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Major shifts in the weather patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans disrupt El Nino
Press Release, Walker Institute and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
The current El Nino is showing signs of weakening due to major shifts in weather patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, scientists at the University of Reading�s Walker Institute have discovered.
Recent speculation has highlighted that the current El Nino � a dramatic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean – is likely to persist and make 2007 the warmest year on record, but in the past two to three weeks, the El Nino has shown signs of weakening because of major shifts in weather patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Whilst much of the latter part of 2006 saw reduced rainfall over Indonesia, largely as a consequence of El Nino, the last two to three weeks have recorded several extreme rainfall events in Indonesia with flooding and loss of life as the weather patterns began to change.
These major shifts in weather, seen in the sequence of satellite images shown below, are associated with an eastward propagating system known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which typically takes 30-60 days to complete a circuit of the globe and leads to dramatic changes in local and regional weather � such as periods of heavy rainfall followed by dry conditions. Extreme events such as tropical cyclones are frequently linked to active phases of the MJO.
(9 Jan 2007)
EU: Climate change will transform the face of the continent
Michael McCarthy and Stephen Castle, Independent
Europe, the richest and most fertile continent and the model for the modern world, will be devastated by climate change, the European Union predicts today.
The ecosystems that have underpinned all European societies from Ancient Greece and Rome to present-day Britain and France, and which helped European civilisation gain global pre-eminence, will be disabled by remorselessly rising temperatures, EU scientists forecast in a remarkable report which is as ominous as it is detailed.
Much of the continent’s age-old fertility, which gave the world the vine and the olive and now produces mountains of grain and dairy products, will not survive the climate change forecast for the coming century, the scientists say, and its wildlife will be devastated.
Europe’s modern lifestyles, from summer package tours to winter skiing trips, will go the same way, they say, as the Mediterranean becomes too hot for holidays and snow and ice disappear from mountain ranges such as the Alps – with enormous economic consequences. The social consequences will also be felt as heat-related deaths rise and extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, become more violent.
(10 Jan 2007)
Warming climate may prove costly for Washington state, study warns
Warren Cornwall, Seattle Times
A warming climate could cost Washington governments and businesses tens of millions of dollars every year in drought-stricken crops, forest fires and tightened water supplies, according to a new state study.
It is the first such analysis illuminating how rising temperatures and shifting snow patterns could ripple through the economy.
Yakima Valley farmers could experience more crop losses as snowpack declines. Forest fires could double in size, driving up the costs of fighting them and hurting tourism. Dairies in Whatcom County might produce less milk. Cities, including Seattle, could spend millions more on water conservation or expand their water-storage dams. More than 50 square miles of Washington land could wind up underwater if sea levels rise two feet.
(11 Jan 2007)
A few ground rules for saving the oceans
Kenneth R. Weiss, Los Angeles Times
…Industrial civilization is overloading the oceans with nutrients – compounds of nitrogen, carbon, iron and phosphorous. Algae, jellyfish and other primitive life forms are thriving in this new environment, while corals, marine mammals and many fish species are struggling.
Government and industry officials, with the benefit of scientific studies, can now pinpoint the multitude of pollution sources. They also know how to fix the problems, said Paul Faeth, executive vice president of the World Resources Institute in Washington, D.C. “We’ve got the tools,” he said, “but need the political will to get it done.”
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), for instance, often has failed to enforce the Clean Water Act’s requirement to stop pollutants from entering U.S. coastal waters deemed impaired, except when forced to do so by federal courts.
Dozens of cities have spent years and more than $1 million battling compliance requirements in court. In the meantime, many simple and less-expensive cleanup methods have been ignored – including the use of street sweepers to follow trash trucks and scoop up spills.
… What you can do
Even slight changes in habits and lifestyle can help improve the health of the oceans. So:
- Do not litter: About 80 percent of ocean trash comes from land.
- Bag dog and cat feces and dispose of them in the trash. Don’t flush cat litter down the toilet. Sewage treatment doesn’t remove parasites that can harm sea otters and dolphins.
- Don’t flush medicines or solvents: throw them away.
- Minimize fertilizer use. Don’t apply before rainstorms. Don’t use a hose to remove spills or residue from sidewalks and driveways. Sweep it up and put it in the trash.
- Dispose of household toxins at hazardous-waste collection centers. Recycle used motor oil and transmission fluid. When possible, use nontoxic substitutes.
- Don’t wash cars in streets or driveways. Instead, park on lawns or go to a carwash that collects the runoff.
- Avoid overwatering. Use drip irrigation whenever possible and adjust sprinklers to minimize overspraying. Plant hardy native plants that need less water.
- Plant a tree. Trees slow runoff and absorb carbon dioxide and other nutrients that otherwise end up in the ocean.
(5 Jan 2007)
Contributor Jerry McManus writes:
It’s important to be aware of the full spectrum of industrial degradation of our environment, not just peak oil and climate change.
UPDATE (Jan 12): The Nation just posted a related article about the oceans: Mutiny for the Bounty
