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Report from ASPO: Dark clouds, no silver linings
John Kingston, Platts Report
It is difficult to walk out of the peak oil meeting here in Houston and not feel miserable.
Yes, there are some attendees who might be considered a bit offbeat, ex-hippie types who see their long-held dreams of “the end of oil” nearing reality.
But the majority of the 500+ attendees at the US meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil are not in that category. They are geologists, economists, professors, consultants, economists. And no matter who steps up to the podium to make a presentation, the forecast is grim.
The details differ, but the broad message is consistent. Saudi oil production has peaked, according to some; others see a peak in the future, but a peak nonetheless. Jeffrey Brown, an independent geologist, was particularly bleak on Thursday, showing how exports from the world’s biggest exporters, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are going to run up against a combination of increasing domestic demand at home and declining or flat production, and shipments to other countries are going to fall, if they haven’t already.
David Hughes of the Canadian Geological Survey, echoed Matt Simmons, peak oil’s best known proselytizer and the day’s luncheon speaker, in saying that there will be a coming conflict between the world’s desire to cut carbon emissions against sustainability of energy supplies, and that the latter will win out. He called it “the elephant that is going to be sitting on our chest.”
The mainstream media is not covering the issue, thundered a few other speakers, and the world’s leaders need to wake up the general public to the growing problem. (The Barrel was surprised, in an era of now $90 oil, that media attendance seemed to be minimal.)
And so on. That’s the overriding message, but here are a few specific items:
–If there was one sort of optimistic, smiley-face place to be, it was outside the main hall, where a plug-in hybrid was on display. It was organized by Plug-in Partners, which is under the direction of the city of Austin, Texas. …
–David Pimentel of Cornell has long been academia’s leading critic of ethanol, but he has company. Dr. Kyriacos Zygourakis, a professor of chemical & biomolecular engineering at Rice, delivered his verdict on biofuels. His key points …
—Several speakers touched on a familiar topic, that even if the world wants to consume more coal, or build more nuclear plants, or put up more windmills, the rate at which that is going to need to occur is staggering. …
All in all, a terrific conference. But don’t attend unless you’ve taken your Prozac.
(18 October 2007)
Houston ASPO Day 2 part 1
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
This is the fourth segment on the ASPO Conference and follows a report on the Workshop day, the first morning report, and the rest of Thursday.
We pick up on Friday morning, which began with a talk by Peter Tertzakian on the impact of resource constraints. He began by showing the rate at which the electric light was adopted into American homes, noting that essentially 100% was not reached until the 1980’s from inception in 1890. Initially the rate of change was very slow. To make a change there has to be a compelling alternative at a cheaper price, and yet as energy consumption has grown there has been a pattern. First the economy grows, then pressure starts to build up, then there is a breaking point, with the introduction of “a magic bullet”, and the cycle restarts. We have reached a point where the cycle has reached the breaking point – and now we look for the magic bullet. He pointed out that this occurred early in Japan in the 1970’s, and that they made the switch and by adding LNG and nuclear they have been able to stabilize oil consumption.
Oil, however, has many attractive properties, so why should we now change from it? From the 1908 arrival of the model T car growth has led us to congestion, urban growth and commuting times that have increased more than 20%. And change is not necessarily productive, after buying fluorescent lights, he now leaves them on longer.
(21 October 2007)
Heinberg interview
Peak Everything: Waking up to the Century of Declines (Audio)
Jim Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour
Richard Heinberg is one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil (oil depletion) educators and is a Research Fellow of Post Carbon Institute. He is the award-winning author of seven books including Powerdown, The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World; and The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse.
Mr. Heinberg is a journalist, educator, lecturer, and a Core Faculty member of New College of California, where he teaches a program on “Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community.” His monthly MuseLetter has been published since 1992 and his essays and articles have appeared widely and in many languages.
(9 October 2007)
Contributor William Tamblyn writes:
I have now had a chance to listen to Jim Puplava’s interview with Richard Heinberg and I want to recommend it to one and all. It’s one of the best interviews I’ve heard in a long time.
Heinberg says “we’re really unquestionably looking at a lower energy future”, and throughout the interview he provides evidence for that view and looks at its implications.
P.S. – I hope a transcript will be available before long but there is none yet, I just checked Puplava’s site does have links to the interview in Win Amp andMp3 formats for those who
prefer one of those: tinyurl.com/2m39uf and tinyurl.com/24lyyk )
The Tar Sands and Canada’s Food System
Are beans the only cure for natural gas?
Dru Oja Jay, The Dominion
Tar sands opponents point out that burning natural gas, a relatively clean fuel, to extract oil will result in massive increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, some experts say the implications of using natural gas go far beyond global warming.
North American agriculture is deeply dependent on natural gas. Nitrogen fertilizer is chemically produced using a process that — currently — cannot be conducted efficiently without large amounts of natural gas. This fertilizer, in turn, is an essential nutrient in North America’s food production system. “In a fairly direct way,” says Darrin Qualman, Director of Research at the National Farmers Union, “natural gas is a primary feedstock for our food supply.”
While “peak oil,” the point at which global production of oil begins to decline, is subject to speculation, natural gas peaked in North America in 2003. Since then, more wells have been added, but production has declined slowly, while prices have increased sharply.
As a result, says Qualman, fertilizer companies are closing up shop and are moving their operations to places like Qatar, Egypt and Trinidad, where natural gas is cheap and plentiful, for now.
Canada has thus begun to import natural gas. At least 10 Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals are planned in Quebec, British Columbia, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, where liquified gas will be brought in from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers.
It is, he says, a cause for concern in the coming decades.
“If you’re farming in Saskatchewan or Manitoba, using a fertilizer supply based on natural gas from Alberta looks workable,” says Qualman. “But if tomorrow our fertilizer is made from natural gas sourced in Russia or the Middle East, we in effect become dependent on offshore, highly unstable supplies for our food system.”
(21 October 2007)
Peak fertilizer, peak food, peak population – a much more important cycle than the decline of car and air travel. -BA
Canadian Gas – Decline Sets in
Libelle, The Oil Drum: Canada
Canada provides a quarter of all the gas produced in Canada and the U.S.. Ninetyeight per cent of Canadian production comes from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), and almost all the rest from Atlantic Canada.
Since the year 2000, total Canadian production has been maintained at about 480 million cubic metres per day. This has been achieved only by a very considerable increase in the number of wells drilled each year. For details, see a posting I wrote in January. It is evident that such increases cannot be continued indefinitely. Under these circumstances, when drilling levels off, output begins to fall, and an actual decrease in drilling leads to even faster decline. When gas prices were in the region of $15 per gigajoule in late 2005, there was considerable enthusiasm for drilling, but in the last year the price has wandered erratically in the range of $5 to $9 per gigajoule, and costs have been high. At $7 per gigajoule, drilling has been falling, and companies are laying workers off.
(19 October 2007)
Global warming could threaten U.S. oil output
Tom Doggett, Reuters
Global warming may produce stronger hurricanes that could disrupt U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and damage ports and pipelines along the coast that move fuel supplies, a new government report said on Thursday.
The report from a team of climate change experts and scientists at seven Energy Department laboratories is the first to provide details on the impact global warming could have on the U.S. energy sector.
The report warns of more strong storms like hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 that destroyed over 100 offshore production platforms and damaged almost 600 pipelines.
(18 October 2007)
