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IEA Official: Oil ‘like a girlfriend’ – leave her before she leaves you
Jerome a Paris, Daily Kos
Le Monde reveals today that the IEA (International Energy Agency), the official energy watchdog for the Western countries, will announce in its yearly report, due to be published on 7 November, that non-OPEC oil will peak around 2010 and that we should all get ready to make serious efforts to lower our consumption.
Conventional oil will start declining, but the West may still see a stable production profile for some additional time if enough investment is made into non-conventional oil (shale oil, oil sands). Otherwise it will see a steep decline.
The upcoming report is said to adapt as a mantra a much tougher message: “Save energy. Save oil. Diversify. Get out of oil!”
…But the IEA has decided to publicise – and dramatise – that information a lot more, as suggested by this quote, used in the title, which comes the chief economist of the IEA, Fathi Birol:
Oil is like a girlfriend. You know that she will leave you at some point in the future. To avoid a heartbreak, you should leave her behind!
That sounds about right (discounting what may be a slightly sexist example). We know this (the end of cheap oil) will happen. We can either prepare for it, or be hurt by it when it happens.
And this is the official watchdog for energy of the West, which has historically taken a fairly upbeat vision of the oil markets.
When will we listen?
(1X September 2005)
Let’s hope that someone translates the Le Monde article cited by Jerome: (La production pétrolière des pays non OPEP décroîtra “juste après 2010”, prévient l’AIE (in French). Or – dare we hope? – perhaps the English-speaking media might pick up this story on their own. -BA
(19 September 2005)
Petrotheism (FLASH animation)
Mark Fiore, Working For Change
Short animated cartoon about the worship of petroleum, and the secret that dare not tell its name.
(15 September 2005)
Also at SF Gate.
The Peak Oil War – A World Peace Story (141 KB PDF)
Pat Murphy, The Community Solution
This is a fictional resolution of the Middle East conflict, and climate change. Our world teeters on the brink of resource wars for oil and
gas. The protagonists are the Western world, the eighteen percent of the world represented by the nations in the Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD), and that part of the Islam world in the Middle East which, fortunately or unfortunately for them, contains two-thirds of the world’s oil and a similar share of the natural gas.
Peak Oil, the day when oil production reaches its maximum and begins a steady decline until it is gone in 40-50 years, is fast approaching.
Its approach correlates with the increasing tensions in the world. If a world war comes, it may well be fought with nuclear weapons in the Middle East. The fable of Armageddon could well be a reality.
(September 2005)
A 37-page vision of the future from Community Solution, sponsor of the coming Peak Oil conference in Yellow Springs, Ohio, and creator of many essays and presentations. For more material, see the Community Solution website. -BA
New Poster Illustrates History, Impending Peak of World Oil Production
SF Informatics, press release
The Trends driving high oil prices come to life in “The Oil Age” Poster, promoting awareness of global energy limits. SF Informatics, in association with Global Public Media, today announced the release of an authoritative new poster entitled “The Oil Age: World Oil Production 1859-2050.” Packed with detailed charts and historical annotations, the poster traces the history of the Oil Age from its 19th century roots to its rise as the engine powering modern industrial economies.
SAN FRANCISCO, California (PRWEB) September 18, 2005 — SF Informatics, in association with Global Public Media, today announced the release of an authoritative new poster entitled “The Oil Age: World Oil Production 1859-2050.” Packed with detailed charts and historical annotations, the poster traces the history of the Oil Age from its 19th century roots to its rise as the engine powering modern industrial economies.
The poster’s main chart features a year-by-year rendering of world oil production based on the projections of Colin Campbell, a leading authority on oil depletion issues and co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). His model projects an all-time peak in world oil production this decade.
…In a series of detailed insets, The Oil Age poster displays current energy statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Agency, BP Statistical Review and other industry sources. With the cost of oil and gas soaring to record highs in recent months, the poster offers students, educators and journalists a clear and comprehensive resource for understanding the global oil situation.
“The primary goal of The Oil Age poster is to increase awareness of the critical role of oil in modern industrial society, and to call attention to the impending worldwide peak in oil production,” said Julian Darley, director of Global Public Media, a non profit organization and the poster’s primary sponsor.
Copies of The Oil Age poster can be purchased at www.oilposter.org. Sales will help fund the no-cost distribution of the poster to high schools, universities and non-profit institutions worldwide. Proceeds will also support the development of teaching guides and other educational tools to be used in conjunction with the poster.
(18 September 2005)
Dry Kingdom: Matt Simmons on The Brian Lehrer Show (AUDIO)
Brian Lehrer Show via Global Public Media
Matthew Simmons, investment banker and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, says Saudi oil reserves are peaking with dire consequences for world fuel consumption.
While on a tour of Saudi oil production facilities two years ago, Texas oilman Matthew Simmons saw some numbers that didn’t seem to add up. Simmons looked into the matter, and concluded that the kingdom’s reserves were about to peak with serious consequences for the world’s oil supply.
(30 August 2005; but just posted on GPM)
Manuel Collares-Pereira discusses energy after 2005 ASPO conference, Lisbon (VIDEO)
Dave Room, Global Public Media
Manuel Collares-Pereira (Coordinating Investigator of the Department of Renewable Energy, National Institute of Energy and Industrial Technology, Portugal) discusses energy peak with Global Public Media’s Dave Room after the ASPO workshop in Lisbon, Portugal in May 2005.
(19 May 2005; but just posted on GPM)
Experts disagree on how long oil supply will last
George Jahn, Associated Press (via Chicago Sun-Times)
VIENNA, Austria — Fact: World oil production will peak someday, and supplies will start running out. But when will the tipping point come — in years, decades or a couple of months from now?
The oil industry says crude will be plentiful for at least another generation. But some experts argue reserves are overstated, oil technologies are limited and demand, sharply boosted by the needs of China and India, could soon outpace supply.
(18 September 2005)
Fairly good summary of the Peak Oil arguments from Associated Press. It’s a significant article because, since it was distributed by AP, it will appear in multiple publications.
