A world with energy doubled in price That’s the scenario for the year 2020 that 150 people in Addison County, Vermont considered for a day last weekend. The organizers asked participants to imagine the following scenario for 2020:
- Energy costs are 200% higher than today. Gas costs $8/gallon; diesel costs $10/gallon. Electricty costs $0.25 per kWh. Dry firewood costs $600 a cord.
- Atmospheric carbon is at 410 ppm, compared to 387 ppm today. The “safe” limit is 350 ppm.
- Federal and state funding for schools, roads, health crae, social security, unemployment, and income support is 50% lower compared to today.
- Local goods and services represent 50% of the county’s economy, compared to 10% today.
The participants’ task was to figure out what they want their world to look like under that scenario, and then figure out how to move in that direction.
The exercise was the heart of the county’s seventh Conservation Congress. The focus was on how to respond to peak oil, climate change, and the financial unraveling. Inspired by the Transition Towns movement that began in England, the organizers invited the community to plan together for radical, desirable transformations.
David Brynn, executive director of a key sponsoring organization, Vermont Family Forests, put it this way:
Celebrate. We can make the transition. We are very fortunate to live in an amazingly beautiful and verdant place. We are also fortunate to live in a place rich in human resources and creativity.
Today as we explore the transition that global climate change, peaking oil supplies, and a rapidly changing economy now require, we must not forget to celebrate the human ingenuity, capacity, and creativity of our Addison County community.
Look around, listen to your neighbors, celebrate what we’re doing, tell your story. There’s already so much happening for which to be grateful.
Similarly, John Elder put the participants in the mood to imagine a positive future, very different from today:
We need to visualize what and whom we love in the present of our place. I remember hearing David Suzuki speaking once about some of these necessary changes. At the end of the lecture, someone put up their hand and said, Do you really think people in a country like this are willing to lower our standard of living? And his answer was, “I’m talking about raising our standard of living.”
If we could liver closer to where we work, in larger, multigenerational groups, if we could grow and cook more of our own food; if we could transport ourselves much more with muscle power, if we could provide more of our entertainment, we would be moving in the direction not only of land stewardship, but of pleasure, shared pleasure. Not just sitting in heavy traffic in a really expensive car.
This gathering was no mere lip service to celebration and beauty. The main work of the day was done in 12 separate rooms, each addressing a pair of related issues. Money and banking was one; food and farming was another; a third was heat and power. In each room, a visual artist listened to the discussions and summed the discussion up… in a painting!
The paintings were later taped together to form a long roll, and the roll was wound through a vaudeville era device called a “crankie.” It was like showing a slide show of drawings.
Pete Sutherland accompanied the crankie show with his song about peak oil, “Nothing But Wisdom.” Let’s hope he records it soon. The first stanza lyrics are:
When the wells run dry,
And the trucks don’t roll,
When the pilot light is out,
And they’ve had to quit the coal,
When the sky is for the birds,
And the roads are for your feet,
We will all want less,
And appreciate it more.
At the end of the day, each of the working groups had produced not only a painting, but also a vision statement for their theme, ten goals for the year 2020, and three actions for meeting those goals.
The organizers are writing up the groups’ visions, goals, and actions. Here are some of themes that cut across many of the groups:
Better public transportation. In addition to the group specifically focussed on transportation, better bus service and more carpools were prioritized by the groups working on business and enterprise, housing and shelter, and governance and public safety. The health and wellness group had a variation on the theme, calling for mobile health clinics that would travel to where the patients needed the care.
Food and food production. The housing group recommended preserving agricultural land, making it difficult to build on or pave or the food-producing landscape. The health group promoted healthy food. The food and farming group couldn’t limit themselves to three action items, but put forth a “restrained” list of eleven, including electing legislators who support local food, preserving 50% of your own food, and hiring a farmer to work with schools.
Keep local money local. The housing group called for an Addison County Housing Improvement Loan Fund, with revolving loans for efficiency improvements and renewable energy. The money and banking group wanted to see a local currency to encourage local trading, as well as to provide a fall-back in case the dollar doesn’t hold its value. The business and enterprise group concurred with the value of local commerce, but pointed out that trade with the outside world is vital, too, and Addison County needs to maintain or improve its infrastructure for trade.
Build community. Just about everything revolved around a stronger community. The housing group foresaw a “consolidation” of housing, with more people of different generations living under one roof. They also wanted brigades of volunteers to help weatherize homes, the way Between the Cracks is doing in Montpelier. The health group said that social support is part of healthy living. The governance group wanted more participation in decision-making, using electronic tools. The food and farming group thought breaking bread with your neighbors more often would be a good household and individual first step. And the money and banking group emphasized micro-lending and other means of funding local needs with local resources.
This can sound like a simple essay on Small is Beautiful. The power of the gathering was that it was more than one blogger’s essay. The organizers of the Conservation Congress anticipate rapid changes in how our society is organized. Participants set ambitious goals for meeting the challenges. They’ve set themselves a lot of work; at least now they have a rough roadmap that a significant chunk of the community has agreed to.
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All photos courtesy of Jonathan Blake
