Arthur Berman: “BRICS+, Strategic Petroleum Reserve & Metaphysics”

(Conversation recorded on October 5th, 2023)

Show Summary

On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil – from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, ‘oil is the economy’ and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?

Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

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00:30 – Art Berman info, previous episodes, and slides

04:30 – OPEC+ removal of crude oil from the market

08:15 – Jeffrey Brown, Export Land Theory

09:38 – Petrodollar

09:51 – BRICS

10:20 – Luke Gromen + TGS Episode

13:10 – Oil price volatility

14:50 – Most oil production growth in the last 13 years is from the US and Canada

15:57 – NAFTA

18:16 – President Roosevelt meeting with the King of Saudi Arabia 1945 for security

19:24 – Bush invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan

19:38 – Senior Bush kicking Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and then stopping

20:08 – Saudi Arabia and Iran relationship

20:50 – Obama relationship with the middle east

21:25 – Trump and Saudi Arabia

25:41 – Putin’s degree in Resource Economics and his Thesis Paper

26:34 – US energy independence

27:35 – Europe Shale Oil

31:09 – Geological history of the continents

32:50 – Stratified Oceans

33:30 – Cyanobacteria

35:01 – Permian oil availability

35:55 – Oil investment shortage

41:26 – US Oil Decline Rate

43:15 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve

44:24 – BP case – oil decline by 20-25% over the next decade

49:27 – Largest 10 month increase in US interest rates ever, average mortgage rate approaching 8%

1:00:58 – We’ve had every increasing oil supply since the 1970s

1:06:43 – 73-74 Oil Shock, Arab Oil Embargo, Yom Kippur War

1:10:22 – SPR Drawdown

1:11:06 – US Oil exports