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Back to 1988 on CO2, Says NASA’s Hansen
Andrew C. Revkin, Dot Earth (NY Times journalist blog)
ames E. Hansen, the NASA climate scientist who has long had a habit of pushing past where many colleagues dare go in describing the risks posed by global warming, has done it again.
He and eight co-authors have drafted a fresh paper arguing that the world has already shot past a safe eventual atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, which they say would be around 350 parts per million, a level passed 20 years ago. (The atmosphere currently holds about 385 parts per million of the greenhouse gas.)
Looking at evidence from past climate swings and greenhouse-gas concentrations, he concludes that a sustained concentration of carbon dioxide at double the 280 parts per million that prevailed for hundreds of millenniums before the industrial revolution would – after a host of slowly-responding feedbacks kicked in to amplify the temperature rise – result in an enormous warming of some 11 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius).
To avoid a centuries-long slide to conditions profoundly different than those that saw the rise and spread of modern civilization, the paper concludes, humans need to reverse course on emissions rapidly – no mean feat in a growing world wedded to coal and oil for decades to come, given the slow pace of change in energy technologies.
(19 March 2008)
Related: Joseph Romm’s commentary at Climate Progress.
Ireland’s rich, green scenery may fade to brown
The Irish American Climate Project
Ireland’s rich, green scenery may fade to brown, its potato crop may again whither, and the island’s classic soft rains may turn harsh if climate change continues unabated. Heavy rains in some parts of the island could lead to serious erosion. And bog bursts – when masses of peat slide down slopes like a California mudslide – are expected to be more common.
These findings are outlined in our report, “Changing Shades of Green: The environmental and cultural impacts of climate change in Ireland.” The report is based on the latest work of leading Irish climate scientists, and was issued in conjunction with ICARUS, the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units.
Despite these findings, we take an upbeat tone, suggesting that celebrations are in order on and around St. Patrick’s Day. We celebrate Irish culture. We celebrate the Irish landscape in all its rich, green beauty. And we celebrate the fact that it’s not too late to stave off the worst of these projected impacts. Those who wish to keep Ireland green have a role to play, and it starts with making our own green choices – at home, at work, in our communities and when we vote.
(March 2008)
The full report and selections are available online. Related from Reuters: Climate Change Could Turn Ireland’s Green To Brown.
Glaciers melt ‘at fastest rate in past 5,000 years’
Juliette Jowit and Robin McKie, The Observer
The world’s glaciers are melting faster than at any time since records began, threatening catastrophe for hundreds of millions of people and their eco-systems.
The details are revealed in the latest report from the World Glacier Monitoring Service and will add to growing alarm about the rise in sea levels and increased instances of flooding, avalanches and drought.
Based on historical records and other evidence, the rate at which the glaciers are melting is also thought to be faster that at any time in the past 5,000 years, said Professor Wilfried Haeberli, director of the monitoring service. ‘There’s no absolute proof, but nevertheless the evidence is strong: this is really extraordinary.’
(16 March 2008)
Related articles. Suggested by Big Gav.
Global Warming Rushes Timing of Spring
Seth Borenstein, AP via Forbes
WASHINGTON – The capital’s famous cherry trees are primed to burst out in a perfect pink peak about the end of this month. Thirty years ago, the trees usually waited to bloom till around April 5.
In central California, the first of the field skipper sachem, a drab little butterfly, was fluttering about on March 12. Just 25 years ago, that creature predictably emerged there anywhere from mid-April to mid-May.
And sneezes are coming earlier in Philadelphia. On March 9, when allergist Dr. Donald Dvorin set up his monitor, maple pollen was already heavy in the air. Less than two decades ago, that pollen couldn’t be measured until late April.
Pollen is bursting. Critters are stirring. Buds are swelling. Biologists are worrying.
“The alarm clock that all the plants and animals are listening to is running too fast,” Stanford University biologist Terry Root said.
Blame global warming.
The fingerprints of man-made climate change are evident in seasonal timing changes for thousands of species on Earth, according to dozens of studies and last year’s authoritative report by the Nobel Prize-winning international climate scientists.
(19 March 2008)
