(Conversation recorded on October 5th, 2023)
Show Summary
On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil – from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, ‘oil is the economy’ and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?
Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.
About Arthur Berman
Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.
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Show Notes & Links to Learn More
00:30 – Art Berman info, previous episodes, and slides
04:30 – OPEC+ removal of crude oil from the market
08:15 – Jeffrey Brown, Export Land Theory
09:38 – Petrodollar
09:51 – BRICS
10:20 – Luke Gromen + TGS Episode
13:10 – Oil price volatility
14:50 – Most oil production growth in the last 13 years is from the US and Canada
15:57 – NAFTA
18:16 – President Roosevelt meeting with the King of Saudi Arabia 1945 for security
19:24 – Bush invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan
19:38 – Senior Bush kicking Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and then stopping
20:08 – Saudi Arabia and Iran relationship
20:50 – Obama relationship with the middle east
21:25 – Trump and Saudi Arabia
25:41 – Putin’s degree in Resource Economics and his Thesis Paper
26:34 – US energy independence
27:35 – Europe Shale Oil
31:09 – Geological history of the continents
32:50 – Stratified Oceans
33:30 – Cyanobacteria
35:01 – Permian oil availability
35:55 – Oil investment shortage
41:26 – US Oil Decline Rate
43:15 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve
44:24 – BP case – oil decline by 20-25% over the next decade
49:27 – Largest 10 month increase in US interest rates ever, average mortgage rate approaching 8%
1:00:58 – We’ve had every increasing oil supply since the 1970s
1:06:43 – 73-74 Oil Shock, Arab Oil Embargo, Yom Kippur War
1:10:22 – SPR Drawdown
1:11:06 – US Oil exports
