When Risk Assessment is Risky: Predicting the Effects of Technology

Oil price manipulation is taking many forms after the closure of one of the world’s major choke points for oil transport sent oil prices higher.

Hence, the severe restrictions in the flow of oil though the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from the recent US-Iranian attacks, may be seen as a stark rehearsal for the consequences of a severe shock in the global oil supply, as might be experienced from a “peak oil” crisis, with volatile price spikes and supply chain disruptions.

This is the paradox both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now navigating. The grey war they are waging — economically, culturally, through regional proxies — is a race to secure the post-oil future before the other does.