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Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004
ace, The Oil Drum
Non OPEC-12 oil production peaked in 2004 at 46.8 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2004 but decreases to 42.1 mbd.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining non OPEC-12 oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.
(23 February 2009)
“A Farm for the Future”… essential viewing (BBC does peak oil)
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
I know from email and comments I have had that many of you watched and loved Rebecca Hosking’s programme that was shown on BBC2 on Friday called ‘A Farm for the Future’. The programme looked at Rebecca’s father’s farm in Devon, and at her wanting to rethink the farm in the light of peak oil. The programme introduced the nation to such permaculture luminaries as Martin Crawford, Patrick Whitefield and the wonderful Chris Dixon, as well as to the work of the late Arthur Hollins (who I was fortunate enough to meet in the mid 90s). You can watch the programme for the next 24 days here ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hs8zp ).
It featured a crash course in peak oil from Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg, a trip to the Soil Association conference, a trip round Martin Crawford’s forest garden and much more besides. There was some great archive film of horses and hayricks, and perhaps the bit that struck me most, some film from the early 80s of her dad ploughing their fields, followed by a riot of birds, all wanting to get at the soil creatures being exposed by the ploughing, which she contrasts with now, the tractor ploughing the same field, but with not a bird in sight, so impoverished has the soil life become.
It offered a powerful combination of looking back and looking forward, underpinned all the time by her clear deep affection she has for the farm itself. and the deep respect she has for both her father and his work. It was surprisingly personal and moving. For me, the proof of this programme was a visit yesterday from my father in law, not usually one to be interested in such things, who had seen the programme, loved it, and told me excitedly that he now knew that hedgerows could be productive, and that fossil fuels are running out. He was very impressed with the agroforestry side of things, and I suspect that many people also watched it and found themselves similarly having Eureka moments as regards some of the insights about soil, ecosystems and the idea that food production need not necessarily involve huge tractors and lashings of diesel. It was also very powerful for people to start to realise that food production and biodiversity are not necessarily, as is often believed, mutually exclusive.
… If you liked this programme, do write to the BBC’s Points of View programme and let them know. We need a lot more programmes that address this subject, and apparently Points of View is one of the BBC’s key ways of telling what people enjoyed and would like to see more of… “Dear BBC. Why, oh why, oh why…..” is generally the accepted way of starting a letter to them….
(23 February 2009)
Unfortunately, the documentary is not viewable outside the UK. We are trying to find a way to get it to our readers. Any ideas? -BA
UPDATE (Feb 26) Reader DB points out that in the comments at Rob’s article are two suggestions for viewing the film outside the UK.
Sovereign wealth eyes move into commodities, oil
Christopher Johnson, Reuters
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) — the investment arms of cash-rich nations such as China and Qatar — are poised to raise their holdings of commodities and oil in a move that could have a huge impact on financial markets.
Sitting on up to $4 trillion in assets, much of it from selling oil and other raw materials, most SWFs have so far been conservative in their investment choices, holding dollars, treasuries and shares in large U.S. and European companies.
But they have been badly burned by the global financial and economic turmoil over the last 18 months and are now looking at new strategies to protect their interests, analysts say.
As these funds switch into commodities and oil those markets will be supported by the sheer weight of their purchases.
(24 February 2009)
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
Rembrandt, The Oil Drum
United States coal reserves are taking a beating in a new examination by the USGS of recoverable reserves of Gilette in Wyoming, the largest field in the US with 37% of total coal production in 2006. Its present reserves have been downgraded by half thanks to an improved methodology which incorporates a new dataset with ten times as many datapoints as used in the previous assessment. Of 182 billion metric tonnes of resource in place, 9.16 billion (6% of original resource total) were found to be recoverable under “current technological and economic circumstances”. This compares to an earlier assessment from 2002 by the USGS in which 20.87 billion metric tons were estimated to be recoverable.
The one catch is that the term “present economic circumstances” depends very much on the price of coal. If the price of coal increases significantly, the newly estimated reserve level of 9.16 billion metric tons can be expected to increase, perhaps several-fold. Although the USGS takes a shot at determining the price-sensitivity of reserves by discussing its effect, there still are a lot of open ends. Nonetheless the economic aspect of coal recoverability should be taken seriously; hence the question mark in the title.
The new USGS assessment does show that the statement made by the US National Academy of Science two years ago, that US coal reserves are likely overstated, should be taken seriously. The National Academy of Science concluded at that time that coal recoverability estimates are based on outdated assessment methods–these methods have not been reviewed or revised since 1974 and primarily reflect input data from the early 1970s.
More information on the USGS study, including estimates by the US of the effect of changing economic conditions on coal availability in Gillette, can be found below the fold. The study itself is available through this weblink …
(24 February 2009)
Energy Security First (Canada)
Rick Munroe, Ottawa Citizen
Canada’s natural gas production is entering serious decline, but most Canadians remain unaware.
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In October 2007 the National Energy Board quietly issued a report entitled “Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability.” Its contents are shocking, yet there has been no public response.
The first step in our natural gas supply is finding it. On p. 8, the report states, “there is a well-established trend of decreasing finding rate year on year.”
Second, the wells don’t last: “over the first year and a half of production, the annual decline rate of the average well is 55%” (p. vii).
Third, western conventional gas production is plummeting: the NEB chart on p. 16 shows that total WCSB conventional gas is projected to decline 16% from 2006-2009.
One month later, the NEB issued its “Canada’s Energy Future to 2030.”
This report states that “increasing demand and gradually declining production reduces the net exports to zero by 2028 [after which] Canada becomes a net gas importer, reliant on LNG [liquified natural gas] imports” (p.xx).
As if losing 16% of our western production in just three years were not bad enough, the November report goes on to predict that “Canadian natural gas production is expected to decline by almost 40% by the end of 2030” (p.48).
Keep in mind that the US takes over half of Canadian NG production and the planned tar sands expansion (also geared to serve the US market) will increase NG demand considerably.
What does the NEB say about this impending supply crunch? It states that by 2030 Canada will need to import about three billion cubic ft per day of liquid natural gas (LNG) via five import terminals (p.46).
Bottom line: our natural gas, which could and should have kept Canadians warm for centuries, is rapidly disappearing.
Beginning in St. John and Kitimat, Canadians will gradually see our NG pipelines reversed and our formerly secure supply of domestic gas replaced by overseas LNG.
Relying on a volatile global LNG market to warm our homes in February is hardly prudent, but there is no public awareness, no media interest and no political discussion.
So Canadians will have no choice.
Thanks to the Ottawa Citizen for presenting this information to the Canadian public.
[Related letter by Rick Munroe at the Ottawa Citizen: ]
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/letters/Energy+security+first/13221…
Rick Munroe,
National Farmers Union
Howe Island, Ontario
(24 February 2009)
