Economics & Turmoil – January 23

January 23, 2009

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Iceland’s Parliament under Siege

Iceland Review Online
Thousands of people protested outside the Althingi parliament yesterday on the occasion of parliament reconvening. Protestors demanded that the government step down and early elections be held. The demonstration began at noon and lasted until after midnight.

People used pots and pans as drums and shouted their demands at parliament, Fréttabladid reports.

“We, the citizens of this country, are expressing our feelings towards authorities who act as if we don’t exist,” Hördur Torfason, leader of the Voices of the People, who organized the demonstration, said in a speech at Austurvöllur parliamentary square around midday.

In the back garden of Althingi, police resorted to the use of pepper spray, accusing protestors of stoning the building. Nearly 30 people were arrested but released after questioning. Protestors accused police of resorting to unnecessarily harsh measures.
(21 January 2009)


Riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria are a sign of things to come

Roger Boyes, Times (UK)
Icelanders all but stormed their Parliament last night. It was the first session of the chamber after what might appear to be an unusually long Christmas break.

Ordinary islanders were determined to vent their fury at the way that the political class had allowed the country to slip towards bankruptcy. The building was splattered with paint and yoghurt, the crowd yelled and banged pans, fired rockets at the windows and lit a bonfire in front of the main door. Riot police moved in.

Now in the grand sweep of the current crisis, a riot on a piece of volcanic rock in the north Atlantic may not seem to add up to much. But it is a sign of things to come: a new age of rebellion.

The financial meltdown has become part of the real economy and is now beginning to shape real politics. More and more citizens on the edge of the global crisis are taking to the streets.
(21 January 2009)


Roubini: The Worst Is Yet To Come

Nouriel Roubini, Forbes
… As my work and the work of our research team at RGE Monitor predicts (we will publish, later this week, our 2009 Global Economic Outlook, a 75-page research piece for our clients), this will be the worst U.S. recession in the last 50 years–and the worst synchronized global recession in decades.

… So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to one-third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy action by both advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure the global economy starts to recover, however slowly, in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.
(22 January 2009)


Why You’ll Work Through Your Retirement

Chris Farrell, Business Week
There is a major social and cultural message in the current economic collapse for the future retirees of America: Forget retirement.

That’s right. The recession is making clear what we’ve suspected for a long time. The concept of not working and embracing leisure for the last third of one’s life isn’t practical for most people.

Put it this way: Survey after survey has shown that a majority of aging baby boomers plan on working in retirement. Well, that plan is coming true.
(21 January 2009)


Recession or depression? Too early to tell

John W. Schoen, MSNBC
… what are the odds that we’re in the early stages of what will eventually become a depression rather than just a recession?

The answer starts with definitions. While the term “depression” is reserved for the most extreme economic collapses, there is no technical definition, say economists.

… As bad as things are today, conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the Great Depression. At least not yet.

The differences are stark. From 1929 and 1933, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product plunged 27 percent, some 10 times worse than any recession since. Today, even the worst forecasts don’t expect GDP to shrink by more than a few percent this year before recovering in 2010.

Unemployment in the 1930s peaked at 25 percent in 1933; most forecasters don’t expect unemployment this time around to rise much above 10 percent, compared with the current 7.2 percent.
(22 January 2009)
Journalist John W. Schoen was one of the first in the mainstream media to write about peak oil. -BA


Tags: Politics