UK Gov't Department of Energy and Climate Change Pathways 2050 report - July 30

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2050 Pathways Analysis
UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

We need a transformation of the UK economy to ensure secure low carbon energy supplies to 2050. We are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the UK by at least 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. We face major choices about how to move to a secure, low carbon economy over this period. Should we do more to cut demand, or rely more on increasing and decarbonising the energy supply? How will we produce our electricity? Which technologies will we adopt? The Department of Energy and Climate Change and other Government departments have been working hard with stakeholders to work out what this means for the country, for the energy sector and other major emitting sectors, and for individuals.

The analysis in the 2050 Pathways work presents a framework through which to consider some of the choices and trade-offs which we will have to make over the next forty years. It is system-wide, covering all parts of the economy and all greenhouse gas emissions released in the UK. It shows that it is possible for us to meet the 80% emissions reduction target in a range of ways, and allows people to explore the combinations of effort which meet the emissions target while matching energy supply and demand.

The 2050 work comprises several products:

The 2050 Pathways Analysis report explains the assumptions and approach used in the 2050 work, including the trajectories for each sector of the economy and some of the implications. The report also describes six different illustrative pathways to show various successful routes to 2050, as well as a high-carbon reference case. Other versions of this document in Braille, other languages or audio-cassette can be made available on request. This includes a Welsh version.

The 2050 Pathways calculator tool is a simple user-friendly model allowing users to explore different combinations of levels of change across the sectors to create pathways which successfully achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, while ensuring that energy supply meets demand. For each sector of the economy it offers up to four trajectories ranging from little or no effort to reduce emissions and save energy (‘level 1’) to extremely ambitious changes that push towards the physical or technical limits of what can be achieved (‘level 4’). This model does not display the underlying calculations and assumptions.

The 2050 Pathways Calculator Excel model is a more complex model which allows users to create alternative pathways to 2050 as above, and also displays the supporting calculations and assumptions. Please note the Excel model is only available in 2007 format. If you are unable to open the file, you may download a more recent version of Excel. You may need to maximise your Excel view to see this spreadsheet in full. For further details of the assumptions and to create pathways, see the products above.

The Call for Evidence invites feedback on the products above and the supporting assumptions by 5 October 2010. An online template for responses is provided.

The role of DECC and Government

The UK has major choices about how to move to a secure, low-carbon energy system over the period to 2050. This 2050 Pathways work is the first version of a framework which will help policymakers as well as the energy industry and the public understand these choices. This work is not about choosing a pathway to 2050 today — such a task would not be feasible given the major unknowns and timeframe involved. However, this work enables us to better manage some significant long-term uncertainties and helps us to avoid making long-term decisions that are incompatible with meeting our 2050 emissions target.

What people can do to get involved

The route to 2050 will not be easy: we know that very substantial changes will be required across a wide range of sectors and across many aspects of our lives, even though we do not yet know the precise detail of these changes. Creating a low carbon economy will require the consent and participation of citizens.

The publication of this Call for Evidence and the launch of the online 2050 Pathways Calculator allows the public to engage in the debate on how we achieve our goals and ensure that our efforts add up to what is required.

We have a ten-week call for evidence period and an online template for responses can be found below.

Related Links

(27 July 2010)

UK energy scenarios: working with a flawed model
Akanksha Awal, Financial Times
In the UK’s first ever annual energy statement, Chris Huhne, UK energy and climate change secretary, asked researchers, industry experts and members of the public a series of questions about the country’s energy priorities. The answers to these questions, he announced, will help form the basis of Britain’s pathway to energy security by the year 2050.

In line with David Cameron’s “Big Society” idea, the annual statement is accompanied by a “Call for evidence” and a software, essentially an excel spreadsheet, which models energy supply and demand to show alternative energy policy scenarios. The package is the government’s attempt to raise public support for the upcoming energy policy that will be announced later in the year.

But the spreadsheet currently does not contain any information on costs of any of the technologies, which is essential for the decision-making process that would shape public opinion on the subject. This crucial omission makes the tool ineffective for policy-makers and members of the public seeking to engage with Britain’s energy policy.

On Tuesday, Mr Huhne presented six energy scenarios, which he contends are illustrative scenarios for a successful energy policy as they are based on the engineering capabilities present in the world today.

The spreadsheet allows the users to choose from four different levels of effort in each category on the demand as well as the supply side, and shows incremental changes in energy production and efficiency that are required to enable Britain achieve its energy goal.

Indeed, the best choices to meet Britain’s energy needs, using the package, are the six scenarios that the secretary has presented…
(28 July 2010)

DECC publishes plans for achieving 2050 targets
NewEnergyFocus
The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has today (July 27) published the first Annual Energy Statement which outlines 32 actions to accelerate the transformation of the energy system to 2050, including plans to produce a renewable delivery plan and to exploit waste resources for energy generation.

The statement was presented to Parliament by energy secretary Chris Huhne, who also announced a raft of further energy measures, including the government’s decision to ‘grandfather’ support for biomass technologies under the Renewables Obligation (RO) and the publication of six pathways to 2050.

In the Annual Energy Statement, DECC confirms that it will “set out detailed proposals for taking forward the government’s commitment to renewable heat through the Spending Review” – meaning those awaiting an announcement on the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) will have to wait until October.

It also states that the Department will launch ‘Community Energy Online’ this autumn which will support local authorities who wish to develop local renewable energy schemes and claims a robust Delivery Plan for renewables will be drawn up with delivery partners over the summer before it is published for implementation…
(2X July 2010)

DECC lays out six possible futures for low-carbon energy
Andrew Charlesworth, BusinessGreen
In parallel with the first annual energy statement made by energy secretary Chris Huhne is parliament today, DECC has published the 2050 Pathways Analysis, which illustrates six possible energy mixes to achieve secure and affordable energy supplies in the UK while still hitting the 2050 target of reducing emissions by 80 per cent on 1990 levels.

The Pathways analysis is the government’s first comprehensive, long-term look at the UK’s energy supply and demand sectors and greenhouse gas emissions to 2050. It shows some of the energy choices and trade-offs to be made over the next 40 years.

DECC has also issued a call for evidence, inviting feedback on the analysis.

The report has been welcomed by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI), a public private partnership made up of BP, Caterpillar, EDF, E.ON, Rolls-Royce and Shell.

“Many of the technical issues identified in the scenarios align with the ETI’s technology programme, including how to create sustainable sources of bio energy, the challenges of developing more affordable large-scale carbon capture and storage facilities and establishing more cost effective offshore renewables,” said ETI chief executive Dr David Clarke.

While the energy mixes differ in each of the Pathways’ scenarios, a number of common conclusions emerge.

Ambitious per capita energy demand reduction is needed. The greater the constraints on low-carbon energy supply, the greater the reduction in demand will need to be.

A substantial level of electrification of heating, transport and industry is needed. Consequently, electricity supply may need to double, and will need to be decarbonised. That in turn means increasing the level of variable renewable generation, which increases the challenge of balancing the electricity grid with stable base-load power.

Sustainable bioenergy will be vital in sectors where electrification is unlikely to be practical, such as in long-haul freight transport and aviation and some industrial high-grade heating processes, the analysis says.

The pathways also show an ongoing need for fossil fuels in our energy mix, although how long they remain so will depend on a range of issues, not least how soon they are depleted and whether carbon capture and storage can ever be developed on a viable industrial scale…
(27 July 2010)