- The multiple crises the planet faces have solutions, says data scientist and head of research at Our World in Data, Hannah Ritchie.
- How to implement them remains a larger question for podcast co-host Rachel Donald, who interviewed Ritchie about her new book, “Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet.”
- In this episode, Donald challenges Ritchie on assumptions presented in the book, such as the notion that renewable energy will be adopted by low- and middle-income nations simply because it is cheaper.
- Ritchie says she intended to write an “apolitical” book, declining to discuss policy, but it’s difficult to see how many of the proposals would work without addressing geopolitical roadblocks and challenges that have repeatedly stymied these solutions.
The head of research at online publication Our World in Data, Hannah Ritchie, joins the Mongabay Newscast to discuss her new “radically hopeful” read, Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. While containing a hopeful array of technological advancements and potential fixes to many environmental issues, Mongabay’s review of the book also finds that several challenges to the implementation of these solutions go unaddressed.
Ritchie claims many nations have “decoupled” consumption-based emissions from their economies, for instance, but this is not a consensus opinion among scientists, with some concluding there is “no evidence of the kind of decoupling needed for ecological sustainability.”
In this interview, co-host Rachel Donald probes this question and others.
Solutions to deforestation, climate change, biodiversity loss and many others do exist, but implementing them is far more complex and politically challenging than Ritchie’s book presents. She stresses wanting to write an “apolitical” book; however, to address the scale and scope of the environmental challenges the world faces, acknowledging those geopolitical roadblocks seems essential, Donald stresses.
In the book, Ritchie does not wade into that conversation, instead claiming that the affordability of renewables will lead to their widespread adoption, and the book decries alternative economic models (such as degrowth) as being a hindrance to solutions. The author also does not acknowledge or use the well-established planetary boundary framework, which helps the world understand key planetary thresholds inside of which humanity can safely operate. Scientists say we’ve already breached six of those nine boundaries.
Related reading from the planetary boundaries series:
Citations:
Ritchie, H. (2024). Not the end of the world: How we can be the first generation to build a sustainable planet. Little, Brown Spark.
Hubacek, K., Chen, X., Feng, K., Wiedmann, T., & Shan, Y. (2021). Evidence of decoupling consumption-based CO2 emissions from economic growth. Advances in Applied Energy, 4, 100074. doi:10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100074
Vadén, T., Lähde, V., Majava, A., Järvensivu, P., Toivanen, T., Hakala, E., & Eronen, J. (2020). Decoupling for ecological sustainability: A categorisation and review of research literature. Environmental Science & Policy, 112, 236-244. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2020.06.016s
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The largest energy source for the US electric grids is natural gas. Conventional NG peaked in USA in 1973 and has decreased two thirds since – only fracking has avoided energy rationing.
There are also finite issues around mineral ores, plus supposedly renewable resources that we use far faster than they regenerate – soil, fresh water, forests, food.
I’ve used solar PV since 1990, they’re nice but they’re not going to sustain the unsustainable. Sorry.
I honestly don’t know why so many people have swallowed this myth hook line and sinker?
FACT CHECK: The Energy Transition is NOT running out of minerals!
Have you ever played “The Substitution Game?” EG: “Can you make X without Y?” For example – “Can you make solar without tellurium?” Google it. Read. Check all the energy transition technologies for all the minerals you’ve heard are “essential.” EG:-
SOLAR PANELS: 95% of solar panel brands are normal crystalline cells that already avoid ANY rare-earths or Critical Minerals by using silicon – which is 27% of the Earth’s crust, and aluminium 8% and some silver or copper to send the electricity out. But even COPPER can be replaced by aluminium – 8% of the earth’s crust and 1200 TIMES more abundant than copper. (Aluminium is less conductive so you just use more.) What about the Gallium, Tellurium, Cadmium and Indium you’ve heard we NEED? Must be a thin-film brand screaming for their precious resources – because only 5% of solar panels are thin film. Nice – maybe essential for a few niche purposes – but civilisation will survive without them.
WIND TURBINES – are made from iron – 5% of the earth’s crust, aluminium, and fibreglass blades – that’s polyester resin and glass fibres. They’re recyclable now. Wind generators WITHOUT rare-earth magnets are now a thing:- http://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/07/28/15-mw-rare-earth-free-offshore-wind-turbine-seeks-path-to-market/
Niron Magnetics: https://www.nironmagnetics.com/
This next one has radically reinvented their turbine so that instead of requiring servicing 4 times a year, those parts NEVER need servicing once installed. http://newsreleases.sandia.gov/turbine_innovation/
LITHIUM RESERVES: We have 22 million tons of lithium reserves. At 8kg per EV it’s enough for 2.75 BILLION EV’s, twice what we need.
GRID storage: Sodium batteries for the first 2 hours: then pumped hydro takes over. Sodium is 30% cheaper, operates in a much greater temperature range and is thermally stable (doesn’t suddenly burst into flames). For deep storage use OFF-river pumped hydro. There are over 100 TIMES the off-river pumped hydro sites we need worldwide. https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/pumped_hydro_atlas/
ELECTRIC MOTORS: Valeo have a rare-earth free electric motor. https://www.valeo.com/en/catalogue/pts/high-voltage-rare-earth-free-electric-motor/
TESLA are working on one – prototype due mid 2024? https://www.carwow.co.uk/tesla/news/5220/new-tesla-ev-compact-electric-car-hatchback-price-specs-release-date
It’s a trend across the industry with Tesla, BMW, General Motors, Borgwarner, Jaguar & Land Rover, Tata, ZF, Vitesco, Renault, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Bentley, Marelli and Eurogroup Laminations all working on it. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automakers-suppliers-pushing-cut-rare-earths-evs-2023-11-14/
RECYCLING all these is getting more efficient. Unlike burning fossil fuels, once mined, all these minerals go into the industrial ecosystem to be recycled forever. “Black mass” from ground-up EV batteries is no longer a waste product to dispose of, but a sought after resource.
COPPER: Replace with aluminium. Aluminium is less conductive so you have to have 25% thicker wires – but that doesn’t matter as it is half the price and weight. It can replace 90% of the functions of copper. https://www.shapesbyhydro.com/en/material-properties/how-we-can-substitute-aluminium-for-copper-in-the-green-transition/
OTHER REFERENCES:-
Wang et al Jan 2023 says we have enough minerals
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00001-6#%20
The IEA says we have enough but must encourage speed of mine approval
https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals
Data scientist Hannah Ritchie of “Our world in data” and her own research says we have enough minerals – but there might be temporary shortages as we need to open more mines
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/minerals-for-electricity
Wind and solar are doubling every 4 years. That’s twice the speed oil grew in the 20th century.
EV’s WILL CAUSE OIL GLUT by 2028! To understand where the oil sector is going, we need to look at the world’s best data on EV sales – the International Energy Agency. Look at the growth rate! 2020: 5% 2021: 9% 2022: 14% https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary This trend will offset oil demand, giving mining and industry more fuel availability while they start their own electrification processes.
The IEA says there will be an oil GLUT of 3.8 mb/d by 2028!
https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028
Industry are on board. A giant industrial think-tank worth a THIRD of the Australian stock-market plans to Electrify Everything in industry. Industrial heating alone is about HALF the energy the human race uses. So what’s their plan? Oh – just build 3 TIMES Australia’s 2020 electricity grid to meet our domestic consumption of industrial goods – and then another 3 TIMES for anticipated exports by 2050! PDF page 45: https://energytransitionsinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Pathways-to-Industrial-Decarbonisation-report-Updated-August-2023-Australian-Industry-ETI.pdf
ELECTRIFYING EVERYTHING WILL DO THE SAME WORK WITH 40% OF THE ENERGY! Burning stuff like cavemen when what we want is forward motion or electricity is REALLY inefficient. It fights the second law of thermodynamics. Don’t fall for the false equivalence argument that renewables must replace fossil fuels on a 1 to 1 basis. While we’ll use a LOT more electricity because everything will be electric – we’ll only need 40% of the old energy system. https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-energy-efficiency
The bottom line? As renewables double forward towards our clean energy goals, industry and transport start to electrify as well. We’ll soon see those goals racing back to meet us!
So when you’re trying to be doubtful about the energy transition, I don’t have a clue what you’re talking about.
This is a nice complement to read: https://timotheeparrique.com/a-response-to-hannah-ritchie-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-economic-growth/