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Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?
Lester Brown, Scientific American
Key Concepts
- Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos.
- Such “failed states” can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees.
- Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production.
- Without massive and rapid intervention to address these three environmental factors, the author argues, a series of government collapses could threaten the world order.
(23 April 2009)
A Future Too Big to Fail: Ecological Ignorance and Economic Collapse
Chip Ward, TomDispatch
“Too big to fail.” It’s been the mantra of our economic meltdown. Although meant to emphasize the overwhelming importance of this bank or that corporation, the phrase also unwittingly expresses a shared delusion that may be at the root of our current crises — both economic and ecological.
In nature, nothing is too big to fail. In fact, big is bound to fail. To understand why that’s so means stepping away from a prevailing set of beliefs that holds us in its sway, especially the deep conviction that we operate apart from nature’s limits and rules.
Here’s the heart of the matter: We are ecologically illiterate — not just unfamiliar with the necessary scientific vocabulary and concepts, but spectacularly, catastrophically, tragically dumb. Oh yes, some of us now understand that draining those wetlands, clear-cutting the rainforests, and pumping all that CO2 into the atmosphere are self-destructively idiotic behaviors. But when it comes down to how nature itself behaves, we remain remarkably clueless.
The Adaptive Cycle from Google to GM
Science tells us that complex adaptive systems, like economies or ecosystems, tend to go through basic phases, however varied they may be. In the adaptive cycle, first comes a growth phase characterized by open opportunity. The system is weaving itself together and so there are all sorts of niches to be filled, paths to take, partnerships to be made, all involving seemingly endless possibilities and potential. Think of Google.
As niches are filled and the system sorts out, establishing strong interdependent relationships, the various players become less diverse and are bound together in ways that are ever more constricting. This is the consolidation phase that follows growth. As the system matures, it may look ever bigger and more indestructible, but it is actually growing ever more vulnerable. Think of General Motors.
The hidden weakness that underlies big systems is inherent in the consolidation phase. When every player gets woven ever more tightly into every other, a seemingly small change in a remote corner of the system can cascade catastrophically through the whole of it. Think of a lighted match at the edge of a dry forest. Think of Bear Stearns.
(20 April 2009)
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
Francois Cellier, The Oil Drum: Europe
Recently a debate has arisen here at ETH Zurich centering on the question whether the envisaged “2000 Watt Society” is inevitable. Why shouldn’t we be allowed to use more energy? Wouldn’t it be more important to limit greenhouse gas emissions? A report about the new energy strategy of ETH Zurich was published in the Oil Drum in May 2008.
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels. What are the implications of energy deprivation to our society? Can we stave off famine? How can we maximize our chances of getting through the emerging world-wide crisis relatively unscathed? What are the pitfalls in designing and implementing a strategy that helps us achieve these goals? How much time have we got left?
Predictions are notoriously difficult, especially when they concern the future. So, how sure can we be that our predictions are correct? How can we convince the public at large that there is a real and present danger looming in the not too distant future, despite the fact that at this point in time few signs of any problems are noticeable yet here in Switzerland, and particularly, as the crude oil price has recently fallen to one fourth of the value it was at in early July of last year?
This paper is based on a talk presented by the author at the Zurich Physics Colloquium a few days ago. The talk is available on the net both as a Powerpoint presentation and as a podcast.
… Conclusions
When I walk through the streets of Zurich and look into the windows of the shops, I don’t notice any change yet. There is no shortage of anything. Energy is cheap and amply available. The inflation rate has come down. Unemployment hasn’t picked up yet. It is still below 3%.
For this reason, I cannot blame the average Swiss for walking through life with blinders on. Life is good, they think. There isn’t a worry in the world. Those who predict doom are just that: doomers. There is no reason to listen to them, let alone take them seriously.
With this article, I hope to wake some of my compatriots up from their sleeping-beauty slumber. Problems that lie ahead don’t need to be obvious and visible in order to make them predictable.
Peak oil is taking place as I write. An immediate and inevitable effect of peak oil will be rapidly rising energy prices, and those are accompanied by a further downturn of the economy. This is going to happen irrespective of what we do.
Yet, this does not mean that we cannot prepare ourselves and thereby soften the impact of these events on the Swiss population. In fact, we should have started preparing much earlier, as we have known about these problems for more than 30 years already. The longer we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be to avert the worst. If we do nothing, we’ll experience the full brunt of peak oil and its consequences, unmitigated and merciless.
(23 April 2009)
