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Russia’s achilles heel
Steve LeVine, Business Week (journalist blog)
Over the last couple of days, the post-mortems have begun to roll in from big-thinkers on Russia. The prescriptions advised in order to bring about status-quo ante in Georgia – ejecting Russia from G-8, distancing Moscow further from global trade treaties – add up to a consensus of “Oh Dear, Oh My.” Non-membership in G-8 and WTO no doubt is provoking snickers in the Kremlin.
Contrary to these views, however, the West and the U.S. in particular do have one very real lever, one that Karl Rove might recognize – Russia’s very strength.
Russia’s Achilles Heel is its petro-power. It’s a message that both senators Barack Obama (and his running mate Joe Biden) and John McCain should keep in mind as they prepare to deal with Russia.
For more than a year, O and G has been describing progressive U.S. setbacks in what I’ve called the Pipeline War, the struggle with Russia for energy-driven political influence in Europe. We’ve also been writing here during that period about the growing tensions between Russia and Georgia.
In a nutshell, Russia understands that power in a large swath of the world – Europe, the former Soviet Union and parts of the Middle East – can be exerted from control of oil and natural gas pipelines. That’s how the U.S. has inserted its power into Russia’s backyard – through the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline that crosses the country of today’s conflict, Georgia. Now, Vladimir Putin intends to build on Russia’s restored power by erecting two gigantic new natural gas pipelines into Europe, which already relies on Russia for almost a third of its gas.
Here’s where the Achilles Heel comes in.
Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory , a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his new book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians. It was released this week.
(23 August 2008)
Steve LeVine has been a contributor to Energy Bulletin.
Analyst warns of looming global climate wars
ABC News (Australia)
The prospect of global wars driven by climate change is not something often discussed publicly by our political leaders.
But according to one of America’s top military analysts, governments in the US and UK are already being briefed by their own military strategists about how to prepare for a world of mass famine, floods of refugees and even nuclear conflicts over resources.
Gwynne Dyer is a military analyst and author who served in three navies and has held academic posts at the Royal Military College at Sandhurst and at Oxford.
Speaking about his latest book, Climate Wars, he says there is a sense of suppressed panic from the scientists and military leaders.
“Mostly it’s about winners and losers, at least in the early phases of climate change,” he said.
“If you’re talking about 1 degree, 2 degrees hotter – not runaway stuff – but what we’re almost certainly committed to over the next 30 or 40 years, there will be countries that get away relatively cost free in that scenario, particularly countries in the higher latitudes.”
But he says that closer to the equator in the relatively arid zone – where Australia is situated – there will be very serious droughts.
“[There will be] huge falls in the amount of crops that you can grow because there isn’t the rain and it’s too hot,” he said.
“That will apply particularly to the Mediterranean… and so not just the north African countries, but also the ones on the northern side of the Mediterranean.
“The ones in the European Union like Spain and Italy and Greece and the Balkans and Turkey are going to be suffering huge losses in their ability to support their populations.
Climate refugees
He says a fall in crops and food production means there will be refugees, people who are desperate.
Adapted from an interview first aired on The World Today, August 25.
(25 August 2008)
How Brazil’s PetroBras (PBR) could deliver Cuban Oil to U.S.
Irwin Greenstein, Contrarian Profits
Never heard of Cuban oil?
Well, the U.S. Geological Survey reported Cuba’s oil capacity at 4.6 billion barrels – plus 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That’s why U.S. oil companies are completely frustrated at America’s 44-year-old trade embargo: they can’t get close to it.
But Brazil’s oil company, Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has become a rising star in the story of Cuban oil…
… amid the turmoil, neutral Brazil has bought itself a top position to get at Cuba’s oil. Its aim is to displace Venezuela as Cuba’s number-one oil ally. If it succeeds, Brazil’s Petrobras could become a viable go-between for delivering some of that crude into the U.S.
(25 August 2008)
