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Deffeyes says we passed peak in December 2005
Kenneth S. Deffeye, The View from Hubbert’s Peak
In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.
“A decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires” that I present an update on the data sources and the interpretation….
Could some new discovery come along and reverse the global oil decline? The world oil industry is a huge system: Annual production worth 1.7 trillion dollars. I don’t see anything on the horizon large enough to turn it around.
…Ethanol, fuel cells, and solar cells are not the only shimmering dreams. Methane hydrates, oil shale, and the Yucca Mountain radioactive waste depository would be better off forgotten. There are plenty of solid opportunities. Energy conservation is by far the most important. Initiatives that are already engineered and ready to go are biodiesel from palm oil, coal gasification (for both gaseous and liquid fuels), high-efficiency diesel automobiles, and revamping our food supply. Every little bit helps, but even if wind energy continues its success it will still be a little bit.
That’s it. I can now refer to the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over. I’m now an historian.
(11 February 2006)
Jeremy Leggett’s “Empty Tank” (audio)
David Room, Global Public Media
Jeremy Leggett is chief executive of SolarCentury, the UK’s largest independent solar electric solutions company. In this interview he talks to GPM’s David Room about his latest book, Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Coming Global Energy Crisis.
(27 February 2006, but just posted at GPM)
New Zealand: Oil addiction – Obsessed with black gold
New Zealand Herald
We just can’t help ourselves. When it comes to cars, we’re suckers for gas-guzzling hunks of steel. New Zealanders love cars; the gruntier, the better.
Even our Government ministers have gone for thirsty beasts. As well as those speedy Crown limos at their service, Cabinet ministers have cars provided for their own use, and many choose machines that would make an oil sheik shriek with delight – Holden Commodores and Ford Falcons.
And before you go tut-tutting, their tastes in vehicles are nothing unusual in this so-called clean, green country of ours.
Like it or not, we are addicted to oil. New Zealand’s lust for black gold is insatiable, outstripping economic growth. And like junkies who can’t kick a drug habit, it’s making us go crazy – just ask those at the coalface.
(11 February 2006)
Ireland: Energy policy – We’re still in the dark
Niamh Connolly, Sunday Business Post (Ireland)
If Noel Dempsey thought a move to the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources would bring some respite from controversy, he was sorely mistaken.
As Minister for the Environment and Local Government from 1997 to 2002, Dempsey was caught up in the e-voting debacle. As Minister for Education and Science from 2002 to 2004, he had an uneasy relationship with the teachers’ unions.
Now Dempsey’s latest portfolio has become a focal point for disputes – from the development of the Corrib gas pipeline by Shell and the jailing of the Rossport Five, to rallies by fishermen over the introduction of new fines.
Little wonder that the minister last week saw the wisdom of an all-party approach to examining Ireland’s energy needs and reducing fossil fuel emissions.
Dempsey accepted in principle a suggestion by Green Party TD Eamon Ryan that ‘‘short-term electoral considerations’’ should be set aside when it came to energy.
The Danish model of consensus should be pursued on the overarching question of Ireland’s energy policy up to 2050, Ryan said. ‘‘When it comes to energy, it needs to be cheap, clean and as secure as possible. At the moment, we’re in trouble with all three.”
But the consensus proposal was shot down by both Fine Gael and Labour.
(12 February 2006)
Oil spike lubricates Japan’s economy
Hisane Masaki, Asia Times
…While posing a continued potential risk, however, high oil prices have so far had only a limited effect on the overall Japanese economy, which is among the world’s most energy-efficient. According to the International Energy Agency, Japan’s energy consumption rate – energy consumption divided by GDP – for 2003 stood at 0.11 ton of oil equivalent (TOE). This figure was half the 0.22 TOE of the US and less than an eighth of China’s 0.92 TOE. A stronger yen, which makes imports cheaper, also plays a significant role in fending off the negative impact of a sharp surge in oil prices. In 1980, when oil prices broke through the $40-per-barrel level, the currency traded at the 202-264-yen range against the US dollar. But the yen is now quoted at about 116-117 against the greenback.
In addition to the increased resilience of the economy to spikes in oil prices, most analysts cite the recycling of oil money from oil-producing countries into Japan in the form of increased investments in the Japanese financial markets, and brisk imports of Japanese manufactured goods.
(10 February 2006)
BBC World Service puts Indian energy in spotlight
BBC via The New Nation (Bangladesh)
Mark Gregory, travels the length and breadth of India investigating the country’s energy issues. His reports, ranging from power cuts to power theft, will feature in World Business Report daily at 16.30 GMT between Saturday 11 February and Saturday 18 February. It is part of the BBC World Service – Fuelling the Future mini-season which explores energy consumption around the world.
India has the fastest rising consumption of electricity of any country besides China. It is building new power stations at a quarter of the rate of China with an estimated cost of 275 billion dollars over the next 25 years and Mark explores where this money is likely to come from.
(11 February 2006)
