June 27, 2022 

Tom Whipple and Steve Andrews, Editors

Quotes of the Week

““The loss of Russian refining and product exports is not going to be plugged easily by the rest of the world. High diesel prices will drive hyperinflation globally and point towards a possible contraction in GDP. Demand destruction may lead to a recession and restore balance, but this will be a painful experience for consumers.”-Rystad Energy, in Oilprice.com

The supply chain seems stretched to the max in the Permian Basin. There really is not much ability to increase drilling activity.”-An executive at an oilfield service company, quoted by Oilprice.com

Graphic of the Week

Headlines for the week of  June 20 – June 26

The Global Energy Situation

Diesel price shock imminent as reserves drop, refining lags
Can the global gasoline and diesel crisis be solved?

Russia

Russia tightens gas grip as it rejects extra Ukraine transit
Operations at Russia’s Novoshakhtinsky refinery suspended after two drone strikes
Russian momentum in Ukraine could slow for lack of resources – British PM
Russian oil disappears as tankers go dark near Azores

Europe

NATO warns of long Ukraine war as battles in the east grind on
Europe faces “red alert” for gas supply as Russia reduces flows
IEA chief warns Europe to prepare for a total shutdown of Russian gas exports
Biggest rail strike in 30 years brings the UK to a standstill

North America

Below-average weekly US natural gas storage build expected amid rising power burn demand
EIA: US refining capacity sinks to near-decade low
Dallas Fed: Surging costs hamper U.S. shale growth
Cheniere Energy authorizes expansion at the Texas LNG export plant
ExxonMobil CEO says oil and gas markets may be tight for 3 to 5 more years
German utility signs long-term deal to buy LNG from the US

China

China may no longer be a pillar of growth for global oil markets
China May oil imports from Russia soar to a record, surpass top supplier Saudi

Middle East

Qatar expands LNG capacity to become Europe’s emergency gas supplier
OPEC+ to stick to oil supply rise plan as Biden heads to Saudi – sources

Africa

Widening protests may worsen South Africa power cuts, Eskom says

The Global Economy

Agriculture

Global food inflation gets reprieve as wheat to palm oil tumble
Romanian port struggles to handle the flow of Ukrainian grain

US

Jay Powell warns US recession is ‘certainly a possibility
Fed paper finds the elevated probability of recession
Florida homeowners to pay higher premiums as reinsurers see risks and pull back
U.S. Senate’s no. 2 Republican says gas tax holiday ‘dead on arrival

Europe

Ukraine takes a tentative step towards EU membership
U.S. to send $450 million in security aid to Ukraine in the latest package
Germany triggers gas alarm stage, accuses Russia of ‘economic attack’
Germany risks recession as the Russian gas crisis deepens
EU plan for life without Russian gas a priority as leaders meet

China

No Biden move on Chinese tariffs likely before G7 meeting – sources
CHINA DATA: Key product exports slump to a 4-month low of 1.77 million mt in May
CATL launches 3rd generation of cell-to-pack; 72% volume utilization efficiency, up to 255 Wh/kg

Middle East

Iran makes a major concession to revive stalled nuclear negotiations

Latin America

Ecuador halts all oil operations amid escalating protests

Asia

South Korea’s Russian crude imports plunge 84% on year to 696,000 barrels in May
Pakistan faces a deeper power crisis as LNG becomes too expensive

Africa

Nigeria, others move to revive $13bn Trans-Saharan gas pipeline as demand pressure mounts
Africa: Glencore subsidiary pleads guilty to bribery at African oil operations

Global Warming

Europe

EU warns against fossil fuel ‘backsliding’ as coal replaces Russian gas
Major firms ready to lower gas use this summer, Germany says
German chemicals sector sees little scope to replace gas with heating oil, coal

Middle East

Saudi oil giant understates carbon footprint by up to 50%