The Energy Bulletin Weekly 3 October 2022

October 3, 2022

Tom Whipple and Steve Andrews, Editors

Quotes of the Week

“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and US production will be down 20 to 30% quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold.”-An industry executive responding to a poll by the Dallas Fed

“We’re potentially moving from a world of commodity cycles to a world of commodity spikes because of the under-investment that has taken place in the last decade,”-Saad Rahim, Chief Economist for Trafigura, at the APPEC conference; in

Stats of the Week

“Last year, Russian gas accounted for 40% of [EU] gas imports. Today it’s down to 9% pipeline gas.”-Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

“LNG is projected to meet around 50% of Europe’s natural gas demand through 2030. After 2030, LNG will meet an even greater share, reaching about 75% of demand by 2040, according to the analysis” of Rystad Energy.-Michael Kern,

Global LNG demand is expected to increase 29%, to 713 million mt by 2027 from 552 million mt in 2022, according to estimates by S&P Global Commodity Insights.-Sheky Espejo, S&P Global Commodity Insights

U.S. exports of petroleum products jumped by 11% to a record 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2022, with exports growing at their fastest pace in five years, the Energy Information Administration said on Monday.-Josh Owens,

Graphics of the Week

Headlines for the week of Sept 26 – Oct 2

The Global Energy Situation

Global oil flows are changing as Russian crude moves east
IEA: LNG market to be even tighter in 2023
Major commodity trader sees looming oil price spikes
Oil sinks to first quarterly drop since 2020 as outlook darkens


Three leaks detected on Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2 pipelines: DEA
APPEC U.S. official rules out secondary sanctions for Russian oil price cap
Russian crude is slowly being squeezed out of Europe
Russian oil and fuel exports slump in September


Analysis: Russia’s Ukraine gas transit sanction threat a fresh blow for Europe
EU approves another $5.2 billion for green hydrogen projects
Russia claims EU sanctions are preventing TurkStream pipeline maintenance

North America

U.S. fuel exports broke records in the first half of 2022
Biden officials float fuel export limit in meeting with refiners
US gasoline stocks tighten amid stronger demand, weak refinery runs
Exxon tells U.S. administration fuel export curbs will raise gasoline prices
Oil executives: Prices don’t reflect tight supply
Americas are consuming more oil, even if they’re not driving much
Gasoline prices could return to $5 per gallon
Oil halts two-day slide on a report of Russia pushing for oil cuts
Solar cell breakthrough could challenge silicon dominance

Middle East/NA

OPEC+ to hold Oct. 5 meeting in person in Vienna
An Israel-Lebanon border deal could increase natural gas supplies
Russia at the forefront of development of huge Iranian oil fields
OPEC+ has begun talks on output cut at Oct. 5 meeting – OPEC source
Russia seen suggesting OPEC+ cuts oil output by 1 mln bpd – source


China to allow a lot more fuel exports to a possible boost oil


Nigeria’s fuel subsidies surpassed $1 billion in August as it supplied more petrol

Latin Americ

Global demand drives plans for liquefaction, export of US gas from Mexico

The Global Economy

Russia’s war in Ukraine to cost global economy $2.8 Trillion, OECD says


The price of rice: a beacon of stability in agricultural markets
Long road ahead for restoring global corn supply hit by weather, war

North America

Factory jobs are booming like it’s the 1970s
U.S. core capital goods orders surge; consumer confidence rises further
MIT engineers design new low-cost battery for energy storage
The U.S. wind industry is racking up big wins
NY Governor orders regulatory action to require all LDVs sold in state to be zero-emissions by 2035
Eviation’s electric commuter plane Alice makes first test flight
The U.S. plan to power 100% of its flights with renewable jet fuel


Europe faces an exodus of energy-intensive industries
Europe is ready for a winter without Russian gas, BNEF says
Germany will enter recession next year, say leading economists
Meeting in Brussels signifies a turning point for allies arming Ukraine
Eurozone inflation hits 10% as power suppliers scramble for reserves


Russia aiming to fly solo without Airbus and Boeing
E.U. moves to impose new sanctions to punish Russia for ‘sham’ referendums
Ukraine says it encircles Russian troops at Lyman stronghold


Soybean meal prices in China hit record high amid tight supply
China reins in its Belt and Road program, $1 trillion later
China’s service sector slows in latest economic warning sign
China’s rival aircraft to Boeing, Airbus jets wins certification


Nigeria suffers widespread blackouts after electricity grid fails


Japan’s top refiner is gearing up for the oil industry’s decline

Global Warming

Climate change could cost the global economy $23 trillion by 2050
The world is too busy to do its Climate Summit homework

North America

Florida’s chaotic insurance market braces for hurricane Ian


Study: Heat wave led to unprecedented melt of Swiss glaciers

Tom Whipple

Tom Whipple is one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. A retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999, Tom is the editor of the long-running Energy Bulletin (formerly "Peak Oil News" and "Peak Oil Review"). Tom has degrees from Rice University and the London School of Economics.  

Tags: geopolitics, oil prices