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When Does Hubbert Linearization Work?
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
An interesting question is to know when does this style of Hubbert Linearization work? The empirical answer for a small non-random sample of five countries and one state is that it always seems to work as a pretty decent rough approximation once the graph has settled down into the linear regime.
If anyone wants to post, or make, or suggest I make, a few more pictures, we can take this further. I would be particularly interested if anyone can come up with a country that has a decent section of linear regime that then goes substantially non-linear. The rest of the pictures are below the fold.
(29 September 2005)
Original post has several compelling graphs.
War. Famine. Pestilence. Death – The Peak Oil Portfolio
Big Gav, Peak Energy (Australia)
Ken Deffeyes has delivered an unusual seminar to a small investment firm in Portland. One look at my portfolio this week shows that being long energy is a thoroughly rewarding move at the moment (and I believe most of the big boys here are upping their recommendations on the energy sector this week, hence today’s large jumps in many oil and gas stocks).
…Please note that I’m not a financial adviser and only the truly unwise would go and buy shares (or take anything else I say overly seriously for that matter) based on the rantings of someone calling themself Big Gav and who pretends he is a crocodile.
(29 September 2005)
Big Gav is a great example of the power of making sense – he can call himself whatever he likes, even go off on the odd rant, but the value of the content shines through the packaging. This is why (some) blogs are flattening traditional media. -LJ
CEO of Lundin Oil is a Peak Oiler
Starvid, Peakoil.com
This is from a press conference september 1 2005. video clip
Transcript:
Journalist: The second question is about an intense debate that have been circulating in some Swedish newspaper the last couple of days. It has got to do with the Peak Oil theory and the ideas of professor Kjell Aleklett in Uppsala University. I know that Lundin has in partly been financing his researches and his work. What’s your view on the Peak Oil theory and professor Aleklett’s ideas about that?
Ashley Heppenstall: I very much believe in the theory of Peak Oil. I think the big question is when will Peak Oil occur. It’s no question in my mind that it will occur. I think that the for the last two or three years we’ve been talking about Peak Oil as a company and we were interested in helping professor Aleklett in terms of that work because we think it’s extremely important.
The simple facts are to me very easy to understand. We have continued increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it’s forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it’s producing today within the next 25 years.
At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it’s been finding. It’s been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don’t develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period.
This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. Therefore, the only thing that can give is that something got to happen on the demand side. Today is 70% of oil consumption used in transportation. Whether we like it or not, people talk about alternative forms of fueling transportation, we haven’t found a viable substitute at this point.
Even if one looks at electricity or electrical cars, the huge costs in terms of transferring our fleet to electricity will mean that it will take years to be able to achieve that. So I do agree with the Peak Oil theory. The big question is when it occurs. Ultimately, if we do reach the Peak Oil then oil prices are going to go up and at some point it’s got to have an impact on demand. The world’s a very bright place; there’s a lot of intelligent people around and somebody will find an alternative. That’s in part, I think, driving the oil price, or part of the oil price, today.
(29 September 2005)
PO Conference in New Hampshire Oct 8
Monadnock Institute for Community Advancement and Sustainability (MICAS)
On Saturday, October 8, from 5-9pm, Keene State College in Keene, NH is hosting the Monadnock Peak Oil and Sustainability Conference. “Peak oil” is the point at which world production of oil reaches its maximum and begins an irreversible decline. The conference aims to help local communities begin to organize for a future where energy is more scarce and expensive.
Conference presenters include: Professor Michael T. Klare, author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum; John Howe, author of The End of Fossil Fuel Energy, and inventor of a solar-powered tractor and woodlot operation in Maine; Jim Merkel, author of Radical Simplicity and originator of the ecological footprint concept, and currently the Sustainability Coordinator at Dartmouth.
Opening remarks will be by New Hampshire’s own Doris “Granny D” Haddock, author of You’re Never Too Old to Raise a Little Hell and Walking Across America in My Ninetieth year.
The conference will be held in the Young Student Center at Keene State College. Suggested Donation is $8 for adults; $4 for students with ID. Organized by Monadnock Institute for Community Advancement and Sustainability
(29 September 2005)
Mentioned by jmdumais at a thread at peakoil-dot-com.
Peak Oil means era of cheap gas is over
Bob Bowden, Desoto Sun Herald (Florida)
If a former Shell Oil researcher and Princeton professor named Kenneth Deffeyes is correct, this Thanksgiving will be a momentous date in history.
No, not because it marks the centennial of downtown Arcadia burning down.
In the bigger picture, Nov. 25, according to Deffeyes, is the date that we reach what is called Peak Oil. On that date, half of the oil ever available — 2 trillion barrels — will have been used up. Supply will never again be able to meet demand.
(29 September 2005)
Peak Oil’s now a subject for columnists in local newspapers! Guess we should all pack it in then, our work is done.. 😉 -LJ
