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Simmons and Udall: Time to discard fifty years of energy myths
Matthew Simmons and Stewart Udall, Arizona Daily Star
…To craft an intelligent response, we must begin by discarding 50 years of energy myths. Because our continent had huge reserves of oil, coal and natural gas, Americans have nurtured a set of energy illusions that have now come home, in biblical fashion, to haunt us. The most dangerous myth is that cheap energy is our birthright, that the well would never run dry.
Stewart Udall was elected to Congress more than 50 years ago, and served as secretary of the Interior during a vast expansion of the nation’s wilderness areas. For the last 35 years, Matt Simmons has been one of the world’s leading energy investment bankers, while writing widely on energy trends. One of us is a Democrat, one a Republican, but both of us believe that the nation can no longer afford fanciful, indulgent, “Alice in Wonderland” energy policies that place our economic prosperity and national security at risk. …
In short, the era of cheap energy is over. Where to from here?
More drilling? Of course we will need to do more drilling, if only to stay where we are. But research shows that more than half the energy used in this country is lost in inefficient power plants, buildings and cars.
Efficiency must be the rallying call. Conservation is, well, conservative, the single most patriotic thing we can do. Longer term, we’ve got to acquire more accurate information about the true state of the world’s aging oil fields, reorganize our work patterns, modernize our shipping and transportation systems, refurbish our aging energy infrastructure, weatherize tens of millions of buildings, and exponentially expand the production of domestic biofuels, wind and solar power, while replacing 225 million automobiles and light trucks with far more efficient vehicles. This scope of work is not optional: It is an urgent matter of national preservation. …
(20 November 2005)
How much will you pay for fuel?
Adam Porter, BBC
This is a question people often ask themselves. How much will it cost to fill my car? How much will it cost to heat my home?
But are there more hidden costs to the British citizen other than just the cash they hand over to oil companies, gas providers and electricity generators? ..
The rate of decline [in North Sea] has ranged from 6% to 17%, year-on-year. Experts say this is not surprising. “It is because the way offshore fields are developed, [which is] all in one go and produced as fast as possible, for economic reasons,” says Dr Michael Smith, head of research analysts EnergyFiles.
“When they start to decline, they do so fairly rapidly. All these big fields came on stream roughly at the same time so they have all tended to reach their maximum at the same time, then combining to decline.”
(22 November 2005)
Another excellent, fact filled article by Adam Porter. -AF
Peak Oil resolution in U.S. House of Representaives
Global Public Media
A peak oil bill has been filed in the House of Representatives with the support of the newly formed Peak Oil Caucus, founded by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (Rep, MD) and a number of co-sponsors. The members of the caucus are James McGovern, Vern Ehlers, Tom Udall, Mark Udall, Raul Grijalva, Wayne Gilchrest, Jim Moran, Dennis Moore.
Co-sponsors are Tom Udall, Virgil Goode, Raul Grijalva, Walter Jones, Tom Tancredo, Phil Gingrey, Randy Kuhl, Steve Israel, G.K. Butterfield, Mark Udall, Chris Van Hollen, Wayne Gilchrest, Al Wynn, John McHugh, Jim Moran, and Dennis Moore.
Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the `Man on the Moon’ project to address the inevitable challenges of `Peak Oil’.
(21 November 2005)
No technological fix for falling oil stocks
Nigel Wilson, The Australian
DECLINING production from the world’s major oil fields could not be made up by technological advances or the development of new discoveries, a Swedish energy expert warned yesterday.
In Perth to launch the Australian chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Professor Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University said four fields the size of the North Sea would have to be found for oil production to meet expected world demand in 2025.
“This is just not possible,” he told a meeting of transport bureaucrats.
“There is no possibility that the 65 current oil-exporting countries can lift output sufficiently to meet demand when production is declining in 54 of them.”
(22 November 2005)
Oil prices surge overnight / Aleklett interview
Andrew Geoghegan, ABC (Australia)
TONY EASTLEY: World oil prices surged overnight prompted by forecasts that the northern hemisphere may be in for a harsh winter that would stretch oil supplies. But this may just be a sign of things to come, with some oil analysts predicting that the global supply of oil may be about to peak as early as next year.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas is an international organisation of scientists, which is working to determine the timing and effect of the oil peak and subsequent decline in production. The Association has just been launched in Australia by its international President, Swedish physicist Kjell Aleklett. Professor Aleklett has been speaking to our reporter Andrew Geoghegan.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: Professor Aleklett, you’re talking about a permanent shortfall in global oil supply. Just explain to us the concept of peak oil. …
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: We’ve already seen the effect high supply and short demand have on oil prices. What effect will this have?
KJELL ALEKLETT: It depends on how you prepare for this. If you prepare for this the effect might not be so hard, and that’s one reason why we in ASPOG like to get people aware about this future.
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: So what is your organisation set up to do?
KJELL ALEKLETT: First of all, we like to inform people as much as possible about this future and that it’s coming, because when you talk about energy, it’s long-term planning. And I can mention, for instance, that the Government in Sweden now has decided to put up a committee that will try to make Sweden less dependent on oil in the year 2020. …
ANDREW GEOGHEGAN: So is this simply a matter of finding alternative energy sources?
KJELL ALEKLETT: That’s one big thing, the other thing is that you have to find an alternative way to live sometimes also, and try to be more careful when you use fossil fuel and coal and oil in the future. …
(22 November 2005)
Oil expert Daniel Yergin says the end is not near
Michael Kanellos, CNET News
Despite all the fears about oil reserves running out, it won’t happen anytime soon, said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power.
“This is not a world running out of oil anytime soon. It is a compelling image, but not the right image,” he told an audience at the International Petroleum Technology Conference in Doha, Qatar.
The problem, he said, is that skeptics often discount the role of technology in allowing oil companies to tap new reserves. In the ’70s, offshore oil drilling only went down 600 feet. Now drillers go 1,100 feet.
(21 November 2005)
