Geopolitics – Nov 15

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Latin America’s New Petro-Politics
Nadia Martinez, Petroleum World via Znet
In his 2006 State of the Union address, President Bush famously stated that “America is addicted to oil.” He soon followed that proclamation with an announcement that his solution to the addiction is to diversify U.S. sources of oil — not to diversify away from oil with clean, renewable sources of energy. That is sure to mean increased U.S. political attention to Latin America. Oil multinationals are already looking to intensify drilling operations in Latin America, because that’s where the oil is. The U.S. government and oil and gas companies are likely to pressure Latin American countries like Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador — already major suppliers of oil to U.S. markets — to ramp up production and to exploit new oil and gas fields. And Big Oil is likely to propose new exploration and development projects in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Bolivia and Peru as the industry struggles to maintain a steady flow of energy resources to the North.

But the political landscape is rapidly evolving in Latin America, with traditional docility to U.S. economic and political demands giving way. As Latin American citizens express their discontent with conservative economic policies by electing more left-leaning leaders, countries are increasingly turning away from multinational energy companies and shifting their energy policies inward, nationally and regionally.

That approach is not likely to sit well with policymakers in Washington, or industry executives in Houston

Although Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has become the Bush administration’s least favorite pundit, he is one of several new leaders in Latin America who are vowing to run their countries differently than their predecessors, and becoming very popular because of it. Behind Chavez’s blunt style and provocative speeches, such as the one at the United Nations when he referred to President Bush as the devil, is a discourse that is resonating with voters from Mexico to Argentina. Particularly the poorest Latin Americans see in leaders like Chavez a sign of hope for improving their deteriorating conditions.

Nadia Martinez is co-director of the Sustainable Energy and Economy Network (SEEN), a project of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
(14 November 2007)
Also at Znet.

Another Consequence of High Priced Oil: Large Sums of U.S. Assets Purchase by Arab Gulf States Flush With Petroleum Dollars
Floyd Associates
In September 2007 in a complex set of transactions, Dubai proposed to acquire 19.9 percent of the NASDAQ, placing the Arab nation in an ownership position of a key U.S. stock exchange. Earlier in the year through the state owned holding company for Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and Dubai International Financial Exchange (DIFX), Borse Dubai, the country announced a public all-cash offer to the shareholders of OMX AB, the Nordic Stock Exchange, headquartered in Stockholm Sweden.

This recent acquisitions of ownership in U.S. and European entities by private and state-owned Middle Eastern entities are just part of the flood of oil wealth spilling from the region. Middle Eastern investments in the United States have been on the rise since mid 2006 and have been showing constant gains since the tense period following September 11, 2001. While some of these takeovers are triggering alarm, most famously the purchase by Dubai Ports World of a seaports management firm, others are evoking warm welcomes.

…So what does all this mean for U.S. businesses? Besides the obvious opportunities in raising capital through Middle Eastern funds, it is important to understand the forces behind the emerging interest in U.S. businesses. Behind such transactions are two powerful forces. One, of course, is the high price of energy, which has left several oil-producing Arab countries swimming in cash. The other is the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit, $726 billion last year, which means that the United States needs foreign capital; a country that imports more than it exports must cover the gap with money from abroad.
(14 November 2007)

The New American Consensus on International Cooperation (PDF)
Public Opinion Strategies and Peter D. Hart Research
A presentation of key findings from focus groups and a national surfey

… A new cluster of issues such as dependence on foreign oil, America’s relationships with other countries, and environmental issues like global warming are beginning to significantly impact what issues voters are most concerned about that confront our country.

While terrorism is still the focus, the issues of dependence on foreign oil and the need to improve our country’s relationship with other countries have become issues of dominant concern. [28-37%, depending on the group]

Public Opinion Strategies and Peter D. Hart Research conducted a series of nine focus groups in July 2007 on behalf of the United Nations Foundation.

(Bill McInturff, Liz Harrington and Geoff Garin)
(November 2007)
Not emphasized in the presentation is the finding that “Environmental issues like global warming” was high up in the list of “Most important international issues.”