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Will oceans surge 59 centimetres this century – or 25 metres?
Zoe Cormier, Globe & Mail
A controversial study suggests rapid polar meltdown and rising sea leavels.
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LONDON — When Al Gore predicted that climate change could lead to a 20-foot rise in sea levels, critics called him alarmist. After all, the International Panel on Climate Change, which receives input from top scientists, estimates surges of only 18 to 59 centimetres in the next century.
But a study led by James Hansen, the head of the climate science program at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University, suggests that current estimates for how high the seas could rise are way off the mark – and that in the next 100 years melting ice could sink cities in the United States to Bangladesh.
“If we follow ‘business-as-usual’ growth of greenhouse gas emissions,” he writes in an e-mail interview, “I think that we will lock in a guaranteed sea-level rise of several metres, which, frankly, means that all hell is going to break loose.”
The scientific basis for this idea – which Prof. Hansen and five co-authors gleaned from geological records, ice core samples and analysis of the sea floor – is outlined in a recent paper published by the British journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.
In stark contrast to estimates put forward by the IPCC, Prof. Hansen and his colleagues argue that rapidly melting ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland could cause oceans to swell several metres by 2100 – or maybe even as much as 25 metres, which is how much higher the oceans sat about three million years ago.
Their argument goes like this…
(25 August 2007)
Expert: Extreme heat may be norm
Jennifer McKee, Missoulian (Montana)
HELENA – The blistering heat of this past July will be the norm in less than 50 years if global warming continues as expected, a University of Montana ecologist and climate expert predicts.
Steve Running, a UM forestry professor who was one of the authors of a seminal international paper on climate change released this spring, said forecasts predict an average July in 2050 will be like the withering, record-breaking July of 2007 – with triple-digit temperatures the norm.
“You can imagine that, little by little, over the next five decades it will become more and more common to have months like we had in July,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we’re not going to have some colder months and some wetter months in July. But it’s going to be more common to have those kinds of temperatures, and in 50 years it will be the average.”
In addition to the heat, Running said another of this summer’s dominant features will likely become more common: forest fires.
Climate change is driving forest fires in a number of ways, said Running, who urged both federal and state lawmakers to set aside more money to battle wildfires as big, summertime burns are likely to be with us for a long time.
(27 August 2007)
What if climate change is worse than the forecasts?
Beryllium Sphere(r), technocrat
The new book With Speed and Violence, by former New Scientist editor Fred Pearce, explores the question of whether climate change could happen faster and go further than the IPCC range of forecasts. In short, fairly self-contained chapters ideal for skipping around in, it explores various scientists’ ideas about how climate might lurch between metastable states instead of varying smoothly with inputs.
Fred Pearce is the New Scientist’s environmental and development consultant, and used to be their news editor. He’s used to talking to scientists, and knows somethng about weighing their credibility.
He reports on a recent conference where a respected presenter replaced the usual bell curve of temperature change estimates by a curve with a long tail, offering small but realistic probabilities of temperature changes up into double digits. …
With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change
(24 August 2007)
Skeptical Science: Examining the science of global warming skepticism
John Cook, Skeptical Science
Scientific skepticism is a healthy thing. Scientists should always challenge themselves to expand their knowledge, improve their understanding and refine their theories. Yet this isn’t what happens in global warming skepticism. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and yet eagerly, even blindly embrace any argument, op-ed piece, blog, study or 15 year old that refutes AGW.
So this website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?
(August 2007)
Recommended by David Roberts at Gristmill who says:
a well-organized site devoted to tracking climate skeptic arguments and rebutting them.
Australia: Water shortage to cost dearly: expert
Leon Gettler, The Age
NOT enough water? There are only two alternatives. One is to pray for rain. The other is to pay more.
According to Paul Butler, the managing director of the British water company South East Water, customers, including business, will have to start getting used to the latter. And it could be a lot more expensive.
“I think that potentially it could be more expensive,” Mr Butler said.
“There are a lot of issues and much debate. Will the bill be affordable to large families on low income? That issue will have to be dealt with as well.
“The important thing is that both the politicians and public appreciate that water isn’t infinite and the best way to pay for the water is by the meter and by their usage.
“Ultimately if there is reduction in the availability of water, clearly the price will have to go up.”
(27 August 2007)
The drought in Australia may be a dress rehearsal for droughts in other parts of the world. -BA
