.
Wonderful futures! As usual! Nice work.
Man – this interview takes me back to my Social Sciences studies! What great big picture thinking. I'm going to have to listen to this one a few times to really digest it. Although I disagree on the renewables front – there is so much more to his thinking that makes this so worthwhile. Something in the way he expressed the co-evolution of the predator and prey cycle had me remembering the very end of "The Time Machine" book where the traveller shoots millions of years into the future – well after the bulk of the story – and the 2 species of humanity have evolved into the Eloi being like a butterfly like thing flapping away into the air to escape the crab-like Morlock snapping at them.
But back to the renewables.
Sure – 2023 energy statistics are in. Despite record renewables deployment, the reports STILL show an increase in fossil fuel use. If these were the only 2 facts I was aware of regarding the Energy Transition, despair might kick in. But let’s remember the context:-
CONTEXT:
* Only 17% of the world is ‘developed’. Many nations are trying to develop and grab whatever energy they can.
* Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up world gas prices, bringing some nations temporarily back to coal.
* A few decades of coal renewables were just a tiny fraction of new energy deployed.
* Now they are the cheapest energy the human race has ever had – they were 80% of all new energy. EG: In 2023 we built over twice as much new wind as coal, and over 7 times more solar
* Solar just shifted to a 3 year doubling curve! Exponential growth is sneaky -as nothing appears to be happening for the longest time – then suddenly it’s everywhere! Solar is about to hit prime time.
"If this growth rate continues, there will be more solar installed in 2031 than all other electricity generation technologies put together." https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2024/04/24/fastest-energy-change-article/
By 2030, annual solar build rates should be 2 to 3 times FASTER than the IPCC’s Paris goals! (Let alone wind.) https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/
The IEA predict peak emissions by 2030, as while we have been building a few new coal plants – oil DEMAND is about to peak, and there are many older coal plants about to retire.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/10/iea-energy-peak-fossil-fuel-demand-by-2030/
We do NOT have to replace the immense thermal value in oil coal and gas – as the other half of the Energy Transition is the fact that we are going to Electrify Everything to run directly on renewable electricity. This means we are no longer fighting the 2nd law of thermodynamics and throwing out about 60% of the energy we consume as waste heat. EG: An EV charging from rooftop solar USES about 80% of the energy as forward motion – but a gasoline car WASTES that amount of energy by burning the oil.
Bottom line: One firmed unit of wind and solar will replace over 2 units of fossil fuels. Renewables are racing exponentially towards our clean energy goals. But as we Electrify Everything – we’ll notice those goals moving back towards us! Anyone claiming we need wind and solar to match the thermal energy values of fossil fuels are “cooking the books” and are ignoring at least half of what the Energy Transition is all about! https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-energy-efficiency
SUMMARY: there are many other threats to the natural world and many other struggles to overcome in our quest for sustainability. Yet becoming a Collapsenik due to the Energy Transition having seemingly 'failed' does not respect the peer-reviewed engineering on the subject, nor the significant progress being made. According to the trends above, the renewables upwards curve should finally overtake the net fossil fuels in the system – and see fossil fuels experience their first net decline in the next decade. It's happening! There is hope! So let's keep the pressure on governments to reject oil subsidies etc.
BUT WHAT ABOUT TRUMP? I'm just explaining the global energy picture. If Trump gets in – well let's just say one nuclear war could ruin our whole day!
"Yet becoming a Collapsenik due to the Energy Transition having seemingly 'failed' does not respect the peer-reviewed engineering on the subject, nor the significant progress being made."
IEA says no: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023 . "How are we doing [with the energy transition]? Of the over 50 components tracked, in the 2023 edition 3 are evaluated as fully “On track” with the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario trajectory – solar PV, electric vehicles and lighting."
So… 3 of 50+ components of the transition on track… It's definitely a start, but is that what you'd call 'significant progress'?