Peak oil – Apr 13

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Monbiot piqued by peak oil planning
People & Planet news
George Monbiot last night declared recent environmental developments as cause for great concern. In over twenty years of activism, he said that he had fought against becoming too pessimistic and had always thought that although Government rarely did much to tackle problems directly, he was comforted by the thought that should a ‘serious problem’ arise then the Government would work out what needed to be done and do it. No longer.

What appears to have pushed Monbiot over the edge is the Government’s lack of planning for the end of oil. He had contacted the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (DBERR) to ask them what assessments they had made of world oil reserves and had received a succinct if frightening reply: none. He returned to DBERR to enquire what contingency plans they had put in place in case of difficulties in maintaining the supply of oil that greases the international economy, allowing us to buy food from all over the world whenever we want to and to jet off anywhere in the world on a whim, and he received the same reply. The Government has seemingly given no thought to oil production declining and eventually running out, and what we might do when that happens.

Instead, Monbiot discovered, the UK Government depends for its information upon a 2005 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that ridicules those who question the plausibility of an oil-powered future as ‘doomsayers’. This report, in turn, uses data supplied by the countries in OPEC (the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries). Yet this data is not reliable.
(10 April 2008)

Peak and ye shall find-it doesn’t have to be so bad
Perry A. Fischer, World Oil Magazine.
… Now after having said all that, it is true that, whatever the level of risk was that global “oil” production would peak, that risk has increased over the past 18 months. Conventional crude (plus lease condensate) production has not increased over the past two years, and various sources, including the international IEA, the US’ EIA, the JODI database and World Oil all show year-to-year average crude production falling a little in the 2006-2007 period, somewhere in the -0.4% to -1.5% range.

For now, depletion is beating conventional oil production.

… Even if oil does peak and demand remains positive, the effects might not be all that bad. Alternatives would begin to come on strong, as market forces, while lagging, would nevertheless kick in with surprising speed. Sure, we might have to get used to “stagflation” again for awhile. And if energy prices go through the roof, and gasoline costs $12 a gallon, that will still be OK to those of us who can afford it. Plus, it will have the highly desirable side effect of keeping the Third World in their…well, let’s just say in third place. (After all, if everybody gets rich enough to buy a car, who will make my $80 tennis shoes for $1 in labor?)

It’s no secret that China, India, Malaysia and Africa, all want all the “stuff” that we oily-field folks have. I don’t blame them. It’s just that, lately, they don’t seem as willing to wait a few more centuries to get it. Really high energy prices can change that. There are many ways to mitigate, even benefit from, a peak in production. So cheer up! And let’s do nothing.
(1 March 2008)
Perry A. Fischer is editor of World Oil Magazine.

This is more brazen than anything I’ve seen before, but I expect we’ll begin to see more explicit versions of “why is our oil under their sands?” as shortages develop.

Billions of Barrels of Oil May Lie Under Northern Plains
Catrin Einhorn, New York Times
An area of shale and other rock in North Dakota and Montana is estimated to hold the largest potential oil resources in the 48 contiguous states, according to an assessment released Thursday by the United States Geological Survey.

The area, known as the Bakken Formation, might contain 3 billion to 4.3 billion barrels of oil that could be extracted using current technology, the survey said.

The United States had an estimated 21 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2006, according to the Energy Department. The new assessment by the Geological Survey could raise these reserves once drilling starts.

The survey reinforces what oil companies who have flocked to the region already knew: a boom is afoot. But geologists and industry officials alike cautioned that the number was simply an estimate, easily skewed higher or lower by technological advances or economic changes. If the price of oil drops, companies will not be willing to spend as much to extract it, and the Bakken Formation, which also extends into Canada, requires an expensive technique called horizontal drilling.
(11 April 2008)

There’s Gas in Those Hills
Clifford Krauss, New York Times
… a frenzy unlike any seen in decades is unfolding here in rural Pennsylvania, and it eventually could encompass a huge chunk of the East, stretching from upstate New York to eastern Ohio and as far south as West Virginia. Companies are risking big money on a bet that this area could produce billions of dollars worth of natural gas.

A layer of rock here called the Marcellus Shale has been known for more than a century to contain gas, but it was generally not seen as economical to extract. Now, improved recovery technology, sharply higher natural gas prices and strong drilling results in a similar shale formation in north Texas are changing the calculus. A result is that a part of the country where energy supplies were long thought to be largely tapped out is suddenly ripe for gas prospecting.
(8 April 2008)