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Investigative journalist reports peak oil by 2020
Ross Solly and Nicholas Kittel, ABC Canberra
…Investigative journalist and author David Strahan decided to explore the end of oil and its ramifications in his latest book: The Last Oil Shock – A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum.
…”I think the sensible forecasts range from between around about now to around about 2020… I say between about 2010 and 2015 and I’d be absolutely astonished if it hadn’t happened by 2020.
And the CEO of the world’s forth-largest oil and gas company, Paris-based Total SA, agrees. Thierry Desmarest recently told the World Gas Conference in Amsterdam that he believes oil production will peak by around 2020 (Bloomberg).
In researching his book Mr. Strahan said he had come across many obstacles, including being denied a visa for Saudi Arabia and poor, false or misleading data provided by oil producing countries, governments, industry bodies and oil companies.
Mr. Strahan said that one of the most interesting and frightening pieces of information that he uncovered through his research was that the world, potentially, has 25 per cent less oil than we actually estimate we have left.
“The big, key five Middle Eastern OPEC countries – the Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Abu Dhabi and so forth… they, in the early 1980s, all increased their declared reserves massively – they either doubled or, in some cases, tripled their declared reserves… they all just decided that they had twice or three times as much oil as they’d previously declared. Most observers think those increases are bogus and therefore the world’s total reserves are much smaller, about 25 per cent smaller, than the official figures.”
(8 May 2007)
Preparing for ‘peak oil’
John A. Bewick, Baltimore Sun
The world has a big problem: It’s running out of oil. According to a recent Government Accountability Office report, the long-awaited “peak oil” crisis will certainly happen by 2040 – and may be happening right now.
Fortunately, President Bush has a strong energy plan in place that can be easily augmented to respond to concerns in both the oil industry and the global warming community.
According to the GAO, “Many studies indicate that oil production will peak between now and 2040.” Eleven of the 20 studies referred to in the report show peak oil production occurring now. Further, it says, “more than 60 percent of the world oil reserves are in countries where relatively unstable political conditions could constrain oil exploration and production.”
The GAO calls on the secretary of energy, in coordination with other relevant federal agencies, to establish a peak oil strategy.
Although this crisis has implications for everyone in the United State- and indeed, virtually everyone on the planet – the American public is barely aware of the issue.
…Let’s examine the Bush administration’s actions of the past several years. Mr. Bush dumbfounded his global warming critics in January when he announced a goal of producing 35 billion gallons of ethanol fuel in 2017, five times more than previous goal of 7.5 billion gallons in 2012. At the same time, he called for a 20 percent reduction in gas consumption by 2017. These bold goals are far from business as usual, and they’re only the beginning.
The Department of Energy already has a broad-based R&D program on oil substitutes such as hydrogen fuel cells and batteries for hybrid cars
John A. Bewick, a consultant on global warming who graduated from Baltimore public schools, is a former Massachusetts secretary of environmental affairs.
(29 April 2007)
It’s great to see an op-ed talking about the GAO report on peak oil. The writer seems over-optimistic about the energy proposals from the Bush administration. -BA
Peak Oil or Dependence on Russian Gas – Which is more important for Turkish Public?
Metin Gezen, USAK’s Energy Newsletter via Turkish Weekly
Peak oil is a hot subject, but hardly any Turkish energy discussion involves it. It is more about market, sales, new investments, doomed scenarios regarding the energy dependency to regional countries. But in America, peak oil is much more debated than Turkey.
There may be several reasons for that including the long history of oil, developments and intellectual accumulation over the years with experience in the US. But one of the most important factors is the increase in oil prices increases the outrage and panic with respect to the life style of today.
As an example, Turkish roads have much smaller, European/Japanese style, an increasingly diesel powered engine cars. SUVs? What are they?
… In Turkey the consumption of what is petroleum products for transportation sees a plateu. But this may be misleading because most of the cars in Turkey also uses LPG. And this has not been mentioned in this graph. Most of the cars inserted with LPG modules are generally gasoline/benzine using cars.
..Of course the data’s reliability should be checked. There is a major factor that may be affecting the reliability of the domestic oil consumption in Turkey and that is oil smuggling from Iran. The contrast between Iran’s cheap, subsidiesed oil and Turkey’s expensive and highly taxed oil turns the smuggling into an highly profitable financial activity. Neverthless Turkish authorities have launched new measures to control this activities through regulatory authority.
(7 May 2007)
The Complete User’s Guide to T. Boone Pickens
James Altucher, Yahoo Finance
T. Boone Pickens is perhaps the world’s greatest oil investor. He’s been drilling for oil, buying oil companies and running oil-based hedge funds since 1951 and right now he’s saying oil will top last year’s high of $78.80 and break through $80. “You will have to stop the demand with price,” he said at a recent Milken Conference.
Pickens believe that Peak Oil, the point after world oil production reaches maximum output, will occur sooner than later. In his fund, BP Capital — which tripled in 2005 and rose 30% in 2006 — he picks stocks that he feels will rise dramatically due to higher oil. He likes offshore drillers, alternative energy, nuclear power, natural gas, and oil. At Stockpickr.com we keep track of all of Pickens’s holdings (see link on the right).
What makes Pickens great to follow is that his investments are long-term and consistent with a single theme. He’s not actively trading these but building positions for the long-term as he sees increased demand for oil from the developing global economy, overwhelming the soon-to-be limited supply.
James Altucher is founder and CEO of Stockpickr.com, author of the book “Trade Like Warren Buffett” and partner at Formula Capital.
(no date)
